COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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SWP's back said:
Yeah it’s much worse than Ebola and SARS. The kill rate of Ebola means it has a relatively low R0 as it’s infectious once symptoms appear.

So for 80% it’s a bit crap but not too bad.

For 20% it means a respirator and intensive care. Put it this way, for a home sell out of 55,000, say Madrid, that would mean 11,000 needing intensive care and 550 dying.

It’s not bad odds but how many would like to go to a game if they were told that 550, pretty much at random, we’re going to be marched out, lined up against a wall and shot?

And if the WHO are correct, it means 1,320 die for that sample size.
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Well look on the bright side,The rags hold 76,000
 
lancs blue said:
Panic buy update - the local Aldi has bog rolls stacked floor to ceiling so no worries there. Curiously the shelves have been stripped of tinned spaghetti hoops and tinned sweetcorn - weird.
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Whats all this shit with buying fking Bog rolls,all off a sudden,(is it to do with RM game plus EUFA)
just seen i guy take out a thief in OZ,gets high5 from the cops.next vid truck carry bog roll set alight,next every cu.t in OZ buying fking bog rolls..
Fk me Frannie,must be making some serious money now..
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
The majority that die are elderly and those with other ailments. So that probably isn't a fair reflection as these people are likley to make up a very small proportion of a football crowd.
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Unless you’re old or have an underlying condition then it can go up to 8-10% rather than 1-4%. Those people are still people and that’s how percentages work. The same number will die (possibly less, possibly more).
 
kippax4ever said:
Whats all this shit with buying fking Bog rolls,all off a sudden,(is it to do with RM game plus EUFA)
just seen i guy take out a thief in OZ,gets high5 from the cops.next vid truck carry bog roll set alight,next every cu.t in OZ buying fking bog rolls..
Fk me Frannie,must be making some serious money now..
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From what I can tell its people panicking if a town / city gets quarentened. can you imagine running out of bog roll and not being able to get any for a couple of months?

however odds are these are things that shops will get back in with no problems even under quarenteen measures.
 
marco said:
so acording to some dude on sky were lokking at a 3 month period in cases of infection rising then flatten off for three weeks then a 3 month decrease until its gone. so acording to that we should be good around August/September
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My hols are in September so it works for me. At the moment I'm trying to work out the best time to isolate myself on stat sick pay.
I'm thinking 2 weeks prior to the bin lids being off but as we know the first cough from a teacher and they will all be in Wetherspoons for the foreseeable.
 
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Back to work for me later after my hols to engage with people who you can be absolutely assured will not be washing their hands or remotely concerned about hygiene and health. I am worried about it as I have mild although well managed asthma. Hope they have dished out plenty of the hand sanitiser bottles.
 
Got to love how utterly shite we can be at times.

UK government just announced an extra £46m of additional spending to help fight coronavirus. So that's what 60p each then? FFS.

At the same time, the US just announced an extra $8,300m of additional spending to help fight coronavirus.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
The majority that die are elderly and those with other ailments. So that probably isn't a fair reflection as these people are likley to make up a very small proportion of a football crowd.
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Not a go at you, but I think many might be surprised how many match-going fans are in the high risk population for this virus.
 
Hospital 4am as i was breathless despite inhalers,my area have to go to a local smaller hospital to be assessed by a dr,had a nebuliser and iv loading dose of antibiotics and tablets to take and i have been tested and told to stay at home
 
domalino said:
Very good article here -

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html


China's number of new cases has dropped by 94% over the last 2 months, from 3,000+ a day to 200. They're starting to go back to normal.

I'm not sure western governments are going to respond with the same speed or aggression though.
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Unfortunately, not only are western governments generally not responding with the same speed and aggression, they cannot respond in anything resembling the way China has, for many reasons. China has unique set of conditions that allowed them to contain the virus as they did.

And part of the reason the cases are declining so precipitously is that China actually took their already draconian measures to yet another level over the last month — to an extent that absolutely cannot be recreated in almost any other nation.

But it’s also worth noting that those numbers may not be entirely accurate, as they are still vetted through Chinese central authority and they have previous (and fairly good motive) for massaging them.

That’s not to say I think western governments are fully doing what they can, by any means. I think most aren’t actually even doing that. So they are not only incapable of taking the drastic action China has, they aren’t generally availing themselves of many of the options they are capable of undertaking.
 
karen7 said:
Hospital 4am as i was breathless despite inhalers,my area have to go to a local smaller hospital to be assessed by a dr,had a nebuliser and iv loading dose of antibiotics and tablets to take and i have been tested and told to stay at home
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Don't panic Karen - you're VERY unlikely to have caught it this early. Get well soon.
 
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