COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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paulchapo said:
There is no point in going as everywhere is shut in Spain and the Canary islands for at least two weeks. The beaches are cordoned off and swimming pools in hotels. The police are threatening to fine and/or jail people for walking outside. I know someone who's hotel just closed down and kicked him out. Rynair won't refund and are still flying people out by all accounts.
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They live there so should be ok. In england they dont have their own house and stay at my house, my brothers etc whilst they are here. Far worse for them here than being in ibiza i think.
 
Fred_Quimby said:
With all this talk of 70+ don't forget fit and healthy young people will also die from this virus.
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This is why people are talking about 70+

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Tricky_Trev said:
Or hopefully less if Whitty is right and the real rate is closer to 0.5% taking account the milder cases.
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I dont trust Whitty or anything remotely connected with the government. That said I do think that there has been a considerable amount of people already had this virus, and am bloody sure it has been knocking about here for at least a month longer than they first reckoned. The more I hear the more I am suspicious that I myself might well have had it from a trip to Malaga at the end of January.

So Whitty may well have a point and that the mortality rate maybe considerably lower than currently thought. That at least would be a bit of good news amidst all the bad.
 
George Hannah said:
It's a question of judgement, the UK argues that the South Korean response, after initial success in restricting the spread of the virus, will allow the epidemic to continue for a much longer period because the majority of the population will not gain immunity that infection will bring. Our response is to allow the virus to run its course while protecting vulnerable groups.
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So what you're saying is our government ( and plenty of others ) just gave up instead of taking the strong measures others have and that the WHO are pleading for.

Only takes 1 or 2 reasonably large countries though to take this from a containable situation into the clusterfuck we're in now.

If every country had stamped on this hard and fast like China/Korea then we could have contained it.
 
domalino said:
Where have you gotten a year from?
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We were dividing every by 12 months as the experts expect this to be around until spring 2021.

If you’re saying only 6 months then you should be doubling the amount needing hospitalisation as well.

The figures you and I were commenting on (333,000 per month then halving using your best case scenario of the majority of those 40m being younger reduced it to 166,000 per month. But that’s over 12 months).
 
George Hannah said:
You must be confusing me with someone else - I have offered no opinion on projected numbers - 'anecdotal' or 'official' - the product of modelling used by the government advisors is the one I would trust if that's any help.
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I think you mentioned in a previous post that you had some experience in this area with scientific papers etc. Is there anything in particular that you are waiting to analyse in the modelling when it is released that you feel will be important beyond the data to what would trigger further steps? For me it's how they are factoring in the lag times for the data and how they will coincide this with any decisions to effect a periodic lockdown, but I'm no scientist or have any previous experience in studying these papers and suspect there should be other notes that may be more important that we should look out for.
 
purplenose said:
I dont trust Whitty or anything remotely connected with the government. That said I do think that there has been a considerable amount of people already had this virus, and am bloody sure it has been knocking about here for at least a month longer than they first reckoned. The more I hear the more I am suspicious that I myself might well have had it from a trip to Malaga at the end of January.

So Whitty may well have a point and that the mortality rate maybe considerably lower than currently thought. That at least would be a bit of good news amidst all the bad.
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This is something I'm clinging on to. Hopefully this virus has already been through a fair chunk of the population before we even heard about it. Somebody asked about the possibility of this yesterday. Do we know when the existence of Covid 19 was first announced?
 
TCIB said:
Bloody annoying isn't it trying to get them to see sense. My mum likes to go to the shop daily for fresh bread, vine ripened tomatoes and a load of other highly perishable posh stuff. She even understands the issue is serious but has some sort of mental block that she can carry on as is. Thusly me and my sisters are now doing her shopping whilst trying to keep it all nice and fresh but moving to stuff that can be stored with more ease. She likes her nice grub so a few frozen lobster tails have been chucked in the freezer, stuff like that as opposed to a rack of lamb that will only keep a very short time unless frozen (she has an aversion to freezing nice meat from hazeldines butchers).

Told her to knock the dog walking club on the head for a bit as they all go for a brew in lyme park after doing their walk in the woods. It is just not hitting home that she needs to take very real precautions and possibly sees me telling her what i have as over the top and mean spirited, super annoying to see her look at me like i am going out of my way to take away things she enjoys. She knows i am not nasty like that but it is taking a bloody eternity for her to come to terms with the changes.

Told my sisters not to let thier kids take the great grand kids to mums as a load were planning to seemingly oblivious to the obvious danger to doing so, exasperating would be wording it kindly "do i need to get the fucking crayons out Kate, the kids are high risk carriers due to the large interaction with others they have at school" that neice got the hump but i had enough explaining stuff that should have been bloody obvious so she can sulk all she wants, her uppity "ill do what i want" attitude can fuck off. If she does take her brood to mums i'll go fucking ape shit.
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As you know G. we are now in lockdown here in Spain with Police having powers to give fines to people ignoring the exceptions to staying at home.
As an older person I had to drive this morning to the chemists in our local village. The 2 meter rule is being observed with tape separating pharmacist from us and us doing the same in his shop. As yet everything is not a problem, in fact Doctors operating as normal without too many customers with all observing the 2 meter rule and online appointments made for specific times.
Our local town still awaits its first confirmed patient however only 2 confirmed in nearest towns about 20 k away. No doubt things will change but at least lockdown will help to minimise its spread. Helps with schools shut of course but still early days. In fact only boredom to worry about.
 
grunge said:
3 days doubling is the speed known cases are increase, this could be down to the speed of testing increasing rather than infection rates themselves. I admit im guilty of using the known cases speed increases before now but since it was pointed out that testing speeds have increased as well skewing that figure i've tried to just go off the official figures.

6/7 days is what most studies say this thing spreads at. dropping that to 5 is a massive difference.

our experts say we are 10/14 weeks from the peek so dropping it from 7 to 5 is 4 more doublings in that 10 weeks.

10 doublings from todays( known cases ) figures is 1.4m people. 14 doublings is 22.8m.
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As you say, the decrease is worrying - on the basis of current government advice there is no point in denying the situation ahead is going to be very challenging but we will meet those challenges.
 
M18CTID said:
This is something I'm clinging on to. Hopefully this virus has already been through a fair chunk of the population before we even heard about it. Somebody asked about the possibility of this yesterday. Do we know when the existence of Covid 19 was first announced?
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31st December.
 
paulchapo said:
There is no point in going as everywhere is shut in Spain and the Canary islands for at least two weeks. The beaches are cordoned off and swimming pools in hotels. The police are threatening to fine and/or jail people for walking outside. I know someone who's hotel just closed down and kicked him out. Rynair won't refund and are still flying people out by all accounts.
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The airlines are taking the piss on this. Sure, I get that they're in grave danger of going bust due to this but you'd have thought anywhere going into lockdown would lead to all flights being cancelled with immediate effect, with measures brought in to fly anyone back home. The same has happened with Malta - their government announced at the back end of last week that everyone arriving into the country would be going into quarantine in their hotel rooms for 14 days and anyone caught out on the streets would be fined 1000 Euros, yet the airlines were still flying people in after that announcement.
 
grunge said:
3 days doubling is the speed known cases are increase, this could be down to the speed of testing increasing rather than infection rates themselves.
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If anything then the rate of spread amongst untested patients would be greater, since the proportion of those tested becomes smaller and smaller as the large numbers of infected, untested people goes up.

But actually, I think the rate of increase thus far is common across all stats; tested, untested, seriously ill, dead. For that not to be true then there would have to be a shift over time in the proportions of people falling ill and dying, and whereas that could occur over many weeks, there's no evidence to suggest it's occuring now.

Right now, I summise, numbers of dead (d) equates to n1 infected people we know about (tested) and n2 infected people we don't know about. To date we've seen the same rate of rise in d and n1, so logical to assume same rate of rise in d2 as well.
 
goalmole said:
I've made the decision to keep my kids off school from tomorrow. Also to isolate my 78 year old mother to her room on a voluntary basis to avoid further problems down the line. I'm quite prepared to give up work to stay at home to cut down the chances of being infected and therefore cut down the chances of infecting my family.
Any thoughts on where I would stand legally by keeping my kids off school?
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I kept mine off from last week.

I was told I was overreacting and causing unnecessary panic by the headteacher and the best place for my daughter was school.

She told me absence would go down as unauthorised.

I doubt any fines will be handed out at the end of all this for any parent who kept kids off school
 
paulchapo said:
There is no point in going as everywhere is shut in Spain and the Canary islands for at least two weeks. The beaches are cordoned off and swimming pools in hotels. The police are threatening to fine and/or jail people for walking outside. I know someone who's hotel just closed down and kicked him out. Rynair won't refund and are still flying people out by all accounts.
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Fuck me chapo,kicked him out our rep came to see us last night 18-00 good guy gave us some good info most probs coming home Saturday they seem to want everybody of the islands.
 
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