COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SWP's back]

This is why people are talking about 70+

Can you find anything on hospitalisation by demographic?

 

[George Hannah]

3 days doubling is the speed known cases are increase, this could be down to the speed of testing increasing rather than infection rates themselves. I admit im guilty of using the known cases speed increases before now but since it was pointed out that testing speeds have increased as well skewing that figure i've tried to just go off the official figures.

6/7 days is what most studies say this thing spreads at. dropping that to 5 is a massive difference.

our experts say we are 10/14 weeks from the peek so dropping it from 7 to 5 is 4 more doublings in that 10 weeks.

10 doublings from todays( known cases ) figures is 1.4m people. 14 doublings is 22.8m.

As you say, the decrease is worrying - on the basis of current government advice there is no point in denying the situation ahead is going to be very challenging but we will meet those challenges.

 

[SWP's back]

This is something I'm clinging on to. Hopefully this virus has already been through a fair chunk of the population before we even heard about it. Somebody asked about the possibility of this yesterday. Do we know when the existence of Covid 19 was first announced?

31st December.

 

[domalino]

Can you find anything on hospitalisation by demographic?

Haven't been able to so far.

 

[JRockBlues]

If you can...

 

[M18CTID]

There is no point in going as everywhere is shut in Spain and the Canary islands for at least two weeks. The beaches are cordoned off and swimming pools in hotels. The police are threatening to fine and/or jail people for walking outside. I know someone who's hotel just closed down and kicked him out. Rynair won't refund and are still flying people out by all accounts.

The airlines are taking the piss on this. Sure, I get that they're in grave danger of going bust due to this but you'd have thought anywhere going into lockdown would lead to all flights being cancelled with immediate effect, with measures brought in to fly anyone back home. The same has happened with Malta - their government announced at the back end of last week that everyone arriving into the country would be going into quarantine in their hotel rooms for 14 days and anyone caught out on the streets would be fined 1000 Euros, yet the airlines were still flying people in after that announcement.

 

[Chippy_boy]

3 days doubling is the speed known cases are increase, this could be down to the speed of testing increasing rather than infection rates themselves.

If anything then the rate of spread amongst untested patients would be greater, since the proportion of those tested becomes smaller and smaller as the large numbers of infected, untested people goes up.

But actually, I think the rate of increase thus far is common across all stats; tested, untested, seriously ill, dead. For that not to be true then there would have to be a shift over time in the proportions of people falling ill and dying, and whereas that could occur over many weeks, there's no evidence to suggest it's occuring now.

Right now, I summise, numbers of dead (d) equates to n1 infected people we know about (tested) and n2 infected people we don't know about. To date we've seen the same rate of rise in d and n1, so logical to assume same rate of rise in d2 as well.

 

[route46]

I've made the decision to keep my kids off school from tomorrow. Also to isolate my 78 year old mother to her room on a voluntary basis to avoid further problems down the line. I'm quite prepared to give up work to stay at home to cut down the chances of being infected and therefore cut down the chances of infecting my family.
Any thoughts on where I would stand legally by keeping my kids off school?

I kept mine off from last week.

I was told I was overreacting and causing unnecessary panic by the headteacher and the best place for my daughter was school.

She told me absence would go down as unauthorised.

I doubt any fines will be handed out at the end of all this for any parent who kept kids off school

 

[M18CTID]

31st December.

Thanks Sam - a little sooner than I thought which maybe some crumb of comfort in amongst all this

 

[DRINKLEVEDRY]

There is no point in going as everywhere is shut in Spain and the Canary islands for at least two weeks. The beaches are cordoned off and swimming pools in hotels. The police are threatening to fine and/or jail people for walking outside. I know someone who's hotel just closed down and kicked him out. Rynair won't refund and are still flying people out by all accounts.

Fuck me chapo,kicked him out our rep came to see us last night 18-00 good guy gave us some good info most probs coming home Saturday they seem to want everybody of the islands.