COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Gelsons Dad said:
She's saying that because there is no evidence for this virus because no one has examined this yet. It would be extremely unusual for there to be no immunity.

WHO is not promoting antibody testing for political reasons. They are going to be embarrassed again as the data comes in.
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The latest UK antibody tests showed that a successful test is possible but that one only worked consistently for people over the age of 40. There were no false +ves
As to not being immune - let's see. The South Korean viral test gives a small number of false +ves. The disease may also hide for a few weeks so a test subject may have appeared cured but wasn't.
 
SB Blue said:
Yes, but in the overweight elderly people is the BMI itself the comorbidity factor or is it another underlying condition which may or not be related to being overweight?

Age, gender and underlying health conditions seem to be clearer risk factors than BMI in itself.

Maybe I’m missing something as you’re one of the most knowledgeable on this thread and I enjoy reading the your insights, even though I don’t always understand all the data.
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BMI may be a contributory factor to being ill but its underlying health conditions that leed to most deaths.
Specifically Heart conditions, Dimentia, Diabetes and High Blood pressure.
My daughter can't even think of a scientific reason why Dimentia is a death trigger except for general frailty.
BTW death is virtually always a cytokine storm where the bodies imune system goes crazy and starts attacking the body.
 
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Gelsons Dad said:
Specificity good, sensitivity bad.
they need both if you want to role out quick tests outside labs. It's coming I'm sure. But how soon?
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Who knows. Pretty much an unlimited amount of cash is being thrown at the situation to find a solution though.
 
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Gelsons Dad said:
Specificity good, sensitivity bad.
they need both if you want to role out quick tests outside labs. It's coming I'm sure. But how soon?
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What do you mean re the first sentence and the tests? Sorry, late at night and my brain isn't working properly.
 
twosips said:
What do you mean re the first sentence and the tests? Sorry, late at night and my brain isn't working properly.
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Specificity measures how well the test relates to the target virus. Is it specific to only Covid19, or would it generate a positive for other viruses too like SARS, MERS and other coronaviruses.
Sensitivity measures how well the test does in relation to low levels of virus.

Ideally a test should be both highly specific and highly sensitive.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
so a test needs to have high specificity. this means it detects only the target antibodies and isn't fooled by similar proteans. it's Specific to covid-19 antibodies. This they have achieved now.
Second is sensitivity. How many need to be in a sample for the test to recognise them? This is where the variation is now. There are lab tests that are very sensitive so they will give a positive from a low count of antibodies but the quick tests are much less sensitive so they give negatives when the lab test gives a positive.
For there to be any antibodies there must have been an infection. For there to be no antibodies there was probably no recent infection. Tricky stuff. If the test isn't sensitive enough it will give a negative result when it should be positive. a false negative.
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Thanks. Would this have any affect on the reports that low levels of antibodies were detected in u40s, and thus they're potentially not immune. As in, could it just be the tests were not sensitive enough to pick enough antibodies up? Or am I clutching at straws here and is that a different thing entirely?
 
Gelsons Dad said:
You are exactly correct.
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Interesting and good to know. So basically there's a chance that this whole worry about u40s lacking immunity potentially could be false and it's just not very sensitive tests. Find it strange that those reports didn't float that possibility. Fingers crossed hey!

Anyone know where we're at in the UK in terms of nearly having tests sensitive enough?
 
Gelsons Dad said:
You are exactly correct.
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I really do hope your right.

correct me if I’m wrong but The antibody tests being run in the UK and from what I read are where the under 40’s research came from were being carried out by Porten Down labs? Not exactly a tin pot set up, if they’ve struggled then everyone will.

hopefully either I’ve mixed it up or the articles did as I’m only finding the 1 article on telegraph about it now.
 
I've just had a test for work, took less than 5 minutes. Just a quick blood sample taken and a result in a few minutes.

I believe its only a check for viral antibodies so normal flu would show a positive but anyone that tested positive would then be sent for a specific covid-19 test.

They've managed to do thousands of staff so far, seems a smart way to do it.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Remove other co-morbidities and BMI is still a big factor. All the data shows fatties are at a much higher risk regardless of other factors. i can use the term fatties because I use to be one.
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It’s an Internet forum, any poster can use whatever term they want as long as it’s within the CoC.

In the current situation with mental health high in people’s thoughts, I think it’s a poor choice of terminology.
 
inchy14 said:
But they’re not are they, it’s quiet as fuck pretty much everywhere.
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Well not really, that is why I wrote it.
There are loads of people out dog walking and cycling around here.
I drive for a living and I do different runs as far apart as Barrow in Furness to Stranraer, lots of lovely countryside, teaming with full kit wankers on bikes, a few are by themselves but there are plenty in small groups.
Same for dog walkers I have never seen as many different dogs on the route that we use for our dog.
 
Manc in London said:
That's not high. I am a fairly athletic build, some say, too slim. I ride an exercise bike at around 400 watts for an hour three times a week, do resistance exercises and light weights. I also eat healthily and drink sensibly. My waist is 30-32". I am 24.6.

Average BMI in the UK is 29.
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As I mention earlier. Waist circumference is a much better gauge. My BMI is over 25 but I’m 6’ 4” and have a 32” waist and 46” chest and exercise for north of 10 hours per week.

But BMI is still a better guide than none at all. And obviously if people have higher BMI’s and don’t exercise then it would be hard to claim muscle mass.
 
paulchapo said:
We have it easy here. I have a friend who lives in Tenerife and her three kids haven't left the apartment in about six weeks, maybe longer. Not even allowed out for a walk or exercise which I think is draconian and mentally unhealthy.
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My kids (and me) left apartment only once in more than month now. We were on a mountain for few hours few days ago. It's OK with me as that's just bit more extreme than my usual life, I work grom home and I'm not going out too much anyway, but for kids is bit too much. Parents haven't leave our apartment for whole that period though. It's only the wife that occasionally go out, but that's pretty much to see doctor few times and for local grocery.

My parents came to my home only few days before lockdown, so I couldn't move temporary to my in-laws rural home, that would be great if I could, at least kids could be out. But I just could not leave them alone as they are banned completely to leave the house and are bit old to take care of themselves alone anyway.

I'd just like if they could lift restrictions of kids going out. I'd be happy enough with that. So I could go play some football with my kid.
 
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MCFC_ Phil said:
The common cold is one of the Coronavirus. We have not produced a vaccine yet. Herd immunity is the only way. Our chief scientific officer let the cat out of the bag months ago -as long as the NHS is not over whelmed we can cope. It's only this. Alas this thing will run it's course and we can only mitigate
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Common cold is a nothing disease so it's not profitable to spend billions of dollars and scientific human resources to make a vaccine, and billions to regularly use it each year. It's silly to compare that to this one which paralyzed whole world. It's seriously silly. Borderline stupid. This one is not comparable with regular flu which is much harder than common cold. Even SARS and MERS, who are seriously dangerous fuckers, stopped getting a financing as soon as they stopped spreading.

And the most important thing of all is that nobody still has fuck all idea if you actually get immune once you had it, so the herd immunity approach is nothing but a bet at the moment.
 
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