COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[St.Pauli support]

The sooner we get an idea of infection rates the better but looks like there are big differences across the regions.


“Around 5% of Briton's had been infected with Covid-19 at the start of April, according to a new study from St Andrew's University.

The study also found Scotland had a lower infection rate than England by 3 April.

Infection rates were highest in urban areas, with more than 10% of London's population predicted to have been infected.

Meanwhile some remote and rural areas of the UK had not seen any cases at all.

Professor Hill Kulu said: “The good news is that because the coronavirus is not widely spread, and the number of active cases has declined during the lockdown, its suppression and control is possible with various public health measures before the cure and vaccine become available."

Whatever his assumptions are based on, 5% would be an astonishing high number IMO.

5% Britons are about 3.39m, whereas roughly 40k where tested positive early April.

That would be a dark figure of 98.8%. Wow.
We still don't know about true cases
and if we have had many asymptomatics without any antibody production
we will never know unless we would be able to detect that kind of immunogical memory.

Anyway, seems too high for me but hopefully we get a clearer view some day.

 

[blueparrot]

But you can’t base policy on what one person may or may not do so we use an average. How’s that nonsense ? It goes without saying that one person could possibly infect hundreds but it also goes without saying that 100 people could infect nobody.

You weren’t talking about policy when you said this

“
There is a low risk, you don’t understand risk. If R is 1 for example then with all the people one encounters it is only passed to one other person ie a low risk”

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

You weren’t talking about policy when you said this

“
There is a low risk, you don’t understand risk. If R is 1 for example then with all the people one encounters it is only passed to one other person ie a low risk”

Ok just to clarify then I phrased that wrongly and I wholly understand that 1 is the average

 

[blueparrot]

Whatever his assumptions are based on, 5% would be an astonishing high number IMO.

5% Britons are about 3.39m, whereas roughly 40k where tested positive early April.

That would be a dark figure of 98.8%. Wow.
We still don't know about true cases
and if we have had many asymptomatics without any antibody production
we will never know unless we would be able to detect that kind of immunogical memory.

Anyway, seems too high for me but hopefully we get a clearer view some day.

We still have little idea. However look at the footballers testing positive I assume none were showing symptoms and had any idea they were carrying. Read the other day of the BBC health reporter that had the antibody test the government are buying, just to try it and was amazed to find he’d had it and had anti bodies. The big unknown is those that have had or have it asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. In April we still only really testing those hospitalised.

 

[Vic]

He wasn't ill at the time. His wife was though. I'm sure you can confirm this yourself. It's not difficult.

It is actually.

His wife wrote that he had symptoms ("felt weird") before they travelled. They could both have been "incapacitated" on the journey. She wrote about how ill he got (worse than her) but omitted that they'd not stayed at home.

 

[blueparrot]

Ok just to clarify then I phrased that wrongly and I wholly understand that 1 is the average

Fair enough.

 

[kaz7]

I am no fan of Cummings.

However in terms of your post, it is not one rule for him and one for everyone else. It's one set of rules for everyone and it is up to everyone to decide how they wish to interpret them and the extent to which they want to stick to them.

Apparently he broke the rules (honestly I don't know the details - I have not been following it). Like millions of other people have also broken the rules yet about whom there is no which hunt. The PM has backed him so essentially that's the end of it. In a sane world, people would think honestly who the fuck cares and we would move on.

But I agree the press and others will not let this drop. Why? Not because it's a really big deal, but because the press are cockroaches who will do anything for a click. And others are Tory-haters who will jump on anything anti-Tory. The faux outrage has bugger all to do with what he did. It's about who he is.

Come off it chips,the police have fined a ton of people for sunbathing in the park in march/april,it is indefensible

 

[kaz7]

Love someone to ask the scientist at the presser today about what was understood re kids transmission to adults at the time of this trip as Cummings child may have been a carrier, thankfully without symptoms. If it was deemed high, it really was not a very responsible thing for Cummings to travel and put other family members in potential danger if they needed to help out. If low, why were the schools closed ?.
Checked my local council website and they have on their front page a number to call if you are self isolating in trouble for things like support etc, we also got a letter saying the same thing. It is probably the same everywhere.

Schools were open for key workers,he had an option

 

[SWP's back]

The average is what matters.

Oh for fuck’s sake you’re an idiot. The average is currently under 1 because of social distancing and people staying away from other people. If one infected person sits in a minibus with 8 other people for any length of time, every person has a high chance of catching it.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

I have several medics in my family.
They and their partners all reported covid symptoms at various times since March.
They have all tested negative for antibodies bar one.

 

[SWP's back]

but it also goes without saying that 100 people could infect nobody.

If none of them come into fucking contact with anybody yes. That’s why there are guidelines about self isolating and social fucking distancing.

 

[kaz7]

Until I discovered Cummings child was autistic I would have said he had no grounds for doing what he did at all, but his 4 year old is autistic and you can only leave such children with close friends/relatives that the child knows very, very well.
It makes no difference in politics of course. Cummings is the story now and as an advisor, he shouldn't be. There will be faux outrange from his political enemies (Tory enemies too) till Cummings is gone. It is the nature of the beast.

He has family in london,

 

[BlueAnorak]

It is actually.

His wife wrote that he had symptoms ("felt weird") before they travelled. They could both have been "incapacitated" on the journey. She wrote about how ill he got (worse than her) but omitted that they'd not stayed at home.

He wasn't though. Keep digging I'm sure you'll find what you want to find.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Oh for fuck’s sake you’re an idiot. The average is currently under because of social distancing and people staying away from other people. If one infected person sits in a minibus with 8 other people for any length of time, every person has a high chance of catching it.

Jesus, another one. Why are you oldies all so angry.

I don’t understand your point. Yes the average is lower due to lockdown, who’s saying it isn’t. Define “high” using statistical analysis and go on to explain how your minibus example is relevant

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Jesus, another one. Why are you oldies all so angry.

I don’t understand your point. Yes the average is lower due to lockdown, who’s saying it isn’t. Define “high” using statistical analysis and go on to explain how your minibus example is relevant

Whilst it's amusing to hear Sweep called an "oldie", would say you're somewhat misguided.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

If none of them come into fucking contact with anybody yes. That’s why there are guidelines about self isolating and social fucking distancing.

Read more about it. A study referenced in the times yesterday said that 80% of people who have the virus do not pass it on regardless of other factors.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

Whilst it's amusing to hear Sweep called an "oldie", would say you're somewhat misguided.

Don’t understand the abuse and hostility engendered by expressing a perfectly reasonable widely held opinion. I assumed he was old,confused and cantankerous

 

[BlueAnorak]

He has family in london,

So?
Go and find out how far away he lives from his sister and cousins and if they work don't work or were ill or not ill at the time. Also how often he sees them and whether they look after his son regularly.
On second thoughts don't bother.
He chose his parents for two good reasons. His child could go to them if he and his wife became really ill and because of his Mothers impending grief.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

Ok just to clarify then I phrased that wrongly and I wholly understand that 1 is the average

You don't need to clarify. Rt is by it's own definition the average rate of transmission. As the only published values quoted are either national or regional there is no need to specify anything else unless one wished to make up fantasy numbers to prove a point. And no if an infected person met 100 people he would not infect all 100 of them. That is simply not how it works. If it were the whole world would be infected by now.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Don’t understand the abuse and hostility engendered by expressing a perfectly reasonable widely held opinion. I assumed he was old,confused and cantankerous

Just because it's widely held doesn't make it valid. There's millions of tag along Liverpool fans, they think it's great to attach their soul to the cult. They're wrong, they're cunts.