COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Claytop]

This one might be better..


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis


‘’11 February – Prediction that mass testing will end

Sage predicts an eventual end for any attempt at mass testing and contact tracing, saying it is not possible for the UK to accelerate coronavirus testing capacity alongside regular flu testing. It recommendeds that Public Health England establishes a criteria for when “contact tracing is no longer worthwhile”


‘18 February – PHE contact tracing limited

Sage concludes that “priorities would shift during a potential outbreak from containment and isolation on to delay and, finally, to case management”. It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.’

5!!

Christ, only got to these ones so far..

 

[Exeter Blue I am here]

It sounds like @Exeter Blue I am here lives in a rough And apparetly stupid part!
Where I am in Walthamstow is quiet, but I don't tend to go to the central area. The marshes/wetlands aren't completely heaving at weekends.
Some groups of 6 or so, and packs of cyclists clogging up towpaths!

Agree with him that the easing feels too early by a few weeks at least.

I wouldn’t call Sutton or Carshalton rough by any stretch. Not even the huge St Helier estate comes anywhere close to places like Peckham or Tottenham. It’s just that are quite a few nice parks and they are absolutely rammed with people - mainly groups of teenagers, but also family groups - most of whom seem to have completely abandoned social distancing. To be fair, if I was 16 I’d probably happily “forget” about Covid19 as well, if rolling around on a picnic blanket with some bird was on offer.....

 

[Claytop]

From 13th March meeting...


‘24. SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid- 19 will cause a second peak. SAGE advises that it is a near certainty that countries such as China, where heavy suppression is underway, will experience a second peak once measures are relaxed.’

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I wouldn’t call Sutton or Carshalton rough by any stretch. Not even the huge St Helier estate comes anywhere close to places like Peckham or Tottenham. It’s just that are quite a few nice parks and they are absolutely rammed with people - mainly groups of teenagers, but also family groups - most of whom seem to have completely abandoned social distancing. To be fair, if I was 16 I’d probably happily “forget” about Covid19 as well, if rolling around on a picnic blanket with some bird was on offer.....

Parts of E17 may be like that, and I may be too wrapped up in myself to notice.

 

[MeatnSpudsMCFC]

Guess we’re not following the science anymore.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Guess we’re not following the science anymore.

I never really know what they mean when they say we might have to live with this forever and there might always be some sort of physical distancing in place. What does that entail? Football matches with crowds might never happen again? Pubs can't be rammed full on a Saturday night again? Kids can't hug and kiss their grandparents again? Or something as simple as all businesses and organisations must provide more hand sanitizers and do more to actively encourage staff and customers to use them?

Vague statements such as the one quoted only serves to cause panic.

 

[paulchapo]

Guess we’re not following the science anymore.

People aren't following the government anymore is more to the point. I have watched the lockdown slowly falling apart week by week, the glorious weather hasn't helped, nor has the Cummings fiasco. The sensible amongst us who can will remain cautious but lot's won't.

 

[somapop]

I agree. Basically humans not being humans forever. Problem with trying to write about this creatively.
Best listen to the non emotional virologists & epidemiologists who actually (long term) see positives in this.

 

[paulchapo]

I never really know what they mean when they say we might have to live with this forever and there might always be some sort of physical distancing in place. What does that entail? Football matches with crowds might never happen again? Pubs can't be rammed full on a Saturday night again? Kids can't hug and kiss their grandparents again? Or something as simple as all businesses and organisations must provide more hand sanitizers and do more to actively encourage staff and customers to use them?

Vague statements such as the one quoted only serves to cause panic.

People won't live this way, it will be a kind of slow living death. Better to keep partying until you succumb.

 

[Mike N]

At least we’re following the ‘best medical advice in the world’!

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

I live in London and I can tell you it’s fucked. Since the ending of lockdown 2 weeks ago, no-one has given a flying fuck about social distancing. No-one has masks on public transport, the parks are rammed with large groups of teenagers draped all over each other, no-one ever gets out of the way on a pavement or in a shop, front gardens have become plastic chaired meeting places for friends and neighbours every evening, and indeed the only nod to social distancing at all are the queuing systems still in place at the large supermarkets. In my opinion, there is no prospect of ever getting the genie back in the bottle if a 2nd lockdown is required, which it unquestionably will be the way we’re going. We are sleepwalking into an almighty second wave, and instead of getting a grip on any of it, all that mussy haired Tory bastard in Downing Street does is keep serving up further “easings”, without waiting to see what impact the previous easing has had, first. I wouldn’t want to be working for an NHS Trust here in about 3 weeks time.

Can only see the same happening up here. Give someone an inch and they will take a mile. The only difference being I think Sturgeon would have no qualms about rolling back to a strict lockdown.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Guess we’re not following the science anymore.

Well thats the view of some (TWO members) anyway. I'm sure the media will report that number correctly
Other sage members are happy for it to open with contact tracing in place.

 

[SilverFox2]

Is it possible that the Gov knows it has made many mistakes and this latest relaxation is an attempt to cover all by ultimately blaming the public for not conforming?
In other words the Gov has a win, win of blame the medico and / or the public, we did our best.

 

[Gabriel]

Is it possible that the Gov knows it has made many mistakes and this latest relaxation is an attempt to cover all by ultimately blaming the public for not conforming?
In other words the Gov has a win, win of blame the medico and / or the public, we did our best.

There will be an inquiry and blame will be apportioned equally, but by the time it delivers its findings, those left alive will be reeling so much in the economic fallout that the horror of this time will be but a distant memory.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

At least we’re following the ‘best medical advice in the world’!

It's one thing having the advice but the timing and order of decisions are down to the politicians (informed by the evidence). It looks like the timing (late lockdown) and order (eg closing borders after easing the domestic lockdown) may have been very significant in our death toll. I just hope that the infections and deaths continue to diminish.

 

[Claytop]

It's one thing having the advice but the timing and order of decisions are down to the politicians (informed by the evidence). It looks like the timing (late lockdown) and order (eg closing borders after easing the domestic lockdown) may have been very significant in our death toll. I just hope that the infections and deaths continue to diminish.

Tbf the Sage advice on the 13th March was that seeking to completely suppress the virus (lockdown) would lead to a 2nd peak.

This was John Edmunds from Sage in that date.



I think it’s clear that the science unfortunately got it wrong at the start of the epidemic here.

 

[twosips]

Feels like we're running on a barely healed broken leg while everyone else is tentatively taking their first steps.

 

[Ric]

Feels like we're running on a barely healed broken leg while everyone else is tentatively taking their first steps.

It’s absolute madness to ease the lockdown whilst the figures (both deaths and new infections) are still so high. A second peak seems almost inevitable.

 

[waspish]

What’s the numbers with the virus who are going into hospital is this dropping a lot? This will be the cue for another lockdown if the figures increase rapidly.

 

[SilverFox2]

Feels like we're running on a barely healed broken leg while everyone else is tentatively taking their firist steps.

I think thats fair comment.
Here in Spain the whole country was on total lockdown for a couple of months until they sorted out the hotspot areas.
In the last few weeks Provinces within Autonomous Areas are allowed to go from stage 0 to stage 1 only if they met the medical standards, almost competition so that Madrid is only just qualifies for stage 1 whereas Almeria say has already had a full week of stage 2.
We accept our travel is only within our Almeria Province and that if face masks must be worn in public places (effectively cuts down the 2 metre rule to 1 metre). by protecting others.
Nothing is perfect and we have been warned of potential flareups but our dreadful start was contained and gradually things are normalising .
Incidentally at stage 2 the Government allows the individual Province to decide on school opening but here we have said definitely not. Not sure if any other areas have said yes.