COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
BlueAnorak said:
14 day isolation unessesay says top German Science advisor.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...s-unnecessary-claims-germanys-top-government/

He's probably right. 95% of people develop systems within 5.8 days
Click to expand...

Just wanted to add that Prof. Drosten stated in the same podcast (with NDR radio)
that he has analyzed the Japanese CV strategy which wasn't much in public focus,
and he now wants to change German strategy to that Japanese way.

It's about dispersion K (after we know about R...) which says about 80% are infected by only 20% so called superspreaders during superspreading events (Ischgl, hospitals, care homes, slaughterhouses...).

After indentifying superspreaders all contacts are immediately declared as infected and isolated BEFORE waiting for test results. Drosten wants to follow that road in Germany to avoid a 2nd wave even later in autumn/winter.
 
146 English hospital deaths reported from yesterday. Scotland + 22. Wales + 14.

Most of the English deaths (30%) in north west again.

20 of those 146 were from yesterday.

We are still sub 200 deaths on every day in England even with daily add ons all the way back to May 9.

Scottish data good again too - 55 new cases only, 1114 in hospital (down 102 on yesterday) and only 33 in ICU (down 7). That was over 200 a few weeks ago.
 
Last edited:
EZRMz-5XQAABprx
 
If you look at the 5 day totals on Gelson's graph and compare with 7 days ago it looks superficially good. The on day report for previous day falls from 30 to 20. But when you get to the 4th and 5th days and compare the added on totals today with 7 days ago the drop is much less clear.

When you remember the deaths are really a picture of our efforts 3 weeks ago to suppress the virus and how things have changed since it is a little worrying.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Be fucking gutted if you fall in the severe bracket!
Click to expand...
Well yes, but there are benefits.
Remdesivir and blood plasma if given early may be of great benefit.
Early hospitalization helps.
For example instant hospitalization on low O2 in Germany is just one reason one reason why deaths are so much lower there.
 
Last edited:
Marvin said:
Yes. We did not understand the virus but it was novel.

We know it's not 'flu now. But we should also remember that this is a viral epidemic and that just 2 years ago 'flu had a 50,000 excess mortality in the UK. Fear and anxiety is out of control. The lockdown itself is damaging.

We need a means of controlling the epidemic until it has run its course. That's all the lockdown was ever designed to do but it is is extremely inefficient. Testing and quarantining the infected is an obvious way forward.

What I would like to know is what is capping the virus growth across the world? Many of the epidemics seem to turn around like clockwork even when antibody rates are quite low. In New York they've been doing antibody testing and found that in many zip-codes in the Bronx antibody rates are at ~40%, and there's one part of Brooklyn where it's at 45% but generally speaking the antibody rates are much lower. The UK briefing put it at 6.78% for the UK. Does that mean that only 6.78% of people have had the virus? Do people like children, or asymptomatics generate antibodies? I have heard they do but if that's the case I don't see why the epidemics are receding across Europe when measured immunity is so low.

Perhaps it is a combination of many factors. I hope one is not seasonality because that implies it could return.

There are many impoverished nations whose economies are too weak to sustain lockdowns. People question their reporting but you cannot hide mass death. It is a mystery as to why with one or two exceptions that Western Europe is one of the worst affected regions and that the undeveloped world has not done so badly. Perhaps it is too soon to say. I think maybe Covid19 is an illness that overwhelms weakened immune systems and if you think about it is the 'top-heavy' (age) in advanced societies.
Click to expand...
As far as can be told those who have symptoms develop antibodies - the worse the symptoms the more antibodies. I have yet to see any evidence though of asymptomatic cases having antibodies.
 
BlueAnorak said:
As far as can be told those who have symptoms develop antibodies - the worse the symptoms the more antibodies. I have yet to see any evidence though of asymptomatic cases having antibodies.
Click to expand...

Which might be an issue if most cases are I deed asymptomatic?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
That's where the T cells come in... (I think!)
Click to expand...
This is the problem, if they could come up with a way to test who has had it without antibodies and who it just won't affect, we could get back to some sort of normality. For all we know half the population could have had it. I think the size of a second wave, if any, will be an indication of past infection.
 
Claytop said:
Tbf the Sage advice on the 13th March was that seeking to completely suppress the virus (lockdown) would lead to a 2nd peak.

This was John Edmunds from Sage in that date.



I think it’s clear that the science unfortunately got it wrong at the start of the epidemic here.
Click to expand...


I don’t think SAGE have covered themselves in glory either (including this chap)!but what he’s saying that virtually everybody has to have resistance to the virus to eliminate the thread is probably true. Most of the expert say this approach is unrealistic unless you have a vaccine and the death toll was going to be even more horrendous by blindly seeking herd immunity.

Some of the “follow the science” stuff is really about following the WHO’s recommended procedures including test, trace and isolate. IMHO we needed a more bureaucratic and less of a maverick approach. SAGE said some of their key decision was in formatted by a lack of texting and tracing capacity so that wasn’t following “the science” from early March.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
I don’t think SAGE have covered themselves in glory either (including this chap)!but what he’s saying that virtually everybody has to have resistance to the virus to eliminate the thread is probably true. Most of the expert say this approach is unrealistic unless you have a vaccine and the death toll was going to be even more horrendous by blindly seeking herd immunity.

Some of the “follow the science” stuff is really about following the WHO’s recommended procedures including test, trace and isolate. IMHO we needed a more bureaucratic and less of a maverick approach. SAGE said some of their key decision was in formatted by a lack of texting and tracing capacity so that wasn’t following “the science” from early March.
Click to expand...

‘18 February – PHE contact tracing limited

Sage concludes that “priorities would shift during a potential outbreak from containment and isolation on to delay and, finally, to case management”. It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.’


That was from one of the Sage meetings, shows we were nowhere near a position to be able to track and trace, god knows how much of a better position were in now.
 
Claytop said:
‘18 February – PHE contact tracing limited

Sage concludes that “priorities would shift during a potential outbreak from containment and isolation on to delay and, finally, to case management”. It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.’


That was from one of the Sage meetings, shows we were nowhere near a position to be able to track and trace, god knows how much of a better position were in now.
Click to expand...

Exactly
 
Incredible front page this, in many ways. Have they only put Bez on the cover because of some tenuous link to Monday?!
 
I tell you what, seeing people who mean a lot to you, even from many metres away, is pretty bloody lovely at the moment. Feel so much better. Lovely day in the sun, safely saw some friendly faces, and barely been online all day. A mildly normal day and fuck me, I needed it. Would recommend the same for anyone who has felt pretty consumed by everything recently. Everything is shite, yep, but really don't underestimate the value of seeing someone you care about, even with social distancing.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top