COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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BlueAnorak said:
I was talking to a German friend of mine this morning and one of the main reasons he believes Germany has such a low death rate is early hospitalisation. Anyone who tested positive was put on a list and had a daily visit from a test nurse who measured blood oxygenation. If it was below 95% the patient was hospitalised.
Early hospitalisation gives a much higher chance of survival.
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We couldn't have done that as we had nowhere near enough beds, we probably have now (for the cases found), and anyone can get a test if they think they need one.
 
SWP's back said:
Karen going to about turn about face masks and their usefulness with today’s announcement do we know?
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I have always gone with the WHO and what they say about the science not standing up.i have always believed in the behavioural changes when you do wear them because people do less distancing,washing hands,they touch their face to adjust masks. and not touching your face was a big no no
The taking off and disposing of them properly or washing and drying properly
I haven't changed my mind on that really,as for bringing them in now,another thing that the gov are very late on,that and the quantene farce ,they are not having a good week
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It was full of could be, might do and perhaps and was yet more modelling data, so not RCT, peer reviewed evidence. The good thing about it was that it emphasised that masks without hand washing and social distancing are mostly useless so let’s hope this compulsory mask wearing isn’t being implemented so we can become sardine like on trains, tubes and buses.

Finally, if the modelling data presented by Karl Friston proves to be true, none of it will matter. His team predicted the the peak in London and the fall off and is based on 80% of the population not actually being susceptible to the virus which was why exponential growth has never been a realistic theory.
https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

This compliments the work of Michael Levitt who modelled 60000 U.K. deaths, based on the Diamond Princess and how a Ferguson’s modelling was always flawed.
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-pr...-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/?=refinnar
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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It was full of could be, might do and perhaps and was yet more modelling data, so not RCT, peer reviewed evidence. The good thing about it was that it emphasised that masks without hand washing and social distancing are mostly useless so let’s hope this compulsory mask wearing isn’t being implemented so we can become sardine like on trains, tubes and buses.

Finally, if the modelling data presented by Karl Friston proves to be true, none of it will matter. His team predicted the the peak in London and the fall off and is based on 80% of the population not actually being susceptible to the virus which was why exponential growth has never been a realistic theory.
https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

This compliments the work of Michael Levitt who modelled 60000 U.K. deaths, based on the Diamond Princess and how a Ferguson’s modelling was always flawed.
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-pr...-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/?=refinnar
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strangely enough I’m having dinner at his sons house next week. He had already sent me some interesting papers on his dads theory on this but at the time I didn’t post them as this thread had started to deteriorate rapidly onto shopping trolleys etc
 
grunge said:
only on public transport.

need a lot more out there, was in Tesco last night for a while and saw maybe 2 or 3 people with masks ( not including the wife and I )
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Yeah Public transport only but thats a big enough part of someones day in bigger cities. It should be actively encouraged elsewhere to.

I was the same last night in tesco in Belfast doing my weekly shop - i wear a mask and about 1 in 25 maybe the same and not staff. Then M&S across the road they have masks, Visors, gloves, the works!
 
BosnianBlue said:
almost 1500 deaths in Brazil in last 24 hours. It's a carnage there.
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Horrendous. The accelerating 31,000 tested new cases a day (there will be many more than that) is even worse as it shows the death figure wont be coming down any time soon.
 
That Spanish trick of pinning deaths reported to only those that occurred the day before is dangerous. It could be a factor in other nations judging if you are safe to visit.

So Spain welcomes tourists as it has zero deaths. But Britain is unsafe to visit as it has hundreds.

If we used the Spanish version we (or rather England only) would not have had a single day above 36 in almost the last 3 weeks. And the average for the last 6 days would be about18.


Not the much more transparent figures we post.

That is the problem with arguing Britain has the worst record for deaths. It is bad yes But we are at least good at making the numbers available to others so a true comparison is possible.

Though it took Boris a while to see that mattered.
 
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results of 1st randomised double blind trial of Hydroxychloroquine are in.

very specific trial for people who have been exposed to Covid to see if it helps prevent symptoms

Trial group size:
414 in Hydroxychloroquine group.
407 in placibo group.

Results:
11.8% of the Hydroxychloroquine group went on to develop symptoms.
14.3% of the Placebo group went on to develop symptoms.

However, there is an additional stat called the P. which ranges between 0-1. the higher the P the more likely the result could happen by chance. in this case the P=0.35, meaning a 35% chance that this could have happened by chance. to be considered a significant result it would been to be p0.05 or p0.01 for very significant.

therefore in this case there is no significant difference between the groups, so for this case Hydroxychloroquine is proven to be a dud.

Zinc/ Vit C makes no difference.

Side effects:
No serious side effects detected.
40.0% of the Hydroxychloroquine group developed side effects
16.8% of the placebo group got psychosomatic side effects ( the No-cebo effect )
 
twosips said:
Phew. It's not due to a second wave starting then, but some localised restrictions due to feared potential (small) flare ups. This will be the case everywhere, but it's unequivocally not the same as a major second wave starting. There will be hiccups on the way.
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I will have to take your word on that I can't read it.
 
twosips said:
Phew. It's not due to a second wave starting then, but some localised restrictions due to feared potential (small) flare ups. This will be the case everywhere, but it's unequivocally not the same as a major second wave starting. There will be hiccups on the way.
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Not sure what your classing as the start of a 2nd wave, local flare ups without preventative measures is the start of a second wave. its countries controlling it to prevent it taking hold and spreading.
 
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