COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[bluejon]

bluejon I have not described it as a national crisis. Just a concerning rise in numbers.

Like these

37 all settings deaths. (most in 2 months)

4926 new cases. Highest yet.

As I said, there is a slight rise in the death rate, but I (we, as in work colleagues) are not worried about these numbers at all at this moment in time. The new cases numbers are seriously in doubt primarily due to a deep concern that the tests are picking up old infections in the body. This is what happens when you leave non-NHS companies in charge of testing who aren't used to dealing with medical data.

 

[marco]

I think table service is the one good thing to come out of this, can't stand queuing at the bar. Can't see it working on Mary ds on a matchday though!

that place will be a block of flats by the time were back at football

 

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard:

London 354 - up from 282 but not close to its highest over past month. London still doing surprisingy well.

Midlands 590 - significant rise from 458 to what is their highest yet.

Yorkshire 505 - up just a little from 492 but had a couple of higher numbers in past week.

And North West 1381 - up from 1345 to second highest yet - 1402 four days ago still top here despite there being 604 fewer UK cases that day.

blujon (who I do understa#nd and respect as the expert in stats I want to be clear) can comment if I am wrong but this at least is not seeing the NW getting worse in the past few days. And does look like a kind of plateauing at least.

 

[west didsblue]

As I said, there is a slight rise in the death rate, but I (we, as in work colleagues) are not worried about these numbers at all at this moment in time. The new cases numbers are seriously in doubt primarily due to a deep concern that the tests are picking up old infections in the body. This is what happens when you leave non-NHS companies in charge of testing who aren't used to dealing with medical data.

I hope you're right and the current increases are not as significant as the authorities are making out.

 

[peoffrey]

that place will be a block of flats by the time were back at football

There's been talk of Mary D's going for a long time. It lost its sparkle for me. Long gone are the days when you could lose an elephant in the back room.

I need a hotel myself and normally end up in the Ibis place on Pollard Street about a 20 minute walk away.

 

[blueparrot]

If she, or you have covid, you will most likely pass it on to each other either way. At home, you will pass it on only to each other. In a pub, probably to other people as well. If neither of you have it, you won't catch it at home. In a pub, you may, from someone that does.

Not if we aren't touching the same surfaces, in a restaurant we won't at home we would. Seems simple to me.

 

[Scottyboi]

Regional scoreboard:

London 354 - up from 282 but not close to its highest over past month. London still doing surprisingy well.

Midlands 590 - significant rise from 458 to what is their highest yet.

Yorkshire 505 - up just a little from 492 but had a couple of higher numbers in past week.

And North West 1381 - up from 1345 to second highest yet - 1402 four days ago still top here despite there being 604 fewer UK cases that day.

blujon (who I do understa#nd and respect as the expert in stats I want to be clear) can comment if I am wrong but this at least is not seeing the NW getting worse in the past few days.

Most of these figures aren't worth the paper they are written on if heavily affected areas aren't able to test everyone that has asked for one. I reckon the north west has a lot more cases, I was off ill last week with all the symptoms of Corona and couldn't get a test, gave up in the end will just self isolate for another week and hope this cough pisses off.

 

[kaz7]

Ok fine, if you cant be bothered reading up on things can I sugest you dont stick your self righteous nose into conversations about subjects that you have little or no knowledge of, as all it does is end up antagonising other posters.

when did i do that ?

 

[i8rags]

Anyone explain the difference between a wedding and a funeral? Is COVID a little more respectful at funerals?

Funerals are last chance to say farewell, weddings can be celebrated any time in the future.

 

[kaz7]

blujon I see that argument and of course they are not skyrocketng and hopefully never do.

and the what should count as a covid death is a viable other argument.

But the majority of England hospital deaths get recorded for any day in the first five days and if you total the number of deaths at five days up to 17 September (most recent date where we have a five day total) they currently read:

28 Aug - 3 Sep Total of the 7 days = 29 (average about 4 per day)

4 Sep - 10 Sep Total of the 7 days = 49 (average 7 per day)

11 Sep - 17 Sep total of the 7 days = 79 (average over 11 per day).

In statistical terms as a non mathematician I would perceive that as a signficant increase in death numbers over 21 days. I assume I should not be doing. But intuitively it sure looks like a pretty meaningful upward curve.

You are right ,all numbers are going up and you dont wait till they are out of control to act ,it is an infectious disease that we dont have immunity to

 

[Tarzan41]

Plenty of parents home school their kids to uni level, the parents just have to be motivated ,most people cant be arsed

Some can’t be arsed sure. Most people? I’m not sure what that’s based on. We both work as essential workers because we have to. It’s been incredibly difficult maintaining schooling whilst working full time. We have done our best but it’s hardly going to be at a level children need. The suggestion that I can’t be arsed is completely ignorant and offensive.

 

[Pedestrian]

Some can’t be arsed sure. Most people? I’m not sure what that’s based on. We both work as essential workers because we have to. It’s been incredibly difficult maintaining schooling whilst working full time. We have done our best but it’s hardly going to be at a level children need. The suggestion that I can’t be arsed is completely ignorant and offensive.

Could be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I wanted to share this thread from a New York Times reporter who had COVID explaining her and her husband’s continued struggles recovering six months on from initial infection. She is fairly young and apparently didn’t have any condition that put her in the defined higher risk category.

Many statistical assessment systems class people like them as “recovered”, which masks the immense toll the virus is actually having on communities around the world (even apart from the very real health impact from economic crisis, much of which is happening because of the pandemic itself, not just the response), and is why many of us consistently say that the death rate is a very poor measure of the full impact to people (and the economy) for purposes of assessing current state and decision making for future mitigation.

 

[Healdplace]

As I said, there is a slight rise in the death rate, but I (we, as in work colleagues) are not worried about these numbers at all at this moment in time. The new cases numbers are seriously in doubt primarily due to a deep concern that the tests are picking up old infections in the body. This is what happens when you leave non-NHS companies in charge of testing who aren't used to dealing with medical data.

Fair enough and that is a sensibe concern.

 

[Tarzan41]

Could be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.

Without a doubt

 

[lancs blue]

I found the data you are referring to there, I was looking at different data, but it shows a similar trend. To put it really bluntly, when bugger all is doubled, it's still not very much. 79 people out of 70 million or so is not a national crisis.

With your background I'm sure you understand the concept of an exponential increase - if we wait for those figures to be visibly increasing exponentially it will be too late to prevent a second peak. We made that mistake first time around, national lockdown started on March 23rd at which point the number of new cases were doubling roughly every 4-5 days, by March 27th new cases had tripled relative to the 23rd. The horse had already bolted.

 

[kaz7]

Some can’t be arsed sure. Most people? I’m not sure what that’s based on. We both work as essential workers because we have to. It’s been incredibly difficult maintaining schooling whilst working full time. We have done our best but it’s hardly going to be at a level children need. The suggestion that I can’t be arsed is completely ignorant and offensive.

I didnt say you did i ?

 

[Healdplace]

You are right ,all numbers are going up and you dont wait till they are out of control to act ,it is an infectious disease that we dont have immunity to

I agree Kaz. That's why I take the view that we should hope for the best and work on the assumption that it likely will not be the worst but we may expexct sonewhere in between. So if we err on the side of caution we should be OK.

 

[kaz7]

Could be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.

Well seeing as i am sixty i dont have school aged kids

 

[Cityfan]

You're looking at the figures wrong. Covid deaths are a random variable exhibiting variance over time so being happy it going down 5 in one day, then worrying it goes up by 7 the next day is incorrect. You need to look at the long term trend which is staying static (the curve is not increasing in an upward direction). The figures have only doubled if the mean over time doubles, which it hasn't. There's also the issue that they are counting all deaths as covid if they have tested positive for covid. The numbers unfortunately aren't very accurate.

Deaths are a lagging indicator, it was generally acknowledged that we were late going into lockdown last time becuase we used deaths to look at the rate of change.
Hospitalisations and ventilator useage is increasing.
There is a choice as to whether or not to sit it out but if you decide to intervene earlier is probably better.