COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[shemnel]

Given that people showing symptoms are still booking through PCR route and the city has been in lockdown tier 3 followed by national for a month not really surprising

yes i read that at first the scheme was open to all, with symptoms or not, but that position was changed on the 5th Nov? the next round of zoe/react/ons analyses will tell us more.

also - is the liverpool testing proving asymptomism is minimal? there isnt a lot of evidence in the rest of the country to suggest cases fall off a cliff in tier 3, so you'd expect quite a few asymptomatic results in the lateral flow tests?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Expected this thread to be a lot busier this morning, but seems to have subsided a little (it's an odd time at the moment - negative/positive upper cuts every other day).

The Oxford professor (Sharrock?) was on TV this morning discussing the bionTech vaccine. Seems as positive as most others thankfully.
Seems like this own vaccine could potentially be ready for the summer so I suspect this will be seen as a longer term vaccine (far cheaper and far easier to administer logistically).
The Pfizer/BioNtech one then (if it goes ahead) will be a costly but much needed shot in the arm.

Australia are already manufacturing the Oxford/AZ vaccine.

Another question for those that *may* know: is there any minor cause of concern for a mRNA vaccine given it's not been used on humans before. This is not an anti-vaxx weighted question btw (I'm certainly far from it) but it's something that is asked a bit.
Presumably worry of a synthetic innoculation rather than from a live or remnants of a dead virus.

I have no medical background. The people that I listen to and trust are Whitty, Vallance and Van Tam. The latter for some reason gives me a lot of reassurance. If he says the vaccines are fine, that will do for me and mine.

 

[Armaan]

So people have been saying since the start that the PCR tests don’t work, now you have Dr Yeadon an ex advisor for Pfizer coming out and saying the same.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish data up first:

64 Deaths - highest since 6 May! Tragic news.

You might notice almost exactly the same date England's deaths yesterday matched last (7 May).

Cases 1261

488 Greater Glasgow, 272 Lanarkshire, 145 Lothian, 80 Ayrshire

6.5 % positive

1235 In hospital (down 4)

93 on icu ventilators (down 9).

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Scottish data up first:

64 Deaths - highest since 6 May! Tragic news.

You might notice almost exactly the same date England's deaths yesterday matched last (7 May).

Cases 1261

488 Greater Glasgow, 272 Lanarkshire, 145 Lothian, 80 Ayrshire

6.5 % positive

1235 In hospital (down 4)

93 on icu ventilators (down 9).

Very sad

 

[somapop]

Wow....not sure how to tackle that one tbf.
Never heard of him but he's very convincing in his opinions.

So people have been saying since the start that the PCR tests don’t work, now you have Dr Yeadon an ex advisor for Pfizer coming out and saying the same.

 

[shemnel]

So people have been saying since the start that the PCR tests don’t work, now you have Dr Yeadon an ex advisor for Pfizer coming out and saying the same.

There is now a lot of traction gaining around this. The fact that the tests-admissions-ICU-deaths chain is all hanging off a testing method that is nobody knows the specificity/sensitivity is worrying.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 28 v 28 v 50 v 64 today. Wednesday is always the worst day for death numbers. England today will be bad too. But it will likely be the highest in both nations until next Wednesday. It is how weekend catch up works.

Cases 1735 v 1202 v 1438 v 1261 today. Less sign of a plateau or one at too high a level here. Hence more areas in Scotland going into higher tiers from Friday. Including Perth.

Patients 873 v 1117 v 1257 v 1235 today - Patients DOWN - but then if you lose 103 to death in 48 hours numbers will go down.

ICU ventilators 72 v 85 v 94 v 93 today - decrease - but the same caveat of so many deaths will reduce these numbers.

Though it is at least good that they are not rising rapidly or a lot or they would still be outstripping the deaths.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Expected this thread to be a lot busier this morning, but seems to have subsided a little (it's an odd time at the moment - negative/positive upper cuts every other day).

The Oxford professor (Sharrock?) was on TV this morning discussing the bionTech vaccine. Seems as positive as most others thankfully.
Seems like this own vaccine could potentially be ready for the summer so I suspect this will be seen as a longer term vaccine (far cheaper and far easier to administer logistically).
The Pfizer/BioNtech one then (if it goes ahead) will be a costly but much needed shot in the arm.

Australia are already manufacturing the Oxford/AZ vaccine.

Another question for those that *may* know: is there any minor cause of concern for a mRNA vaccine given it's not been used on humans before. This is not an anti-vaxx weighted question btw (I'm certainly far from it) but it's something that is asked a bit.
Presumably worry of a synthetic innoculation rather than from a live or remnants of a dead virus.

Review article (pre covid) here on the development and potential for this type of vaccine.

I'm no expert, but I'm not aware of any specific concerns for this type of virus. The nonspecific "it's new so we can't know" of course can't be disproved (proof being for mathematics and whisky rather than clinical science...)


https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.00594/full

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Scotland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 28 v 28 v 50 v 64 today. Wednesday is always the worst day for death numbers. England today will be bad too. But it will likely be the highest in both nations until next Wednesday. It is how weekend catch up works.

Cases 1735 v 1202 v 1438 v 1261 today. Less sign of a plateau or one at too high a level here. Hence more areas in Scotland going into higher tiers from Friday. Including Perth.

Patients 873 v 1117 v 1257 v 1235 today - Patients DOWN - but then if you lose 103 to death in 48 hours numbers will go down.

ICU ventilators 72 v 85 v 94 v 93 today - decrease - but the same caveat of so many deaths will reduce these numbers.

Though it is at least good that they are not rising rapidly or a lot or they would still be outstripping the deaths.

Depressing stuff.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

This is in stark contrast to current PCR testing (with it's known false positive problems)

Just bollix.

If there was a significant degree of false positives such that we were misrepresenting the scale of the epidemic, we'd never have seen the low positivity rates reported in the July/August period/Sept period.

In the UK, positivity rates are now ~4%; in Denmark (highest testing rate in Europe) rates were close to 0.5% during the low point which gives you some idea of the worst possible rate of false positives.

Lateral flow tests as used in Liverpool are actually *more* likely to give false positives:

Coronavirus testing finally gathers speed

The imminent large-scale rollout of rapid coronavirus tests promises to aid public health responses to COVID-19 — but a rapid home test remains elusive.

www.nature.com

That's not to say that there are no issues with false positives, eg review here

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

 

[kaz7]

There are now more COVID-19 hospital patients in both regions of northern England than at the peak of the first wave of the virus,, according to the latest official data.

In North West England, 2,948 hospital patients with confirmed coronavirus were reported on 9 November.

This is 58 higher than the first-wave peak of 2,890 on 13 April.

Meanwhile, in North East England and Yorkshire, 2,999 patients were reported on 9 November - 432 above the first-wave peak of 2,567 on 9 April.

Sky rolling news

What is going on up north ?

More people in hospital than the first wave, in the states

No way are we anywhere near the end of the second wave ,we are in the middle at best

 

[kaz7]

English universities should stop in-person teaching and revert to online classes by early December to allow students to return home safely for Christmas, the government has said.Coronavirus tests will be offered to as many students as possible before they depart, ministers say.

Guidance due to be issued by the Department for Education will say that students will be allowed to travel between 3 and 9 December to make sure families can be reunited over the festive period.

 

[Healdplace]

That Dr Yeadon sells his argument well and I can see why he thinks as he does.

And goodness me if he is right the world can celebrate making itself bankrupt for nothing.

But that's the question. One country not seeing this, I can get. Many countries missing these facts I can get too if driven by ideology, just about. But every country sheepishly believing the opposite is hard to get your head around.

They must all be guided by scientists who broadly think the opposite. Why not one or two with the opposing view having had influence? And based on experience of things like the 3 waves of the 1918/1919 killer flu we SEEM to have obvious evidence that even when a virus runs unchecked as we had no real way to fight it then it can return seasonally in waves and be worse, which he seems to be denying then I can understand the reservations too.

I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle and both sides here are right to a degree. That way more have had it/are immune than realised - that as a result it likely is generally waning outside localised spikes - not getting worse widely - but that it may not yet be all but literally over as he seems to think.

Much as I would dearly love him to be right.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So people have been saying since the start that the PCR tests don’t work, now you have Dr Yeadon an ex advisor for Pfizer coming out and saying the same.

A comprehensive takedown of Yeadon's views on herd immunity here

The trouble with 'Covid denialism'

Our actions should reflect, not dismiss, the possibility of a second wave

unherd.com

 

[somapop]

Review article (pre covid) here on the development and potential for this type of vaccine.

I'm no expert, but I'm not aware of any specific concerns for this type of virus. The nonspecific "it's new so we can't know" of course can't be disproved (proof being for mathematics and whisky rather than clinical science...)


https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.00594/full

Thanks mate.

Will have a read.
No good batting concerns (real or over dramatised) if you have little knowledge in ones arsenal.

 

[Healdplace]

There are now more COVID-19 hospital patients in both regions of northern England than at the peak of the first wave of the virus,, according to the latest official data.

In North West England, 2,948 hospital patients with confirmed coronavirus were reported on 9 November.

This is 58 higher than the first-wave peak of 2,890 on 13 April.

Meanwhile, in North East England and Yorkshire, 2,999 patients were reported on 9 November - 432 above the first-wave peak of 2,567 on 9 April.

Sky rolling news

What is going on up north ?

More people in hospital than the first wave, in the states

No way are we anywhere near the end of the second wave ,we are in the middle at best

Kaz this thread was ahead of Sky News again here.

Not that I am claiming credit for that. But I have been tracking the situation on here for 2 weeks and pointed all this out over the past few days.

The raw facts disguise the nuance of how much longer it took to do that in the NW than it seemed it was going to do because numbers fell a lot over the past 10 days.

News bulletins are good at telling you raw data when some milestone is passed. Less good at seeing how they got to that point and what this means. As they are not tracking it day to day just telling a story when it happens.

 

[kaz7]

The team found that 54 days after discharge, 69% of patients were still experiencing fatigue, and 53% were suffering from persistent breathlessness. They also found that 34% still had a cough and 15% reported depression.in addition 38% of chest radiographs (X-rays) remained abnormal and 9% were getting worse.

Coronavirus: Seven in 10 hospital patients suffer from long COVID for weeks after discharge

Study finds 54 days after discharge, 69% of patients still had fatigue, and 53% were suffering from persistent breathlessness.

news.sky.com

My CT is on the 26th

 

[somapop]

That Dr Yeadon sells his argument well and I can see why he thinks as he does.

And goodness me if he is right the world can celebrate making itself bankrupt for nothing.

But that's the question. One country not seeing this, I can get. Many countries missing these facts I can get too if driven by ideology, just about. But every country sheepishly believing the opposite is hard to get your head around.

They must all be guided by scientists who broadly think the opposite. Why not one or two with the opposing view having had influence? And based on experience of things like the 3 waves of the 1918/1919 killer flu we SEEM to have obvious evidence that even when a virus runs unchecked as we had no real way to fight it then it can return seasonally in waves and be worse, which he seems to be denying then I can understand the reservations too.

I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle and both sides here are right to a degree. That way more have had it/are immune than realised - that as a result it likely is generally waning outside localised spikes - not getting worse widely - but that it may not yet be all but literally over as he seems to think.

Much as I would dearly love him to be right.

In the same camp here if I'm really honest.
Trouble is, many are nailing themselves to a certain mast and hence causing ruptures in friendships and relationships. It's affected so many people negatively you can understand.

I haven't yet read roubieux's takedown article yet.

 

[squirtyflower]

That Dr Yeadon sells his argument well and I can see why he thinks as he does.

And goodness me if he is right the world can celebrate making itself bankrupt for nothing.

But that's the question. One country not seeing this, I can get. Many countries missing these facts I can get too if driven by ideology, just about. But every country sheepishly believing the opposite is hard to get your head around.

They must all be guided by scientists who broadly think the opposite. Why not one or two with the opposing view having had influence? And based on experience of things like the 3 waves of the 1918/1919 killer flu we SEEM to have obvious evidence that even when a virus runs unchecked as we had no real way to fight it then it can return seasonally in waves and be worse, which he seems to be denying then I can understand the reservations too.

I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle and both sides here are right to a degree. That way more have had it/are immune than realised - that as a result it likely is generally waning outside localised spikes - not getting worse widely - but that it may not yet be all but literally over as he seems to think.

Much as I would dearly love him to be right.

One of the things that makes science great is the wranglings over the truth.
Throughout history theories are postulated, argued over by the experts and then proved either be to be true(ish) or false.

Unfortunately sometimes these debates are curtailed by outside influences. For example Galileo‘s theory of the solar system being ridiculed and banned by the church, and with Galileo himself put under house arrest.
Today it seems that if you have a differing opinion from the ‘norm’ it is easy to be labelled as a conspiracy nut. And Governments, big tech and others have seemingly taken sides as the true way forward with Coronavirus and shut down discussion on alternative approaches.