COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Healdplace said:
We are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.

They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.

As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.

So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).

Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
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The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.

Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?

Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?

Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.

So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
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Tier 3 with tougher restrictions so
Just to confuse everyone again.
Go to work but only if you must and all that bollocks!
 
BlueAnorak said:
Show me a year where week 52 was worse than week 51 or week 1 of the following year. It has never happened in the UK or US - EVER.
Cases start to ramp up in October then hit accelerator in November and December and reach the peak about the 3rd week in January before declining. But every time week 52 is a temporary 10%-20% drop.
Why will Covid-19 be any different?
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Week 51 normally has a spike caused by the lead up to Xmas that is why, 22nd December last year.

Not many people go to the GP in week 52, and 3rd week in Jan can still be due to Xmas holidays, or at least the NHS think so.
 
Healdplace said:
We are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.

They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.

As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.

So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).

Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
.
The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.

Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?

Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?

Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.

So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
Click to expand...
Think you've summed it up with whatever is best for London.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Show me a year where week 52 was worse than week 51 or week 1 of the following year. It has never happened in the UK or US - EVER.
Click to expand...
Below is the composite bar graph posted by @grunge some pages back - look more carefully at where the bar for week 52 in 2019 is, it's higher than the preceding weeks and the two weeks after, then the cases start to climb again to the overall high point for that season in weeks 5 and 6 of 2020.

1606034970636.png
 
Just flicking through the papers on line. Much more positive generally. Several vaccines Imminent - second wave looks to have peaked and not as bad as the first. Better treatment available. I can handle the next 3 months if we start to see a genuine road out of it. I think that is key for many, a good feel for next summer having a semblance of normality and increasingly so month on month. It has been such a testing year and surely everyone’s mental health, relationship or finances must have been impacted at some stage.

Just need City to get their arse back into gear now.
 
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Mr Partridge said:
Given how much our numbers are currently falling in Greater Manchester, it would make perfect sense for us to be put in tier 2 in December.

Yeah we all expect that to happen don't we...
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yes I think it is a possibility.
 
worsleyweb said:
Just flicking through the papers on line. Much more positive generally. Several vaccines Imminent - second wave looks to have peaked and not as bad as the first. Better treatment available. I can handle the next 3 months if we start to see a genuine road out of it. I think that is key for many, a good feel for next summer having a semblance of normality and increasingly so month on month. It has been such a testing year and surely everyone’s mental health, relationship or finances must have been impacted at some stage.

Just need City to get their arse back into gear now.
Click to expand...

Will be interesting to see how quickly the administering of a vaccine will effect the hospital numbers. I hope and pray we can get through these next few months and return to some type of normality in early summer and see a big bounce in the economy.
 
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