birchwoodgingerste
Well-Known Member
Tier 3 with tougher restrictions soWe are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.
They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.
As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.
So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).
Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
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The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.
Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?
Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?
Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.
So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
Just to confuse everyone again.
Go to work but only if you must and all that bollocks!