COVID Data Thread

Note I did not even post the Scottish hospital numbers today as there is missing data and the numbers today there are unfeasibly low from what they were yesterday so it seems to be one with a lot of patients.

Because of the asterisk in the Scottish hosptal data report and the everyday issue over the cases it was pointless posting the numbers other than the death number today. Which I did.
 
England Hospital Key Numbers

Admissions (Thursday) 1698 V 1916 last week

NW 286 V 351

Rest of data today:-


Patients 14,320 - down from 14,865 yesterday V 16,281 last week

NW 2708 - down 65

Ventilators 545 - down from 552 yesterday V 608 last week

NW 66 - down 5 V 72 last week
 
Maria van Kerkhove from the WHO on BBC 1 this morning cautioned against western nations like the UK thinking Omicron has ended the pandemic. Stressing there WILL be new variants and the reason is that we are still far from vaccinating the world. And for all the millions triple dosed in the UK there THREE BILLION out there on the planet who have not even had one. This is enough to create a petri dish for further outbreaks.
 
WALES DATA

This is for Friday only as usual on a Sunday. Sat & Sun are posted together on Mondays.

8 deaths - was 6 last week

2827 cases - was 2133 last week - a bit of a rise here again

15.5% positivity - was 14.9% last week - though less a rise here so more testing is a big factor

762 patients (Friday) - was 858 last week

27 ventilated (Friday) - was 29 last week - these are down week to week - so cases are not translating into patients or ventilated ones like they were - as elsewhere
 
Today's ZOE APP graph. Sadly showing the first clear signs the downturn IS easing off and indeed whilst ongoing cases are still falling, predicted cases and other Zoe numbers are now largely going back up again. Though fairly modestly at the moment. If this continues within the week the shallowing fall on the curve will level off.

1642941079422.png
 
ZOE APP PREDICTED DAILY AND ONGOING CASES UK - LAST TWO DAYS


Predicted cases are UP today for third straight day.


ON 147,265 UP from 2,864 - UP from 144,401 & 142, 422 yesterday.

The rise seems to be slowly increasing.

Ongoing cases are at 2,275,183 - which is down from the JAN 11 record higest ever peak of 2.750,469 by 475,286 and down 341, 609 in past week.

Two days ago the same fall was 388, 869 so this is now fdecreasing too.

These numbers are now clearly starting to edge the other way again.
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL CASES


The falls in each regions OUTSIDE THE SOUTH have mostly stopped happening AND - somewhat worryingly - ALL regions bar one are now rising.

THIS is why the numbers on Zoe are going up.

It looks rather likely NW will follow this track back up in coming weeks.




Here are the main UK regions and their track

1: NORTH EAST stays top - FROM 2681 / 3425 TO 2705 / 3448 - - a smaller rise than yesterday

2: NORTHERN IRELAND - has risen up the list more than anyone in past few days from near best into second worst FROM 1802/3196 TO 2239 / 3758

3: LONDON - has been rising but drops to third now after being out of the top 3 for some time since falling first. Rising slightly again FROM 2479/ 2792 TO 2501 / 2816

4: YORKSHIRE is fourth- FROM 2278 / 2218 TO 2338 / 2781 - a bigger rise than London

5: WEST MIDLANDS is fifth and overtakes NW just inching up FROM 2201 / 2637 TO 2207 /2642

6 Meaning NORTH WEST FALLS down to sixth place today:

FROM 2183 / 2564 TO 2101 / 2475 - a FALL and a bigger fall than yesterday here but lower in than days before


Wales takes over as best in UK despite going UP FROM 1343 / 1760 TO 1378 / 1796

Scotland stays best in UK - BUT is also UP FROM 1383 / 1740 TO 1423 / 1784


The best England region is South West but they are UP again today - like all the southern regions are - FROM 1591 / 1864 TO 1637 / 1912

As well as London and South West, South East is also back up today FROM 1938 / 2155 TO 1987 / 2206

The two Eastern regions are UP too - East by the most on 1849 / 2139 but East Midlands too on 1864 / 2269


SO THE ONLY REGION THAT WAS NOT GOING UP TODAY AND STILL FELL WAS THE NORTH WEST
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA


The area around Preston and the Ribble Valley is falling though Chorley on 73,464 is still higher than most of Greater Manchester.

The lake District has though taken the UK stop spot in past few days - Allerdale on 88,162.

West Lancashire - between Merseyside & Wigan falls again like most of the NW has been doing by 6K to 43,283.

On Merseyside numbers are falling well too - Liverpool down around 8K to 47,555. St Helens by 5k to 35,808 & Wirral flat on 38,182.

Cheshire West & Chester is up 1K on 35,900 BUT Cheshire East is inching down by 500 - on 48,485


AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - HERE ARE THE TEN BOROUGHS IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST


1 OLDHAM 16,496 - down 3K - and miles clear of the rest now

2 STOCKPORT 37,559 - has slowed right down in past few days standing still for 3 days now.

3 BOLTON 41,570 - down 5K and falling well

4 SALFORD - 45,813- down 5 K - falling fast after being 75 K a week ago

5 ROCHDALE 47,402 - down 7k and now dropping fast

6 TRAFFORD 49,254 - been very flat around here but has started to rise in past two days

7 MANCHESTER 49,888 - down 5K and also increasing its falls daily

8 TAMESIDE 68,170 - down 5K but still very high

9 BURY 75,891 - up 2 K and more than doubled in a week

10 WIGAN 78,326 - still going UP by 2K a day - risen 30 K in just over a week to highest ever
 
75 all settings deaths - was 91 last Sunday

England only 58 - was 79 last Sunday



74,799 cases - down from 75,041 last Sunday

68,913 in England - down from 73,331 yesterday BUT up from 66,273 last Sunday



No Scotland cases added are added again today as they have changed how they report them and it only works Monday to Friday. So the weekend cases will be added in tomorrow. As also happens with Wales.

Though Wales did post a number today which is included above that was cases from Friday.

Nothing like a system that is unified and simple and easy to follow and this is nothing like ....well you get the picture.

BUT below is what Scotland did post today.

Good luck working out what WILL be added by GOV UK tomorow as it will not be any of these case numbers as it has not been all week.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

CALLING ANYONE FROM MENSA TO INTERPRET

4 deaths - was 3 last week - think this is accurate (ish) (see below)

Cases:- 6329 - they have changed the wording and give no alternatives and so this MIGHT be it. Or not?

As they still add the following separately.

  • 7,162 new cases of COVID-19 reported. Of which
    • 2,971 people tested positive through only a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test
    • 85 people tested positive through a PCR test following a LFD (lateral flow device) test
    • 4,106 people tested positive through only a LFD test
As none of these give any combination that adds up to 6329 - no idea what the number really is.

Though as noted Gov UK have added ZERO saying whatever they are told it is will be added on tomorrow as will yesterdays whatever that was as this data is no lomger availabe at weekends despite the above numbers being posted.

It is most likely something more akin to 4191 not 7162 but all I am guessing.

4117 cases are what Gov UK added for last Sunday.

16.5% positivity

1441 patients - was 1567 last week

41 ventilated icu - was 44 last week

BUT even here they add:-

NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde did not submit data in time for this update; figures from Friday have been carried forward for this Board.

NB This will be the biggest board so will matter

AND

Please note that on Saturday 22 January we incorrectly reported that there were 16 patients in ICU with recently confirmed COVID-19 – we should have reported that there were 42 patients in ICU


HENCE WHY I DID NOT POST THE SCOTLAND NUMBERS YESTERDAY AS THE HOSPITAL DATA WAS OBVIOUSLY WRONG TO ANYONE SEEING THE NUMBERS DAY TO DAY
 
England Hospital Key Numbers

Admissions (Friday) 1453 V 1692 last week

LOWEST ADMISSION SINCE BOXING DAY


NW 243 V 268

All other regions down signifcantly



Rest of data today:-


Patients 14,334 - UP from 14,320 yesterday V 16,372 last week

Last week the Sunday rise was 91 - today it is 14

Northern regions are actually all DOWN today

Midlands by 63 to 2708, NE & Yorkshire by 43 to 2565 AND North West by 24 to 2684

The Southern regions go up:- East by 16 to 1275, London by 66 to 2743, South East by 29 to 1488 & South West by 39 to 877



Ventilators down yet again to 524 - down from 545 yesterday V 619 last week

NW 66 - level V 74 last week

Every region bar London (on 183 - down in week from 211) is now below 100.

South West is on just 17 - after being 26 last week, 42 the week before and 53 on 2 Jan
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Southern regions and the northern and midlands in a very clear split now just as the Zoe data has been showing. South going back up. North and MIdlands still going down.

Meanwhile North West is in SIXTH - its lowest of the new year. Matching progress on Zoe again.



SOUTH EAST on 13,026 - UP from 12,856 V 10,864 last week & 15,739 2 wks ago

LONDON on 9326 - DOWN from 10,009 V 9612 last week & 16,493 2 wks ago

EAST on 8389 - UP from 8059 V 7174 last week & 10,481 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 7857 - DOWN from 7383 V 11,049 last week & 14,560 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 7123 -UP from 6947 V 5739 last week & 8561 2 wks ago




NORTH WEST on 7019 - DOWN from 8021 V 7326 last week & 20,254 2 wks ago




YORKSHIRE on 6681 -DOWN from 7245 V 7298 last week & 13,180 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 5633 - DOWN from 5830 V 5459 last week & 10,847 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 3545 - DOWN from 3814 V 4253 last week & 10,167 2 wks ago


South East became the second England region after London to post 2 million cases last week from across the entire pandemic.

North West is today on 1,974,321 - so on current numbers is now about 3 or 4 days away from becoming the third to top this milestone.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


Lowest number since 11 days before Christmas. These are much more normal looking case totals for all the boroughs than over past month.

Everyone did reasonably well today with some good falls and plenty of under 100 Pop Scores too. But half the boroughs fell week to week by only single figures and Bolton was up by them. So we are at a kind of plateau which is why falls all round are slowing. WE have lost the Omicron spike effect.

Zoe has been tracking the progress of GM boroughs pretty well lately. And saw the recently best in GM Stockport slowing a lot to a stall anticipating the end of this spike and inevitable they would show this first as it fell from a high point first. But most others are starting to track the same way just a few days behind.

A lot of the boroughs had today their lowest numbers of 2022.


TOTAL CASES 2498 - Down by 537 from 3035 yesterday


North West 7019 - Down by 1002 from 8021 yesterday

GM 35.6% of NW lowest split of the region recently which is good as it was creeping upwar

GM is down from 2744 last week by 246


NW is down from 7326 by 307.

GM has well above average of that fall which is always good week to week.




MANCHESTER 437 - DOWN 151 on day & DOWN 140 on week - Pop Score 79* (POP 27,692)* Joint Lowest Pop Score in GM today

STOCKPORT 281 - DOWN 48 on day & DOWN 17 on week. Pop Score 96. Lost 8 back to Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic and over 500 behnd now so not catching Bolton soon bar something unexpected 27 K club beckons tomorrow (POP 26,945)

WIGAN 262 - DOWN 41 on day & DOWN 1 on week Pop Score 79*. Just enough to enter the 28K club (POP 28,001)* Joint Lowest Pop Score in GM today

BOLTON 255 - DOWN 38 on day & UP 5 on week. Pop Score 88 (POP 26,430) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - now 515 ahead.

TAMESIDE 235 - DOWN 45 on day & DOWN 41 on week. Into the 28 K club. Pop Score 104* (POP 28,111) * Highest Pop Score in GM today and only one not under 100

TRAFFORD 226 - DOWN 63 on day & DOWN 2 on week. Pop Score of 95. (POP 27,784)

SALFORD 219 - DOWN 62 on day & DOWN 28 on week - Pop Score 83 - into the 29K club - first in GM (POP 29,180) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.

ROCHDALE 212 - DOWN 15 on day & DOWN 7 on week. Pop Score 94 - just avoiding the 28K club for another day (POP 27,995)

OLDHAM 194 - DOWN 33 on day & DOWN 6 on week. Pop Score 82 - cuts the gap to Stockport by 14 to just 242 POP 27,187)

BURY 177 - DOWN 41 on day & DOWN 9 on week. Pop Score 93 . (POP 27,551)
 
GM POP SCORES TODAY

These numbers match what Zoe is showing the boroughs are doing day to day very well

Just Tameside really struggling over 1000 still - for a small borough its Zoe score is VERY high. Though Bury who is just behind them is even higher on Zoe. And Zoe has the top two Oldham and Stockport spot on too.

But Tameside apart the other 9 are squashed much closer than they were a week or so ago. Again much as Zoe has been showing developing day by day.

The tweaks they made have made Zoe now a very good guide to how things are going.


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // UP/DOWN IN DAY // SCORE LAST WEEK // SCORE 4 WEEKS AGO


OLDHAM 788 / DOWN 2 / 1294 / 1046

STOCKPORT 789 / DOWN 8 / 1161 / 1536

MANCHESTER 816 / DOWN 24 / 1274 / 1609

WIGAN 818 / DOWN 1 / 1293 / 1242

SALFORD 834 / DOWN 11 / 1359 / 1617

ROCHDALE 848 / DOWN 3 / 1389 / 1065

BOLTON 871 / UP 2 / 1751 / 1492 / 1019

TRAFFORD 889 / DOWN 1 / 1227 / 1572

BURY 900 / DOWN 4 / 1209 / 1019

TAMESIDE 1020 / DOWN 18 / 1381 / 1448
 
WALES DATA

This is two days - SAT & SUN - as usual on Mondays

11 deaths - was 18 last week

4327 cases - was 3975 last week

19.8% positivity - was 17.4% last week

762 patients (Friday) - was 850 last week

27 ventilated (Friday) - was 26 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

Headline:- Some clear hints deaths are now falling as expected after cases did last week and we knew deaths then would some days on.

Appears cases have topped out on JAN 11 - but at present deaths at 5 days do so on JAN 17 that might yet slip a day forward when we get the weekend lag catch up numbers tomorrow.

JAN 11 with add ons still has the most in total in this wave (172) but may be surpassed by JAN 17 (highest at 5 days on 160).

JAN 18 & 19 at this stage look to be clearly down on last week as are the early numbers for JAN 20 & 21. But weekend numbers are not fully persuasive so tomorrow may give a better picture.


SATURDAY:-

171 with 34 North West - was 160 with 35 NW last week & 160 with 32 NW the week before


SUNDAY:-

15 with 2 North West - was 42 with 9 NW last week & 24 with 11 NW the week before


MONDAY:-

19 with 10 North West - was 31 with 8 NW last week & 15 with 8 NW the week before


Weekend total 205 with 46 North West V 233 with 52 North West last week & 199 with 51 North West the week before
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER WEEKEND - DETAILS

By Trust:-

SAT (171):- East 11, London 31, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 33, North West 34, South East 21, South West 8

Most by Trust :- 10 in Barts London

NW Trusts:- 7 in Blackpool, 6 in Morecambe, 4 in North Lancashire, 3 in Wirral, 2 in Bolton, Liverpool, Manchester & St Helens AND 1 each in Chester, East Cheshire, East Lancashire. Pennine Acute, Stockport & Wigan

By Age: - 0 - 19 (2), 20 - 39 (4), 40 - 59 (13), 60 - 79 (64), 80 PLUS (88)


SUN (15):- East 9, North West 2, South West 4

Most by Trust:- 3 each in East & West Suffolk

NW Trusts:- 1 each in Liverpool & Wirral

By age:- 60 - 79 (5), 80 PLUS (10)


TODAY (19):- East 9, North West 10

Most by Trust:- In the North West

NW Trusts:- 5 in North Lancashire,3 in Liverpool & 2 in Manchester

By age:- 40 - 59 (2), 60 - 79 (3), 80 PLUS (14)
 
ZOE APP PREDICTED DAILY AND ONGOING CASES UK - LAST TWO DAYS

Unfortunately the numbers are continuing to go up again.

Predicted cases are UP today for fourth straight day.


ON 150,660 UP FROM 147,265 - rising by 3395 after previous day rises of 2,864 & 1979.

The rise seems to be slowly increasing. Last Monday the number was still falling on 152,456



Ongoing cases are at 2,241,815 - down 30,299 from the previous days 2,272,114 - this daily fall has dropped over the four days from over 50K fall in the day. Clearly heading for a plateau again at this rate.


Proven by the week to week fall today beinfg 296,674 when yesterday it was 341, 609.


In a few days the curve on the graph will start going up again if this track continues.


These numbers are now clearly starting to trend upward again.
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL CASES


Most regions are still going up. North West one of the few falling but the rise has bee decreasing.

It looks rather likely NW will follow this track back upward too in coming days.




Here are the main UK regions and their track

1: NORTH EAST stays top but is now falling - FROM 2705 / 3448 TO 2641 / 3377

2: NORTHERN IRELAND - has risen up the list more than anyone in past few days from near best into second worst BUT is now falling very slowly FROM 2239 / 3758 TO 2224 / 3753

3: LONDON - has been rising steadily for days now and is up even more than it was yesterday FROM 2501 / 2816 TO 2622 / 2946

4: YORKSHIRE is fourth and also still rising - FROM 2338 / 2781 TO 2415 / 2867

5: WEST MIDLANDS in fifth overtaking NW after another increases bigger than yesterday FROM 2207 / 2642 TO 2268 /2710

6 Meaning NORTH WEST stays sixth place but almost fell to seventh today :

FROM 2101 / 2475 TO 2066 / 2441 - a FALL only half of yesterday

South East just missed catching them after a big rise to 2066 / 2290


Wales stays best in UK despite being all but FLAT FROM 1378 / 1796 TO 1376 / 1796

Scotland stays just behind - BUT also falls FROM 1423 / 1784 TO 1406 / 1769


The best England region remains the South West but they are UP again today - like all the southern regions are - FROM 1637 / 1912 TO 1699 / 1978

The two Eastern regions are UP too by quite a bit - East on 1920 / 2218 & East Midlands on 1945 / 2360


SO THE AGAIN THE NORTH WEST - TODAY JOINED BY THE NORTH EAST - ARE THE ONLY TWO ENGLAND REGIONS STILL NOT RISING
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA


The area around Preston and the Ribble Valley is falling though Chorley on 69,899 is still higher than most of Greater Manchester.

The lake District has though taken the UK stop spot in past few days - but Allerdale is sligtly down today too on 87,337.

West Lancashire - between Merseyside & Wigan falls again like most of the NW has been doing by 2K to 41,508.

On Merseyside numbers are falling well too - Liverpool down around 2K to 45,861. St Helens by just 500 to 35,243 - BUT Wirral is up 2K on 39,994.

Cheshire West & Chester is also up 1K on 37,070 BUT Cheshire East is inching down by 1K - on 47,680


AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - HERE ARE THE TEN BOROUGHS IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST


1 OLDHAM 14,604 - down 2K - and still miles clear of the rest now - indeed increasing the gap

2 STOCKPORT 38,157 - has slowed right down in past few days standing still and now for first time back up by 600.

3 BOLTON 39,907 - down 2K and falling well - likely to go above Stockport tomorrow on this track and is already increasing its lead on the lowest Pop Score in GM because of it. Indeed Oldham is catching Stockport too - and - just to back up Zoe's success at predicting these things - these three are easily the lowest numbers in GM on the real Pop Scores too.

4 ROCHDALE 42,889 - down 5k and now dropping fast too

5 SALFORD - 43,312- down 2 K - still falling well after being 75 K a week ago

6 MANCHESTER 49,128 - down 700 and also slowing now

7 TRAFFORD 51,105 - been very flat around here but has started to rise in past two days - up 2K again today

8 TAMESIDE 62,921 - down 5K again - 10 K in 48 hours

9 BURY 73,141 - down 3 K and a bit behind the rest now tracking the right way

10 WIGAN 79,319 - still going UP by 1K today to a new highest ever in Greater Manchester
 
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