COVID Data Thread

NORTHERN IRELAND PAST 7 DAY CASES BY AGE RANGE

As you can see the trend continues - school age cases rising and rising, over 60s pretty flat (they were about 1% lower a week or two ago before care home rises took hold) but are still lower than they were before Omicron arrived.

Why we have more of a case-demic right now but much less of a pandemic and falling hospital data

19 and under now = 43.8% of all cases. over 80s = 1.1% and all over 60s = 6.2%

Pre Christmas the former was in the mid to late 20s% and the over 60s just under 10%.


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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

1 death - was 4 last week

3932 cases - was 3295 last week

29,950 weekly cases - was 23,630 last week

215 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 220 LAST WEEK

371 patients - was 394 last week

20 Ventilated - was 22 last week
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

Cases - um - as you know - pick a number between 4637 and 6934 - the two given - likely nearer the lower one) - was 4469 last week

21.2% positivity - was 21.3% last week

1435 patients - was 1441 yesterday & 1557 last week

38 ventilated icu - was 41 yesterday & 43 last week

The most important numbers as you see still going the right way
 
56 all settings deaths - was 85 last week

44 in England - was 63 last week

88,447 cases - up 10,130 on yesterday from 78,317

Up 4018 on last week's 84,429

England only 77,232

Up 8319 on yesterday from 68,913

Up 2983 on last week from 74,249
 
Not an amazing day for Greater Manchester. Up by a larger chunk of the NW rise than should expect (though that is only 328 out of the NWs rise of 538 - so fairly minimal damage).

Zoe has been proven right again about Stockport having become the first borough to stall and rise slightly after good falls and had one of the worst days today - actually up week to week when most are down today. A legacy of the first to fall and therefore this might happen to the rest a bit later.

Hopefully this is a blip or just higher school age cases in the borough.

Most other boroughs are at least down on the week.

Week to week GM is down 439 from a NW fall of 1876 - which shows you GM underperformed today as that by rights should have been more like a drop of 800.
 
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Scotland today by the way had 2956 cases added by Gov UK. Nothing like either of the numbers they posted earlier that were both 2 or 3 times higher - 4637 & 6934.

No idea why they cannot just at least post the number that they know Gov UK will record even if it is as well as all the others they want to tell us. Not doing so just creates confusion.But looks like that has become too simple a thing to do unlike it has been for the past 2 years.
 
England Hospital Key Numbers

Admissions (Saturday) 1277 V 1604 last week & 1862 two weeks ago

LOWEST ADMISSIONS ON ANY DAY SINCE CHRISTMAS EVE


NW 187 V 291 - First sub 200 admissions here since Christmas Day

All other regions down signifcantly too



Rest of data today:-


Patients 14,563 - UP from 14,334 yesterday V 16,621 last week

Last week the Monday rise was 249 - today it is 229

North West is the ONLY region to actually fall today just as on Zoe it was the only one to fall too

RISES

East UP by 21 to 1296, London UP by 49 to 2792, Midlands by 45 to 2753, NE & Yorkshire by 75 to 2640 South East by 15 to 1503 & South West by 21 to 898


AND the only ones to fall (allbeit just!) North West by 3 to 2681



Ventilators down yet again also to 521 - down from 524 yesterday V 623 last week

NW 64 - down 2 V 65 last week

Every region bar London (up 2 on 185 - down in week from 219) is now below 100.

South West is on just 16 - after being 23 last week, 44 the week before and 64 on 3 Jan
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Southern regions and the northern and midlands in a very clear split now just as the Zoe data has been showing. South going back up. North still going down.

Meanwhile North West is in SIXTH - its lowest of the new year. Matching progress on Zoe again.



SOUTH EAST on 14,720 - UP from 13,026 V 12,071 last week & 12,692 wks ago

LONDON on 9918 - UP from 9326 V 9775 last week & 15,235 2 wks ago

EAST on 9708 - UP from 8389 V 8336 last week & 10,118 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 8617 - UP from 7857 V 9137 last week & 12,842 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 8069 - UP from 7123 V 6502 last week & 7939 2 wks ago




NORTH WEST on 7557 - UP from 7019 V 9433 last week & 21,484 2 wks ago




YORKSHIRE on 6983 - UP from 6681 V 7752 last week & 17,202 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 6477 - UP from 5633 V 6066 last week & 9322 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 3726 - UP from 3545 V 4397 last week & 8200 2 wks ago



North West is today on 1,981,878 - so on current numbers is now about 3 days away from becoming the third to top the two million cases milestone. London and South East are already over that.
 
1643111810518.pngLatest Zoe graph very clearly showing the curve is flattening and that means ongoing cases are rising again.We have to watch how far that translates from under 20s which appear to be driving these rises as that will determine what happens to the hospital data. But it seems likely the falls we have seen in the past week may now start to stall. Hope not.
 
ZOE APP PREDICTED DAILY AND ONGOING CASES UK - LAST TWO DAYS

Unfortunately the numbers are continuing to go up again.

Predicted cases are UP today for fifth straight day.


ON 154,838 FROM 150,660 - rising by 4178 after rises of 3395, 2,864 & 1979 in previous days.

The rise is now very clearly increasing - and this is why the curve in the graph above is flattening.

Last Tuesday the number was still falling on 149,178. It got down to 142,328 and has risen every day since.



Ongoing cases are at 2,216,769 - down 22,137 - the fall was 30,299 yesterday and has dropped over the five days from over 50K. Clearly heading for a plateau (and then presumably an overall rise) at this rate.

But as it is under 19 - mostly school age - testing driving these rises it depends hugely how well the vaccines stop that spread into family and older more vulnerable community and hopefully prevent it reaching hospital numbers which are the thing that really matters right now - not cases .
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL CASES


The order of all 12 UK regions has not altered since yesterday.

What HAS changed is that now EVERY region (bar one) is now rising again. And that one is NOT the North West - which has started tracking upward again for the first tine in 17 days. Exactly as I said the other day it would as it was always going to follow the trend that the other regions had - fall, stall then rise.

If it starts to go up to the degree that the Southern regions have - such as London - cases will escalate enough that hospital numbers will start to rise again as they have down south.

NW today is only up a small amount - from 2066/2441 TO 2084 / 2462 - but not likely it will stay at this modest level of increase.

North West has been the only one or of the few falling for several da ys but the fall has been decreasing. So this was always coming.

London started off slowly but today went up quite a bit from 2622 / 2946 TO 2725 / 3055. This is the biggest regional rise today.

It looks rather likely NW will follow this track back more steepy upward too in coming days. Hopefully I am wrong.

The ONE region to fall today is Yorkshire (still in 4th place ahead of NW in sixth) - from 2415 / 2867 TO 2407 / 2859 TODAY - which as you can see is only just about a fall.
 
WALES DATA

2 deaths - was 1 last week

1977 cases - was 1857 last week

23.8% positivity - was 22.4% last week

769 patients (latest - last Friday) - was 811 last week

26 ventilated (latest - last Friday) - was 25 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

The big weekend catch up was a little higher than I hoped and is up week to week but enough about the detail to still suggest the peak in deaths has occurred - 16 JAN being currently my best estimate of when.Hopeful too this will be the peak number of the deaths this winter as it was always going to be on a Tuesday - BUT that assumes the cases rising as they are again never reaches the levels that would threaten this number - which I think is a reasonable expectation as school returns are driving them but not by any means a certainty

308 with 52 North West

Last week was 299 with 48 NW & week before 294 with 46 NW.

By Region:

East 17, London 46, Midlands 78, NE & Yorkshire 77, North West 52, South East 32, South West 6

(That 6 for SW might look unfeasibly low but the other data supports it as SW region has just 16 on ventilators as of today V 64 on then three weeks ago on 03 JAN)

Most by Trust:

16 each in Birmingham & South Tyneside

NW Trusts:

10 in East Lancashire, 6 each in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), Stockport & Wigan, 4 each in Salford & Southport, 3 each in Bolton, Manchester & Mid Cheshire, 2 each in East Cheshire & Morecambe AND 1 each in Blackpool, Chester & Warrington
 
SCOTLAND DATA

23 deaths - was 31 last week

CASES - ???? but somewhere between 2276 & 5626 - nearer the lower end maybe but not either.

Was 3507 last week

21.6% positivity - was 20.9% last week so maybe in the 3000s given that - but it is a lottery here now until the Gov UK number is posted later.


1392 patients - was 1435 yesterday & 1546 last week

34 ventilated icu - was 38 yesterday & 42 last week

CASES APART THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS STILL CLEARLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
 
NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE 30,808

Over 5000 cases today alone and weekly totals shooting up daily (it was 24,348 last Tuesday) will be the media headline but THE NUMBERS BELOW are what matters.

44.3% now 19 & Under - going up daily. School testing = case rises = not a rising pandemic of the ill nor necessarily much if any rises in hospital and in deaths.

Two thirds are under 40.

Over 60s now just over 5.9% - this has been FALLING daily again as cases have been rising fast.

Over 80s just less than 1 in a hundred.

Those are the stats the media should be reporting.

They are why rising case numbers look scary but are nothing like as important as they once were.

Yet the demographics of those cases and the consequent hospital numbers (see below) absolutely are.


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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

5 deaths - was 6 last week

5023 cases - was 4081 last week

30,808 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 29,950 YESTERDAY & 24,348 LAST WEEK

213 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - DOWN FROM 215 YESTERDAY & LAST WEEK

393 patients - was 371 yesterday & 412 last week

18 Ventilated - was 20 yesterday & 22 last week

VENTILATOR NUMBERS IN NORTHERN IRELAND WERE LAST THIS LOW IN JULY.

THIS IS THE SAME PATTERN IN DATA WE ARE SEEING IN THE NORTH WEST AND SOUTH WEST IN ENGLAND TOO.
 
UK numbers today

439 all settings deaths - up 1 from 438 last week.

Again suggesting as I said earlier in the England hospital numbers this may well be the peak as
Tuesday is always the peak day for deaths as we know.

409 England - was 400 last week.



94,326 cases - up from 88,447 yesterday but down by 106 in the week from 94,432.

England only 84,302 - down 685 on last week.
 
England hospital numbers

Admissions (Sunday - admissions always 48 hrs behind the other data):

1535 V 1768 last week & 1975 two weeks ago.

All regions well down - NW wk to wk 295 TO 218.

Patients TODAY down 475 to 14,088 - down 2130 from last Tuesday's 16,218

North West the biggest fall - down 206 to 2475 today

Ventilators also down yet again by 20 to just 501, Down from 614 last Tuesday. And from 797 three weeks ago today.

North West fell by 1 to 63.

Full summary here later.
 
Another bad day for Stockport - standing out now as a potential problem in GM again. Though not yet at any real concern level. Just after being the best for much of recent two weeks it has in past few days slipped backwards a bit as Zoe has also been finding.

Every other GM borough fell well today V last week. But Stockport is the odd one out and well up after being up a bit yesterday too - and whilst probably these are school related numbers only so not in of themselves a problem it would seem it is not doing as well as others are in this regard.

Hopefully it is just a blip in one area and as one of the largest boroughs it will always score highish. Remains to be seen if they are an outlier or these kind of rises here are the prelude to other boroughs going back up for the same reasons in coming days. Best scenario would be a short lived localised outbreak in Stockport schools with the rest continuing to fall.
 
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Healdplace said:
England hospital numbers

Admissions (Sunday - admissions always 48 hrs behind the other data):

1535 V 1768 last week & 1975 two weeks ago.

All regions well down - NW wk to wk 295 TO 218.

Patients TODAY down 475 to 14,088 - down 2130 from last Tuesday's 16,218

North West the biggest fall - down 206 to 2475 today

Ventilators also down yet again by 20 to just 501, Down from 614 last Tuesday. And from 797 three weeks ago today.

North West fell by 1 to 63.

Full summary here later.
Click to expand...
Good news.
 
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