COVID Data Thread

Greater Manchester underperformed a little again versus the North West today,

Day to day North West UP 147 to 2963

Of these Greater Manchester was up 97 of that 147 to 1133.

A bit over expectation but small numbers involved so not really an issue.

Week to week though North West is DOWN from 3926 - fall of 963

Greater Manchester IS down week to week too - but only by 203 from 1336.

The expected fall on current percentages GM v NW is about 360.

But not a disaster at 203 by any means as GMs population of the NW is higher than its current split of the numbers so ths is likely just an evening out of the numbers across the the region which is good.
 
Greater Manchester Highlights


Not as spectacular as yesterday but some good numbers nonethless.

Manchester well up but on 199 just managed to stay sub 200 and that is at least down 29 on the week.

Wigan was down 64 week to week too but next top scorer on 146.

Stockport did not go sub 100 again but was the biggest week to week faller again - down 70 on 118.

Trafford though did stay below 100 on 92. Along with four other boroughs - the lowest of which was Salford who outperformed everyone on just 53 - the lowest score in GM for two months.

Bury, Oldham and Rochdale also scored sub 100.

Aside from Stockport & Wigan with big drops the others all fell modestly week to week.

Again the one that did not was Bolton - up week to week again. It has been rising on Zoe and its real numbers are proving them right. Though at just 127 it is only up 23 and down on yesterday so not as yet in of itself a concern just relatively when the rest are going in the right direction week to week with much better numbers than they had.
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 121 cases today (DOWN from 137 yesterday) - Total cases 40,922 - Pop Score 14,660 (Up 44 today) & Weekly Pop Score 287 (down 11)

DARTFORD 57 cases today (UP from 51 yesterday) - Total cases 17,900 - Pop Score 15,695 (Up 46 today) & Weekly Pop Score 433 (down 10)
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 4568 - UP 378 V 5522

SOUTH WEST 3196 - UP 317 V 4096

NORTH WEST 2963 - UP 147 V 3926

EAST 2883 - UP 347 V 3986

LONDON 2735 - DOWN 1 V 3327

WEST MIDLANDS 2460 - UP 72 V 3381

YORKSHIRE 2434 - UP 46 V 3085

EAST MIDLANDS 2249 - UP 143 V 2707

NORTH EAST 1099 - DOWN 123 V 1653
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 625, Bury 677, Salford 734, Rochdale 801,Tameside 823,Trafford 844. Bolton 867, Stockport 1036, Wigan 1127, Manchester 1527

These numbers looking a lot more like they should in normal times and as Stockport falls close to getting below 1000 for first time in weeks Bolton is climbing and threatening to go the other way.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 263 (LEVEL) // 80 c v 81 c // POP SCORE 34 - UP TO 17,965 - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 274 (DOWN 6) // 199 c v 228 c // POP SCORE 35 - UP TO 17,598

SALFORD 279 (DOWN 6) // 53 c v 69 c // POP SCORE 20* - UP TO 17,699 *Lowest Pop Score today & in GM in months

BOLTON 301 (UP 8) // 127 c v 104 c // POP SCORE 48* - UP TO 16,900 * So often the lowest today the highest daily Pop Score rise but 48 is the lowest high in some time in GM,

WIGAN 341 (DOWN 19) // 146 c v 208 c // POP SCORE 44 - UP TO 17,358

STOCKPORT 352 (DOWN 24) // 118 c v 188 c // POP SCORE 40 - UP TO 16,249 - Lowest in GM over all of the pandemic

BURY 355 (DOWN 7) // 78 c v 92 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 17,097

TRAFFORD 356 (DOWN 15) // 92 c v 130 c // POP SCORE 39 - UP TO 16,599

ROCHDALE 358 (DOWN 12) // 95 c v 120 c // POP SCORE 42 - UP TO 17,743

TAMESIDE 363 (DOWN 6) // 105 c v 116 c // POP SCORE 46 - UP TO 17,267








Only Bolton had a bad day again and saw its Weekly Pop Score rise.

Stockport had the best day with the largest week to week fall and moved up four places as a result!

As you can see just 11 now separate the top five GM boroughs when there was a gigantic gulf between Trafford and Stockport and the rest a couple of weeks ago. So literally any of them could be top tomorrow given that closeness of numbers. Jumps like Stockport's today will happen more often now the ten boroughs are squeezing back together.

Despite such a good day Stockport lost 1 pop score point back v Trafford across the pandemic meaning Stockport's lead is now 350.

Oldham is doing so well right now its imminent entry as the first GM borough into the 18K club keeps getting pushed back and on current numbers will now likely be tomorrow or maybe on Wednesday.

On this score today Rochdale in second place behind Oldham for the highest Pop score across the whole pandemic is catching its heighbour daily with higher Pop Scores. The gap dropped by 8 to 222 behind so not likely to catch Oldham anytime soon at least unless Rochdale stays unexpectedly high.

EXACTLY 100 now top to bottom in weekly POP scores - fallen every day for two weeks Looks much more like a normal GM Pop Score table than it did two or three weeks back when the top to bottom spread was over 500

The peaks and troughs have evened out as I said a few weeks ago was what we wanted to watch out for if GM was returning to normality.

We have got there and the only concern right now is Bolton which seems to be going up when the rest are falling, It is over 6 months since the mass vaccination push there given its local reluctance. It mght be time to do a booster push now too.
 
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WALES DATA

5 deaths - was 10 last week

1784 cases - was 2210 last week

13.3% positivity - was 16% last week

666 patients - was 697 last week

75 ventilated - was 73 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

This is always the highest number of the week with weekend registrar closures catch up. It is pretty flat in general. The big rises seem to have stopped:-

BUT THE NORTH WEST HAD A DREADFUL WEEKEND. ITS WORST IN SOME TIME WITH EASILY THE HIGHEST DEATHS - NEARLY ALL OVER THE PAST WEEKEND

188 WITH 51 FROM THE NORTH WEST

Last week was 217 with 28 North West (THIS includes about 25 or so held over from Monday where a data error occurred and no numbers were posted - so this week is pretty flat or slightly down week to week in reality wth the true Tuesday number last week of rund 190/195

AND as you see the NW is the main reason - by doubling week to week - that it did not actually FALL a lot more)

Week before 185 with 24 North West
 
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ENGLAND 188 HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL

By Region:

East 12, London 19, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 44, North West 51, South East 10, South West 19


By Trust:

NW easily had the most big scores though there were 8 in Birmingham and 7 in Durham too.

NW Trusts:- Note all the boroughs in the daily data that have had big cases lately are now seeing a week or two later the terrible legacy of those cases in the older age groups (where nearly all these deaths are).

7 in St Helens, 6 each in East Lancashire & Stockport. 5 each in Manchester & Wigan, 4 each in Blackpool & Salford. 3 each in Morecambe & Warrington, 2 each in Liverpool & MId Cheshire AND 1 each in East Cheshire, Pennine Acute, Southport and Wirral.

That is 12 deaths in Blackpool and 12 in Stockport over the last 72 hours - two boroughs that have been having about one or two a week normally up to ther recent very high case numbers - now happily down a bit. And ones the media hardly noticed as having trouble when the data showed it clearly for weeks.

THIS is the legacy of those missed outbreaks. St Helens also was similarly missed but a clear outbreak in the data (and sadly is still higher here) - they have had 9 in the same 72 hours.


By Age:

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (3), 40 - 59 (13), 60 - 79 (88) & 80 PLUS (83)

AS YOU CAN SEE THE NUMBERS ARE NOW VERY HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE OVER 60s AGAIN - AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THE WANING VACCINE EFFICACY FOR THOSE WHO HAD IT MONTHS AGO IS A KEY FACTOR

IF YOU HAVE A RELATIVE IN THAT AGE BRACKET WHO HAS NOT HAD THEIR BOOSTER PLEASE SHOW THEM THIS DATA AND TELL THEM IT IS VERY IMPORTANT. YOU REALLY COULD SAVE THEIR LIFE
 
SCOTLAND DATA

20 deaths - was 26 last week

2233 cases - was 2010 last week

12% positivity - was 13.5% last week

753 patients - down 50 on yesterday - was 932 last week - BIG FALL HERE

57 ventilated icu - up 3 on yesterday - was 63 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

7 deaths - was 2 last week

1228 cases - was 1114 last week

8184 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 8215 YESTERDAY & 8087 LAST WEEK

36 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 38 YESTERDAY & 47 LAST WEEK - VERY GOOD NEWS HERE

395 patients - UP 17 on yesterday - was 381 - Still not going in the right direction here

28 ventilated - was 31 yesterday & 29 last week
 
Total deaths today with out of hospital England to add is:- 220

Last week the number at this stage was:- 255 - which became 293 (highest since last March) when England out of hospital added 38 to the 217 in hospital - though that hospital number DID include around 20/25 held over from Monday when there was an IT failure and ni report.
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS


More falls today in all measures. Though slight slow down or flattening off perhaps.



Predicted cases now going down by less than a few days ago but still a substantial fall.

On 75,204 FROM 76,897 - DOWN 1693 after falls of 1573 and 2839 on days before that.

Down week to week from 88, 592- a fall of 13,388 over the 7 days after a fall of 13,293 the day before that.


Ongoing symptomatic cases also still falling but slowing a tiny bit.

On 1,154,159 FROM 1,166,560 yesterday (down 12,401 a slight drop in the decrease from 12,626 yesterday and 12,579 the day before)

Was 1,223,700 last week- a fall of 69,541 across the week (up from 57, 225 yesterday).





IN THE NORTH WEST:- Fell by a little more than yesterday - indeed NW as a region fell back into 7 th place as it fell well from 1071 / 1374 TO 1032 / 1328 - It may soon drop below 1000 on the first measure if this goes on.

No England region failed to go down today - and Wales fell too - most fell by less than NW today - though South East, South West and West Midlands fell a little more.

Scotland - not now best in UK - rose a little for the fourth day running to 771/ 1081 with London now firmly below it as BEST in UK taking over from Scotland with another small fall on 754 / 957

And Northern Ireland now THE most infected region on Zoe in the UK (taking over from the North East which fell a lot today) is UP again over 4 figures on both measures by the most today onto 1024 / 2363 FROM 971 / 2279


London and Scotland remain the only two nations out of the highest watch zone.



Within NW most places falling but still very slowly.

Wyre is still the highest but sub 40K now on 34K and Wirral is edging UP on mid 31K also high. Fylde has dropped quite a bit but on 16 K. As is St Helens falls a bit onto 22K.



In Greater Manchester pretty well everywhere is fairly flat edging up or down a tad. Oldham on just 4812 is down 3 - lowest change I have ever seen but typical of the lull which may be presaging rise of course.

Oldham still MILES ahead in best spot. More ahead than I recall any one borough being.

Stockport is now third BEST on Zoe in GM but just inched UP back into the 14Ks onto 14,102. However, neighbour Tameside just edged above in second falling more to 12,024

Most boroughs are bunched between 15 and 17K (Bolton, Manchester & Wigan all in the 17/18K range and with Rochdale and Salford only JUST now over Stockport by just a hundred or so after falling a bit today and may overtake tomorrow)

Trafford is still over 20K but fell a little to 21,206

Leaving Bury still making the biggest rise again today (over 4000) and well clear on 27, 377 - the highest in GM right now by some margin as you can see.
 
262 all settings deaths - down from 293 last week

England added 42 out of hospital (up from 38 last week) to 230 of those 262



Cases 33, 117 - up 795 on yesterday & down 748 on last week.

THE FLATTENED OFF THEME IN THE POSTS ABOVE GOES ON HERE AS IN THE THREE OTHER NATIONS


England only though is UP today by 2893 to 27, 892

Though that is down by 639 from 28,531 last week.


SO REALLY THE FLATTENED OFF THEME CONTINUES


There are hints today that the case fall has become a case stall and I would not bet against a case crawl back upward sadly.

Guess we will have to wait and see over next few days as the numbers do rise mid week and fall at weekends most weeks.
 
Greater Manchester performed much better versus the North West today,


Day to day North West UP 562 to 3525


Of these Greater Manchester was up just 88 of that 562 to 1221

A fair bit UNDER expectation but given the numbers involved modestly good news.



Week to week though North West is DOWN from 3626 - fall of just 101


Of these Greater Manchester IS down week to week too - but by 193 from 1414.

So GM falls by almost double the wentire regional fall

Small numbers so no big del eithr way but easly compensates for the poor day GM had yesyerday.
 
Greater Manchester Highlights


Not as spectacular as has been but still some good numbers nonethless.

Manchester top scores on just 178 whixch is at 60 from 238 the best fall on last week.

Wigan was only just behind on 171 but down 40 week to week.

A struggling Rochdale was third on 141 - UP by 47 week to week. Easily the worst rise today and also had the highest Pop Score today well above the rest.

Stockport was the second biggest week to week faller behind Manchester - down 50 on 130. That fall was enough to mean it even went sub 1000 on the weekly cases chart for the first time since September. And gained 6 more on Trafford - who were also down but by just 18 week to week.


Bury best scored on 66 and Bolton had a good week to week fall on 94

But Odham also sub 100 but UP 1 week to week on 85.

Tameside was also up slightly week to week. The rest down middling numbers. Though Saford down 38 the best of them.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (SUNDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

739 V 860 last week


SO ADMISSIONS STILL AT LOWEST IN MORE THAN A MONTH


London 90 v 103 (down 13), Midlands 136 v 146 (down 10), NE & Yorkshire 124 V 183 (down 59) & North West 102 v 129 (down 27)

South East down to 99 from 108 week to week



PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

7075 / 7053 Today.

Down by 22



Last Week the numbers were

7535 / 7510

Down by 25



A week to week FALL of 457 today. It was a week to week fall of 460 yesterday, 401 the day before and 281 the day before.


SO MAY HAVE FLATTENED OFF AND WE WILL NEED TO SEE WHERE THE REST OF THE WEEK GOES FROM HERE


Last Tuesday patients were UP week to week by 668



REGIONALLY London LEVEL at 1052, Midlands DOWN 21 to 1290 , NE & Yorks UP 37 to 1373 & NW DOWN 41 to 1074. So NW had the best day today.


Week to week London (down 42), Midlands (down 67), NE & Yorkshire (down 185), East (down 16), South East (up 14) , South West (down 86) and North West (down 77) over the last 7 days.

So not a bad week for NW.




VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY

869 / 864 Today Down 4


Last week the numbers were 859 / 859 LEVEL



So week to week today ventilators are UP by 5, The week to week rise last week was 56.



REGIONALLY London has 185 (up 2), Midlands 175 (down 3), NE & Yorkshire 138 (up 1)
& North West 108 (down 6)

NORTH WEST FELL WEEK TO WEEK BY 15 - MOST OF ANY REGION

South East had worst day today - up 8 today to 97 - which is up by a whopping 26 from last week.
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

PATIENTS:-

ENGLAND 7053 , N IRELAND 395, SCOTLAND 753, WALES 654 UK TOTAL 8855 (DOWN 124)

Only N Ireland did not fall today


VENTILATORS:-

ENGLAND 865, N IRELAND 28, SCOTLAND 57, WALES 72 UK TOTAL 1022 ( DOWN 2)

Only Scotand did not fall today


Both numbers fall today and under 9000 now in UK hospitals
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 122 cases today (UP from 121 yesterday) - Total cases 41,044 - Pop Score 14,704 (Up 44 today) & Weekly Pop Score 281 (down 6)

DARTFORD 55 cases today (DOWN from 57 yesterday) - Total cases 17,955 - Pop Score 15,743 (Up 48 today) & Weekly Pop Score 431 (down 2)
 
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