COVID Data Thread

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6861, N IRELAND 387, SCOTLAND 768, WALES 641 UK TOTAL 8657 (DOWN 135)

All four nations were down today


VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 842, N IRELAND 30, SCOTLAND 60, WALES 73 UK TOTAL 1005 ( DOWN 3)

England and Scotland fell today - N Ireland rose


Both numbers fall today and well under 9000 now in UK hospitals and ventilators very close to falling back below 1000
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 6492 - UP 1019 V 5151 - Massive rise here and up 1341 wk to wk - also 2000 above NW and the rest now

SOUTH WEST 4430 - UP 213 V 3497 - Also now above NW

NORTH WEST 4381 - UP 84 V 3771

EAST 4161 - UP 869 V 3448

LONDON 4136 - UP 665 V 3115 - Another one up over 1000 week to week

THESE FOUR REGIONS SEPARATED BY UNDER 300 BUT THE SOUTHERN ONES EASILY UP THE MOST


YORKSHIRE 3687 - UP 872 V 3280

WEST MIDLANDS 3181 - DOWN 52 V 3001

EAST MIDLANDS 3091 - UP 114 V 2492

NORTH EAST 1558 - DOWN 28 V 1531



As you can see Midlands and the North West had the best of the big case rises today with modest increases only and even small falls in NE and WM when the southern regions were the main cause of the big cases jump today
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 189 cases today (UP from 136 yesterday) - Total cases 41,369 - Pop Score 14,820 (Up 68 today) & Weekly Pop Score 289 (UP 5)

DARTFORD 68 cases today (UP from 58 yesterday) - Total cases 18,081 - Pop Score 15,853 (Up 59 today) & Weekly Pop Score 388 (down 19)
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 603, Bury 651, Salford 754, Rochdale 780, Tameside 885, Bolton 889, Trafford 890, Stockport 969, Wigan 1164, Manchester 1523

Most places up a bit today

Oldham still best of the pack and Manchester even further ahead though both they and Wigan had today;s biggest rises. Stockport was up but closed the gap on Trafford, Tameside and Bolton just behind as they were all up by more.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 254 (UP 8) ) V 273 // 102 c v 84 c // POP SCORE 43* - UP TO 18,079 - * Lowest Pop Score today. Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 274 (UP 13) V 297 // 252 c v 178 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 17,729

SALFORD 287 (UP 15) V 322// 146 c v 107 c // POP SCORE 56 - UP TO 17,847

BOLTON 309 (UP 25) V 308* // 187 c v 116 c // POP SCORE 65 - UP TO 17,048 - * WEEKLY POP SCORE NOW UP WEEK TO WEEK AND ENTERS THE 17K CLUB - PRETTY BAD DAY HERE

STOCKPORT 330 (UP 10) V 431 // 165 c v 138 c // POP SCORE 57 - UP TO 16,397 - Lowest in GM over all of the pandemic - Biggest weekly Pop Score fall

BURY 341 (DOWN 2) V 430 // 102 c v 105 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 17,244

ROCHDALE 349 (DOWN 6) V 417 // 126 c v 139 c // POP SCORE 56- UP TO 17,910

WIGAN 352 (UP 20) V 397// 213 c v 149 c // POP SCORE 65 - UP TO 17,529

TRAFFORD 375 (UP 24) V 443 // 160 c v 104 c // POP SCORE 68* - UP TO 16,790 - * Highest Pop Score today

TAMESIDE 390 (UP 12) V 412 // 144 c v 116 c // POP SCORE 63 - UP TO 17,451









Trafford and Bolton both had bad days today though Tameside was bad enough to stay top.

Stockport had one of the least bad rises and only lost a bit and Bolton who is not doing well could even catch it soon. Wich would have been unimaginable a week or two ago.

Trafford lost another 11 Pop Score points to Stockport giving it a now what seems an unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic - a whopping 393

Bolton became the seventh GM borough into the 17K club today with Trafford on current numbers around 4 days away from becoming the eighth. Stockport may be a week or more after that- by which point Rochdale ad Salford will almot certainly have joined Oldham in the 18K club,

But Trafford has slipped backwards a bit. Stockport may yet follow as it started to do today and Zoe has been showing signs. We will see.
.
Though Oldham is losing its unwanted lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic by way of very low numbers as neighbour Rochdale goes in the opposite direction toward the top of the tree and caght up another 13 today - though still 169 to go to catch Oldham and so this is not an imminent event. Maybe a coupke f weeks we will see if nothing changes before then. As it might.
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

FROM YESTERDAY - TODAYS WILL COME LATER - THESE WERE DELAYED


More good falls today in all measures. The graph is still falling pretty steeply much as it did in January when the wave ended. That peaked at 1.058 million and we are just a day or two away from going below this number.



Predicted cases now:-

On 69,299 DOWN from 72, 547 - A fall of 3248 after falls of 2657,1693, 1573 and 2839 on days before that.

Down week to week from 86,401 - a fall of 17,202 over the 7 days after falls of 16,045 & 13,698 the days before that.


Ongoing symptomatic cases also still falling.

On 1,105,850 FROM 1,122,951- a fall of 17,101 day to da yafter a fall of 17,803 the day before. So looking a little flat.

Was 1,213,227 last week- a fall of 107,377 after falls of 97, 218 & 82, 991 in previous days week to week. Again hints of the fall slowing





IN THE NORTH WEST:- Cases fell the most in some time yesterday and NW as a region stays in 7 th place out of the 12 UK regions as it fell from 1003 / 1294 TO 944 / 1226

Finally dropping below 1000 on the first measure for first time in weeks.


Every England region was down today -some by less than NW but few by more - and Wales and Scoland fell too.

Only Northern Ireland went up.

Scotland Fell FROM 731/1031 TO 677 / 963 - going below 1000 on both measures again after briefly rising above.

But Northern Ireland now THE most infected region on Zoe in the whole UK went back above on both FROM 994/2325 TO 1009 / 2303


London and Scotland were today joined out of the highest watch zone by West MIdlands - who have been falling a lot lately and dropped again today to 832 / 1133



Within NW most places falling now.

Wyre is no longer the highest and has dropped steeply again to 22K and Wirral is still inching up in the mid to high 31Ks.

Fylde has dropped like a stone over the past week from 38K to just 9 K. Now yunder almost everywhere in GM.

St Helens drops too into 20K. Warrington though is edging up daily and now over St Helens on 24,182.

Much the same in Cheshire - Cheshire East has dropped day by day over the past week from over 29K to 23,195 today. Still above the also falling Cheshire West which has only slowly reduced from 23K to 20,495 today.



In Greater Manchester pretty well all are fairly flat but edging daily up or down.

Oldham up a tad on just 5021 has been around that number for a week now. Oldham still MILES ahead in best spot.

Tameside has moved into second - though up a little on 11, 430 & Salford next still falling on 12,474

Stockport is now only fourth BEST on Zoe in GM but fell by 238 onto 14,073 and has been flat around 14K for days now.

Most other boroughs are bunched between 15 and 20 (Bolton down just over 16K, Manchester up to mid 18K, Rochdale still rising in mid 15K. Trafford falls a bit to mid 18K and Wigan going the other way overtook Trafford into second highest after 6 straight days of rises and nowon 20,844..

Leaving Bury still making the biggest rise again today (another 3000) and well clear of the rest by over 13,000 - Now on 34 493 - the highest in GM for some time by a huge margin as you can see.

And also now well clear as the highest in the NW region.
 
WALES DATA

4 deaths - was 13 last week - good fall here

2784 cases - was 1986 last week - but big rise here

10.8% positivity - was 8.9% last week

686 patients - was 686 last week

73 ventilated - was 73 last week - so hospital data very flat
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA - THEY HAVE FIXED THE GLITCH AND HAPPILY REPORT BOTH YESTERDAY & TODAY SEPARATELY

THOUGH MY GUESSTIMATE ON YESTERDAY WAS ALMOST EXACTLY RIGHT
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA THURSDAY

119 with 36 North West (another very high death level in the region sadly).

Was 107 with 12 NW week before & 89 with 11 NW week before that.

By Region:-

East 11, London 14, Midlands 20, NE & Yorkshire 16. North West 36, South East 8, South West 14

As you see the NW number again stands out a mile as unexpectredly high. Twice now in the past week. And triple the past 2 weeks.

By Trust:- The NW only for obvious reasons

Liverpool 11 - by far the most, 4 each in Blackpool, North Lancashire and Manchester, 3 in East Lancashire, 2 each in St Helens, Warrington & Wigan AND 1 each in Mid Cheshire. Pennine Acute, Salford & Wirral

By Age:

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (11), 60 - 79 (59), 80 PLUS (47)


AGAIN NOTICE THAT THE 60 - 79 AGE GROUP EASILY THE MOST - THIS IS NOW HAPPENING DAY TO DAY - ANYONE KNOW WHY? IT IS A VERY NOTICEABLE SWITCH OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS

MY GUESS IS THE VULNERABLE OVER 80s HAVE BEEN BY FAR THE MOST IN 18 MONTHS AND MOST MAY WELL HAVE HAD IT BY NOW OR SUCCUMBED. AND THEY HAD THE BOOSTERS FIRST QUITE RIGHTLY SO THIS IS QUELLING ANY WANING IMPACT WHEREAS THE 60 - 79 WERE ONLY A LITTLE LESS VULNERABLE AND ARE EITHER STILL IN THE QUEUE, JUST HAD THE BOOSTER OR THE MOST RELUCTANT OF ALLTO THINK THEY NEED IT. EITHER WAY THEY ARE CLEARLY NOW THE MOST THREATENED GROUP AND I DO NOT SEE THE MEDIA NOTICING THIS AND WARNING THAT AGE GROUP TO SPEED UP BOOSTER TAKE UP IN THAT RANGE
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA TODAY


90 with 16 North West (better today). AND A BIG DROP WEEK TO WEEK TOO

Was 162 with 25 NW last week

AND 133 with 21 NW week before that.

(TOTAL FOR THE TWO DAYS ARE 209 V 269 LAST WEEK & 222 WEEK BEFORE - WHICH IS GOOD NEWS - NORTH WEST 52 V 37 & 32 - LESS SO LOCALLY)

By Region:-

East 10, London 8, Midlands 21, NE & Yorkshire 13. North West 16, South East 14, South West 8



By NW Trust:-

4 in Blackpool, 2 each in Tameside & Warrington AND 1 each in Bolton, East Lancashire , Morecambe. Salford, St Helens, Stockport, Wigan & Wirral

By Age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (10), 60 - 79 (46), 80 PLUS (33)

AGAIN NOTE OVER HALF ARE 60 - 79
 
We now have the latest 7 day total and as expected it went up. But not by a huge amount and evidence so far is we might be falling in deaths again now. Though it is early days and the case rises of the past few days have yet to work through. So we will see.

Latest Week at 5 days OCT 31 - NOV 6 V The week before below it

(31 OCT - 06 NOV) 122 - 96 - 101 - 86 - 89 - 77 - 98

(24 OCT - 30 OCT) 87 - 91 - 86 - 122 - 95 - 80 - 87


TOTAL THIS WEEK 669 V 648 - SO A SMALL JUMP UP COMPARED WITH THE PEVIOUS WEEKS UP FROM 447 TO 538 AND THEN 648 -SO A RISE OF JUST 21 WAS THE BEST IN 3 WEEKS.

SO FAR DAY 1 OF THE NEW WEEK AT 5 DAYS IS 96 - UP ON 87 TWO WEEKS AGO BUT WELL DOWN ON THE 122 LAST WEEK

DAY TWO IS AT 95 THOUGH WITH A DAY TO GO SO LOOKS CERTAIN TO TOP LAST WEEKS 96 AND ALREADY HAS TOPPED THE 91 OF TWO WEEKS AGO.

HOWEVER THE BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE THREE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE AT PRESENT ALL BELOW THE PREVIOUS WEEK AT THE SAME STAGE (66 V 98, 62 V 63 AND 11 V 12).

AT LEAST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SIGNS OF A BIG INCREASE BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE OVER THE NEXT SIX DAYS
 
SCOTLAND DATA

ANOTHER MIXED DAY CASES HIGH, DEATHS DOWN, HOSPITAL NUMBERS DOWN

17 Deaths - was 25 Last Week

3349 cases - was 2389 last week - sadly cases have escalted here too today likely the same reason (school return) meaning if true the recent falls were artificial and not real unfortunately. Though they do not seem to be shooting up above where they were pre half term.

9.8% positivity - was 8.3% last week - more tests finds more cases as this is not up anywhere near the 45% of the cases so not a true rise in that sense

759 patients - down 9 on yesterday - was 841 last week

55 ventilated - down 5 on yesterday - was 59 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Bit better here

2 deaths - was 4 last week

1087 cases - wa 1164 last week

8923 weekly cases - was 9030 yesterday & 7993 last week

38 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - SAME AS YESTERDAY - UP FROM 36 LAST WEEK

397 patients - up 10 on yesterday - was 380 last week

27 ventilated - down 3 on yesterday - was 32 last week
 
145 all settings deaths - down from 193 last week

England only 122 - down from 151 last week - 32 out of hospital in England today

40, 375 cases - down 2033 on yesterday - but UP 6346 on last week''s 34,029


England only cases 33, 155 - down 2317 on yesterday but UP 4665 on last week's 28, 490

Pillar 1 & 2 tests are DOWN today by 53K on yesterday at 960,271

BUT 67K higher than last Friday's 893K
 
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NORTH WEST & GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY



Good day for Greater Manchester and OK too for NW given the increases this week.

GM DOWN 325 to 1272

North West was DOWN by 673 to 3708.

So in truth that fall is pretty good and a bit above the expected split of the NW. Always good with a fall.

Week to week the North West is UP just 107 from 3601 - one of the smallest regional weekly rises given England was up by thousands today week to week so well below expectation in the NW.

So again a very good number for the region.

Greater Manchester is UP 61 of that 107 which is a bit over expectation but trivial numbers from maybe 40 expected. So not changing the view this was a good day compared to elsewhere.



Wigan is again the real concern and top scored on 214 - up 77 week to week. Almost on its own stopping GM having a truly excellent day. I fear Wigan is heading for the top of the Pop Score table taking its turn after Trafford and Stockport to complete the trio of the the traditionally three low scoring boroughs across the pandemic going into the highest.

Manchester on 190 was up 8 week to week and nobody else was close to these two high numbers.

Trafford on 124 wasin fact the next nearest - though again up a bit (16) week to week

Others up week to week were Bolton up 2, Oldham up 21 and Rochdale up 3 .

The rest all fell week to week Bury by 23 (sub 100 on 81 best score today), Salford by 8, Stockport still doing well down by 29 and taking its overall Lowest Pop Score lead across the pandemic to over 400 behind Trafford now.

But the best of all was Tameside who fell by 40.
 
Healdplace said:
145 all settings deaths - down from 193 last week

England only 122 - down from 151 last week - 32 out of hospital in England today

40, 375 cases - down 2033 on yesterday - but UP 6346 on last week''s 34,029


England only cases 33, 155 - down 2317 on yesterday but UP 4665 on last week's 28, 490

Pillar 1 & 2 tests are DOWN today by 53K on yesterday at 960,271

BUT 67K higher than last Friday's 893K
Click to expand...

I guess that's the half term effect well and truly over...

Anyone who thinks they can predict where this will go next is kidding only themselves.

I'm hoping the booster programme will make a further reduction in hospitalisations/deaths over and above whatever happens with cases.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I guess that's the half term effect well and truly over...

Anyone who thinks they can predict where this will go next is kidding only themselves.

I'm hoping the booster programme will make a further reduction in hospitalisations/deaths over and above whatever happens with cases.
Click to expand...
Yes, the hospital data is as ever crucial in coming weeks as the NHS faces its usual crunch over Christmas and this year we will depend heavily on the boosters to see us through so we do not face the problems of last December/January.

The England hospital patient data has fallen again today - though by a little less than last Friday - but the NW fall has slowed and ventilators are up in the region more than anywhere else. Atop the high deaths in NW yesterday.

It will be next week probably before we see any real sign of the change from the increased cases this week but for the first time in a while the admissions (for Wednesday) are UP week to week - 807 to 821 - though that is well down still from the 955 on the week before.

6777 in hospital in England today V 7075 on Monday and 7072 last Friday & 7113 two weeks ago today.

So still falling if rather slowly.
 
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Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

ANOTHER MIXED DAY CASES HIGH, DEATHS DOWN, HOSPITAL NUMBERS DOWN

17 Deaths - was 25 Last Week

3349 cases - was 2389 last week - sadly cases have escalted here too today likely the same reason (school return) meaning if true the recent falls were artificial and not real unfortunately. Though they do not seem to be shooting up above where they were pre half term.

9.8% positivity - was 8.3% last week - more tests finds more cases as this is not up anywhere near the 45% of the cases so not a true rise in that sense

759 patients - down 9 on yesterday - was 841 last week

55 ventilated - down 5 on yesterday - was 59 last week
Click to expand...
I wonder if the rise in cases is linked to COP 26?
 
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