COVID Data Thread

GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 603, Bury 621, Salford 754, Rochdale 830, Tameside 885, Trafford 895, Bolton 914, Stockport 945, Wigan 1247, Manchester 1539



Oldham still best of the pack and Manchester nearly 600 ahead of Stockport seemed unlikely a week ago but Wigan 300 ahead seemed even more unlikely. Stockport was up but by less than Bolton and Wigan so closed the gap on them regardless.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 253 (DOWN 10) ) V 267 // 96 c v 117 c // POP SCORE 40- UP TO 18,154 - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 276 (LEVEL) V 295 // 294 c v 286 c // POP SCORE 52 - UP TO 17,816

SALFORD 287 (UP 3) V 300 // 121 c v 113 c // POP SCORE 46 - UP TO 17,934

BOLTON 317 (UP 8) V 286 RISING // 110 c v 87 c // POP SCORE 38* - UP TO 17,127 - * Lowest in GM Today

STOCKPORT 321 (DOWN 2) V 405 // 178 c v 173 c // POP SCORE 60 - UP TO 16,498 - Lowest in GM over all of the pandemic

BURY 325 (DOWN 5) V 379 // 89 c v 96 c // POP SCORE 46 - UP TO 17,333

ROCHDALE 371 (UP 5) V 377 // 151 c v 138 c // POP SCORE 67- UP TO 18,031

WIGAN 377 (UP 2) V 366 RISING // 173 c v 167 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 17,646

TRAFFORD 377 (DOWN 4) V 395 // 130 c v 141 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 16,897

TAMESIDE 390 (UP 18) V 385 RISING // 156 c v 116 c // POP SCORE 69* - UP TO 17,568 - * Highest in GM Today






THREE BOROUGHS NOW RISING WEEK TO WEEK - BOLTON, WIGAN AND TAMESIDE & A FEW OTHERS CLOSE

Tameside had the worst day today with highest Pop Score, biggest weekly rise and moved back into top spot.

Stockport had a less good day but not a disaster and still fell slightlyand climbed a place with Bolton once best in GM now very close to being caught.

Trafford though gained another 5 Pop Score points back from Stockport reducing the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic -to 'just' 399.

Oldham had a much better day and is well clear at the top now. Indeed it gained a huge 27 points off Rochdale who are still struggling and today became the second GM member to crash into the 18 K club joining Oldham.

Oldham's lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic care of its very low numbers is dwindling as we watch whilst neighbour Rochdale goes in the opposite direction. The gap was 200 a few days ago and is now just 123.

Salford is one bad day or two ordinary days away from becoming the third to join the 18K club. Manchester will follow over the next 5 days or so.

Trafford is also likely to reach the 17 K club on Monday with Stockport on current numbers about a week behind as the sole occupant of the 16K club but soon there too.
 
WALES DATA

This is from Friday only - Sat & Sun will be together tomorrow as usual

6 deaths - was 9 last week

2659 cases - was 2583 last week

10.7% positivity - was 9.6% last week

621 patients (Friday) - was 640 last week

67 ventilated (Friday) - was 73 last week
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS


HEADLINE:

UNFORTUNATELY THE SLOW TO REVERSE HAS NOW FIRMLY STARTED ON ZOE AND NORTH WEST LASTED ONE DAY IN THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE BEFORE RISING TWO PLACES BACK OUT OF IT AFTER GOING UP FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO OR THREE WEEKS - LONDON THOUGH IS STILL FALLING AND BECAME THE FIRST BOROUGH ON ITS OWN INTO THE LOWEST WATCH ZONE

Predicted cases now:-

65,019 FROM 65,618 DOWN by just 599 after a fall yesterday of 828 - by far the smallest drops over the past 10 days - which previously were 2853, 3248, 2657 on days before that.

Down week to week from 78, 470 - a fall of 13,451 after one of 15, 691 yeterday and falls of 17,244 & 19, 838, in the days before that.

Certainly starting to look like a flattening off. The downward trajectory of the falls seems undeniable here.


Ongoing symptomatic cases still falling. But again slowing.


On 1,036,760 FROM 1,054,793 yesterday- a fall of 18, 033 after falls of 18, 659 and 18, 895 the days before. So looking a little flat. But the gap ionce more is narrowing not widening. This measure would lag the day to day one by a few days in a directional shift but is starting to show the same thing.

Was 1,173,544 last week- a fall of 136,784 after falls of 131,542 & 125,856 on the days before - so still going the right way here - though there is also a slowing down of the day to day increase in the gap.

Not looking as promising as it was mid last week on Zoe.
 
ZOE APP DATA TODAY:- REGIONS & NORTH WEST

GOOD NEWS HERE



IN THE NORTH WEST the news was not good today:- Cases were up after a long spell of falls AND the NW as a region ROSE out of the middle watch zone and UP into 5 th place out of the 12 UK regions.




North West UP - only a little - TO 889 / 1167 FROM 869/ 1142 NOT GOOD NEWS BUT NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN THE MODEST RISE OF THE REAL CASES YESTERDAY & ALTHOUGH A MODEST RISE IT IS IN FACT THE WORST IN THE UK TODAY AS SEVERAL REGIONS WERE DOWN AND THE OTHERS UP ONLY A TAD - WHY IT LOST TWO PLACES AND JUMPED A WATCH ZONE ON A RISE THAT WOULD NOT NORMALLY DO THAT MUCH DAMAGE


Several England regions were up today.

North East fell today - but on 1088/1622 not enough to not remain in TOP place in the 12 UK regions.

Wales is UP into second place despite going up a tiny number and less than the NW to 966 / 1355.

THE OTHER FIVE IN THE TOP WATCH ZONE BAND ARE EAST third (UP but less than NW), SOUTH WEST fourth (FLAT for second day running) & YORKSHIRE falling below NW in sixth (DOWN a small number but on 869/1189 - the combined rise of NW and fall of Yorkshire enough to let them swap places) and East Midlands in seventh - up second most to NW on 861/1175 and enough to take it up witj NW out of the middle watch zone.

The MIddle watch zone has just four in it now - with West Midlands close to moving up into the top zone again but were actually very slightly DOWN today on 831 / 1136.

South East is next and also edging UP slightly today on 889 / 1052 - also at risk from rising a tier

Northern Ireland PLUMMETED by far the most DOWN in places and numbers from 811/1995 TO 508/1514 - a pretty dubious huge drop that I think the limited numbers in N Ireland of Zoe app users mean it is prone to create. Especially as in real cases yesterday N Ireland was up a lot week to week on its highest number in a while on a Saturday.

This leaves Scotland as the lowest in the middle watch zone- but like most places today edging up on 711 / 1006 - not quite as big a jump as NW again.



BUT best of all London - moving DOWN on its own now in the lowest watch zone edging up on 644 / 830 with the best believable fall today.



WE SEEM TO BE AT A TURNING POINT AND SADLY NOT A GOOD ONE ON ZOE
 
ZOE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH WEST & GREATER MANCHESTER


Within NW most places falling now too. Some quite fast. Hence the NW numbers are not as bad as they were.

Wyre has dropped VERY fast indeed in just over a week from 40 K to 12 K & Fylde has dropped off the danger list altogether on a number that would have made it almost the best in GM - just over 5000.

Warrington has started edging down over past few days but still high just below 23 K and now well above a fast falling St Helens on just high 15 K.

Wirral is now the highest in the North West having risen for days bit by bit to on 33,561 and Bury has now fallen for a few days to go below Wirral.

Much the same in Cheshire - GOOD NEWS FOR ANDYHINCH

Cheshire East has dropped a lot again today onto 19,637 - below 20 K for the first time in several weeks. Still above the also fast falling Cheshire West which is now on 14,959.

But both in better shape versus Greater Manchester not well above as was.



In Greater Manchester despite the regional Zoe rise (seems to be further north in the region where that is happening as if there was a southern North West Zoe number including GM then today it would clearly be down not up).

Oldham edging up now a little more day to day but still small steps on just 5344 - easily in top spot.

BUT Salford is now dropping fast daily and moved into second and looks to be gunning for Oldham's top spot down 1500 on 7755.

Stockport's improved few days see another good fall in third after another daily drop onto 11.924 after being flat in the 14Ks for days this is the lowest Stockport has been for 48 days.

Tameside is going up daily but still fourth on 14,461. But the gap widening.

Unfortunately the numbers are escalating elsewhere hence the GM case rises lately.

Fifth is a happily now falling Trafford down on 16,625. With in sixth but rising a touch Rochdale on 18,074

Unfortunately that leaves FOUR boroughs now in the upper watch zone (over 20K).

Bolton in seventh has the biggest rise (nearly 3K) and its real cases have been rising too and on the verge of going ahead of Stockport in weekly Pop Score because of it which was unimaginable even 10 days ago. Now on 20,726.

Wigan in eighth is happily down a tad but its high case numbers challemging Manchester daily for the most in GM shows it is still in a spot of bother - DOWN just 43 to 21,439.

Manchester in second worst place is up too from 21,334 TO 22,752 going above Wigan today.

MEANING

Bury is still far away at the top today BUT fell for the second day running and by 3000 too DOWN on 31,993
- making it now not the highest numbers in the North West as Wirral is above it and climbing.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

More of the same

1 death - was 2 last week

3077 cases - was 2908 last week

10.8% positivity - was 11.1% last week

765 patients - down 15 on yesterday - was 793 last week

56 ventilated icu - down 3 on yesterday - was 57 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

And here

5 deaths - was 4 last week

1377 cases - wa 1035 last week

ALL WE GET HERE AT WEEKENDS
 
63 all settings deaths

Up 1 on 62 last week

51 in England v 47 last Sunday.

36, 517 cases - down 1834 on yesterday from 38, 351 AND UP by 6212 from 30, 305 last week

England only

29,404 - down 4089 from 33,493 yesterday and UP by 5625 on 23,779 last Sunday
 
NORTH WEST & GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY



ZOE has both the North West and Greater Manchester about right I think as they broadly match its numbers. As in down day to day but up week to week. Not going to call it a good day but it could have been worse.

And Zoe is right that some boroughs are now rising a lot and others that were recently are now doing better. So on balance the numbers from the boroughs that were doing well when Stockport and Trafford were not are greater as there are more of them than the compensation of the falls by those two previously high scoring boroughs.

Stockport undeniably had the best day - just as Zoe showed it falling well today. It had its lowest score in months (just 91 -) which is actually down 3 on last Sunday and 87 down on yesterday. It also had the lowest Pop Score in GM today. An event that used to be common for the borough but has been AWOL for a long time. And took another 12 on its lead over Trafford even though Trafford had a pretty good day too and was only up 7 week to week.

Tameside was the only other borough that FELL week to week - by just 1 (96 to 95).

Everyone else was up. Some by more than others.

Again as Zoe predicted Bolton's woes continue and were up 19 week to week. Manchester managed - just- to stay sub 200 but was up 70 week to week amd again Wigan was top scorer ahead of Manchester on 224 - which is up week to week by even more than the city - 74.

So the main damage was that 144 rise from these two high scoring boroughs out of a week to week rise for all of GM of 234.

That 234 is about par of the NW week to week rise of 540 from 2816 to 3356.

Day to day North West is down 379. GM falls by 230 of that to 1268.

This is above par and with a fall good news for GM. But at 37.8% the percentage of GM from NW cases is up on what it used to be but only by a small margin and is still actually doing better within the NW numbers than population levels would expect.

So as I say could have been a lot worse. NW and GM are certainly not the main problem areas right now.
 
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Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 166 cases today (DOWN from 193 yesterday) - Total cases 41,870 - Pop Score 15,000 (Up 60 today) & Weekly Pop Score 320 (UP 13)

DARTFORD 54 cases today (DOWN from 71 yesterday) - Total cases 18,282 - Pop Score 16,030 (Up 48 today) & Weekly Pop Score 379 (UP 2)

By coincdence both entered new clubs on same day - Medway into the 15 K club (no GM boroughs left in here) and Dartford into the 16 K club which only Stockport and Trafford are low enough to be in within GM. Though Trafford only until tomorrow or Tuesday and Stockport probably sometime within the week after.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week

SOUTH EAST 5570 - DOWN 274 V 4190 - Up 1382 wk to wk - still over 2200 above the NW still

LONDON 3652 - UP 436 V 2736 - even London now above the NW and up nearly 1000 week to week

SOUTH WEST 3623 - DOWN 412 V 2879 - UP 1054 also still above NW

EAST 3484 - DOWN 418 V 2536 - another region ahead of the NW and up nearly 1000 or so week to week

NORTH WEST 3356 - DOWN 379 V 2816 - Up by 540 wk to wk - the regions much more even today but NW had the biggest rise in the North and Midlands today as Zoe predicted.

YORKSHIRE 2715 - DOWN 290 V 2388 - UP 327 wk to wk

EAST MIDLANDS 2519 - DOWN 588 V 2106 - UP 413 Wk to wk

WEST MIDLANDS 2441- DOWN 951 V 2388 - UP 53 week to week

NORTH EAST 1564 - UP 87 V 1222 - UP 342 week to weel


AS YOU SEE THE NORTH WEST AND OTHER NON SOUTHERN REGIONS STILL HAD THE BETTER DAY BEHIND ALL OF THEM BUT THE GAP WAS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND THE RISE WEEK TO WEEK HIGHER
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 617, Bury 643, Salford 765, Rochdale 849, Tameside 884, Trafford 902, Bolton 933, Stockport 942, Wigan 1321, Manchester 1609



Oldham still best of the pack and Manchester now 667 ahead of Stockport which seemed very unlikely a week ago but Wigan also approaching 400 ahead seemed even more unlikely. Stockport was down and Bolton up so just 9 between these two now.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 260 (UP 7) ) V 263 // 86 c v 72 c // POP SCORE 37- UP TO 18,191 - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 289 (UP 13) V 280 RISING// 198 c v 128 c // POP SCORE 36 - UP TO 17,852

SALFORD 291 (UP 4) V 285 RISING// 95 c v 84 c // POP SCORE 36 - UP TO 17,970


STOCKPORT 320 (DOWN 1) V 376// 91 c v 94 c // POP SCORE 31* - UP TO 16,529 - * Lowest Pop Score Today and Lowest in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 324 (UP 7) V 293 RISING // 152 c v 133 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 17,180

BURY 338 (UP 13) V 362 // 115 c v 93 c // POP SCORE 61 - UP TO 17,394

ROCHDALE 379 (UP 8) V 370 RISING// 110 c v 91 c // POP SCORE 49 - UP TO 18,080

TRAFFORD 380 (UP 3) V 371 RISING // 102 c v 95 c // POP SCORE 43 - UP TO 16,940

TAMESIDE 389 (DOWN 1) V 369 RISING // 95 c v 96 c // POP SCORE 42 - UP TO 17,610

WIGAN 399 (UP 22) V 366 RISING // 224 c v 150 c // POP SCORE 67* - UP TO 17,713 - * Highest in GM Today




ONLY BURY, STOCKPORT AND OLDHAM (JUST!) STILL FALLING AND NOT NOW RISING WEEK TO WEEK - BIG SWITCH HERE IN PAST 48 HOURS

Bolton is higher than it has been in weeks and Stockport overtook it today - an improbable event for weeks now.

Trafford lost another 12 Pop Score points to Stockport taking the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic to 'just' 411.

Oldham had a better day and took 12 more points off Rochdale too who are still struggling. So Oldham's lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic care of its very low numbers is dwindling fast and now just 111.

Salford will almost certainly be the third to join the 18K club tomorrow. Manchester will follow by next weekend.

Trafford may not now reach the 17 K club tomorrw if it has another good day but will do by Tuesday anyway with Stockport on current numbers about a week to 10 days the sole occupant of the 16K club but there week after next regardless. Sooner if things go pear shaped again!
 
WALES DATA

This is for Saturday AND Sunday combined as usual.

13 deaths - was 14 last week

4520 cases - was 4303 last week

11.4% positivity - was 10.9% last week

621 patients (this was Friday latest data) - was 654 last Monday

67 ventilated (also Friday) - was 72 last Monday
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

2288 cases - was 2012 last week

12.3% positivity - was 11/0% last week

771 patients UP 6 on yesterday - was 803 last week - Sadly this will soon be rising wk to wk again

57 ventilated icu - up 1 on yesterday - was 54 lat week - this already is up wk to wk again

SEEMS HARD NOT TO SEE ENGLAND GOING THE SAME WAY IN HOSPITAL (WHERE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL LAST WEEK) AS SCOTLAND HAS OVER THE COMING WEEK. HOPEFULLY I AM WRONG
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

5 deaths - was 11 last week

1457 cases - was 1028 last week

WEEKLY CASES 10,490 - FIRST OVER 10 K IN A FEW WEEKS - WAS 8923 FRIDAY & 8215 LAST MONDAY

40 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 38 FRIDAY & 38 LAST MONDAY - SADLY EDGING UP AGAIN UNSURPRISINGLY

412 Patients - up 15 since Friday - was 378 last Monday

28 Ventilated - was 27 on Friday & 31 last Monday

ANOTHER NATION WITH HOSPITAL NUMBERS GOING THE WRONG WAY
 
HERE IS THE LATEST NORTHERN IRELAND AGE SPLIT OF THOSE WEEKLY CASES NOW UP 2000 IN THE PAST WEEK TO OVER 10 K - YOU CAN SEE 20% OF THEM ARE STILL CHILDREN AGED 10 - 14 - BY FAR THE BIGGEST GROUP AGAIN WITH OTHER SCHOOL AGES JUST BEHIND. THEIR PARENTS AGE GROUPS 30 - 50 COME NEXT MOST - AND WHILST THE OVER 60s ARE UP A LITTLE NOT BY MUCH - THOUGH NOTABLY MOSTLY THE OVER 80s (CARE HOMES AND WORST UNDERLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY A RISING FACTOR HERE) - THEY ARE STILL BEHIND ALL THE OTHER AGE GROUPS - EVEN THOSE AGED JUST 0 - 4 BEING HIGHER THAN ALL OVER 64 -WHICH IS A BIG TESTEMENT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE VACCINES AS OTHERWISE THAT WOULD BE EXTREMELY UNLIKELY


1636987041254.png
 
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Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

2288 cases - was 2012 last week

12.3% positivity - was 11/0% last week

771 patients UP 6 on yesterday - was 803 last week - Sadly this will soon be rising wk to wk again

57 ventilated icu - up 1 on yesterday - was 54 lat week - this already is up wk to wk again

SEEMS HARD NOT TO SEE ENGLAND GOING THE SAME WAY IN HOSPITAL (WHERE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL LAST WEEK) AS SCOTLAND HAS OVER THE COMING WEEK. HOPEFULLY I AM WRONG
Click to expand...
Can’t be right.
Scotland, with covid passports, mandatory masks on public transport, in bars, restaurants, supermarkets, taxis, gyms, churches, banks, in fact, any indoor space since August and yet positive tests and positivity are continually rising. It’s almost like the vaccine has a life of its own and peaks and troughs of its own accord, regardless of what interventions are put in place.
 
about one in fifty people wearing masks in shops i went into today, about my age and the oldies only,no wonder the hosps are filling up
 
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