COVID Data Thread

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

SATURDAY:

115 with 10 North West

Was 115 with 27 NW last week

And 108 with 18 North West two weeks go.


SUNDAY:

16 with 0 North West

Was 14 with 0 NW last week

And 33 with 3 North West b two weeks ago


TODAY:

19 with 6 North West

Was 24 with 8 NW last week

And 25 with 2 North West two weeks ago


These refect the falling death numbers over the past week feeding from the flling cases a week or two befiore (though these are now back up and we have to expect this fall will only be temporary sadly and resume after a week or so of rising patients - which I will not ne surprised to see today or over coming days).

TOTAL OVER THE THREE DAYS 150 V 153 LAST WEEK & 166 WEEK BEFORE

NW ONLY 16 V 35 LAST WEEK & 23 WEEK BEFORE
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Can’t be right.
Scotland, with covid passports, mandatory masks on public transport, in bars, restaurants, supermarkets, taxis, gyms, churches, banks, in fact, any indoor space since August and yet positive tests and positivity are continually rising. It’s almost like the vaccine has a life of its own and peaks and troughs of its own accord, regardless of what interventions are put in place.
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I imagine much the same is driving the cases in Scotland as elsewhere - school age children. Mostly unvaccinated in the largest group. Though they are about to address that.

The cases in the over 60s are still the lowest and only edging up a tiny bit and deaths and hospital data are up a little but nothing like they would be but for the success of the vaccines in those now mostly tripple jabbed ages.

I expect most recent cases are child to family transmissions as Delta is so infectious it will likely pass on to nearly all in unavoidable close contact with the child who brings it home from school. The reality is though that these cases are still mostly not leading into hospital patients or deaths. Some doctors are saying a lot of patients are still the unvaccinated. A smaller proportion than ever left so if true it says more than ever hw vital the vaccines are.

Though my big concern is Christmas as the generations will mix with these kids then and if this school driven wave does not wane over the next 4 weeks THAT could create problems within the at risk into the new year. There is no way they will stop Christmas mixing this year so how the school cases go in the next 4 weeks before Grandchild meets Grandparent is vital. Though regardless hopefully the vaccines will still mininise the hospital rise and greatly limit the deaths to flu like levels not last Winter where we were pushing 2000 a day at the peak in January. We are nowhere near there yet as you see from the death numbers and hospital numbers in here.
 
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kaz7 said:
about one in fifty people wearing masks in shops i went into today, about my age and the oldies only,no wonder the hosps are filling up
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There’s a mask mandate in Wales and Scotland, so what’s driving their cases? Most of Europe, where masks are compulsory, also seeing a spike in cases.
 
On 14 November 2020 there were 462 UK Covid Deaths. Today so far with just out of hospital England to come (likely single figures) there are 37 reported from that date a year on. Though Monday likely reduces that and 137 might be closer but for that.

On this day in 2020 there were over 16,000 in UK hospitals - double where we are now. And rising about 1500 a week. To get to nearly 40K by the mid January peak.

And 1365 on ventilators. Also rising about 70 a week to peak at just over 4000 in mid January. We have just under 1000 on these in the UK at the moment.

Both patients and ventilators are falling too - not rising. Though this is not unlikely to change in the coming days I doubt the rise will get anywhere near 2020 levels.
 
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hgblue said:
There’s a mask mandate in Wales and Scotland, so what’s driving their cases? Most of Europe, where masks are compulsory, also seeing a spike in cases.
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I cant answer that , do they have as high a vaccination rate as we do ? in my local area people are not social distancing either , i wear a mask and stay away from people when i go out despite being double jabbed and booster booked in , it is winter so be sensible
 
In the Netherlands, 19,274 cases today (record), 19.2% testing positive, 244 admitted to hospital, and 26 admitted straight to ICU. There are now 2,000 people in hospital.

Middle of November, and the country has already surpassed the modelers' predictions; they had anticipated a peak of 1,500 but in the middle of January! Might be better with Airfix...
 
Gabriel said:
In the Netherlands, 19,274 cases today (record), 19.2% testing positive, 244 admitted to hospital, and 26 admitted straight to ICU. There are now 2,000 people in hospital.

Middle of November, and the country has already surpassed the modelers' predictions; they had anticipated a peak of 1,500 but in the middle of January! Might be better with Airfix...
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At the moment, I think deaths are rather lower than ours per capita, cases higher? I think from the numbers you quote hospitalisation is a bit lower too.

So overall, they seem to be doing probably similar, or a bit better, but taking much stronger action to try to stop it worsening.

Here's cases and deaths since delta came to the UK.

20211115_161837.jpg
 
47 all settings deaths - was 57 last week

29 in England was 32 last week.

39,705 cases

Up 3188 from 36,517 yesterday AND up 7383 from 32,322 last Monday.

ENGLAND ONLY

31, 440 - up by 2036 from 29, 404 yesterday AND up by 6461 from 24,979 last Monday

903,764 Pillar 1 & 2 tests today V 652,264 yesterday & 850,823 last Monday
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
At the moment, I think deaths are rather lower than ours per capita, cases higher? I think from the numbers you quote hospitalisation is a bit lower too.

So overall, they seem to be doing probably similar, or a bit better, but taking much stronger action to try to stop it worsening.

Here's cases and deaths since delta came to the UK.

View attachment 29982
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Think the genie escaped a couple of weeks ago, so things will continue to look bad for another fortnight or until the latest restrictions have an effect.
 
Gabriel said:
Think the genie escaped a couple of weeks ago, so things will continue to look bad for another fortnight or until the latest restrictions have an effect.
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There seems to be a perception that there is a big wave in Europe that might come here.

Reality, though seems to be that we're still worse than almost all of Western Europe.

Poorly vaccinated Eastern Europe is another thing entirely - Romania and Bulgaria have fatality rates about 20x ours, which is really shocking.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
There seems to be a perception that there is a big wave in Europe that might come here.

Reality, though seems to be that we're still worse than almost all of Western Europe.

Poorly vaccinated Eastern Europe is another thing entirely - Romania and Bulgaria have fatality rates about 20x ours, which is really shocking.
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I just think the U.K. is further down the line already but that countries in Europe are quickly catching up. We've probably all been too slow in getting booster shots into arms and too quick to dispense with other measures.
I had a fascinating meeting last week with Chinese and European colleagues, and the Chinese were all convinced that facemasks, social distancing, and hand hygiene were as important, if not more so than the vaccine in terms of individual safety. All of the Europeans thought the vaccine was more important than anything else. Countries that have shunned both, such as those you mention, are in for a horrible winter, I fear.
 
Healdplace said:
I imagine much the same is driving the cases in Scotland as elsewhere - school age children. Mostly unvaccinated in the largest group. Though they are about to address that.

The cases in the over 60s are still the lowest and only edging up a tiny bit and deaths and hospital data are up a little but nothing like they would be but for the success of the vaccines in those now mostly tripple jabbed ages.

I expect most recent cases are child to family transmissions as Delta is so infectious it will likely pass on to nearly all in unavoidable close contact with the child who brings it home from school. The reality is though that these cases are still mostly not leading into hospital patients or deaths. Some doctors are saying a lot of patients are still the unvaccinated. A smaller proportion than ever left so if true it says more than ever hw vital the vaccines are.

Though my big concern is Christmas as the generations will mix with these kids then and if this school driven wave does not wane over the next 4 weeks THAT could create problems within the at risk into the new year. There is no way they will stop Christmas mixing this year so how the school cases go in the next 4 weeks before Grandchild meets Grandparent is vital. Though regardless hopefully the vaccines will still mininise the hospital rise and greatly limit the deaths to flu like levels not last Winter where we were pushing 2000 a day at the peak in January. We are nowhere near there yet as you see from the death numbers and hospital numbers in here.
Click to expand...
I think the message really needs to be how the vaccine will likely save you from very serious illness and possible death and I think it all gets rather muddy when we start talking about passports and saving others.
For example. A vaccinated 30 year old who then catches covid can transmit that to a vulnerable elderly person, with very high risk of a poor outcome, if that elderly patient is not vaccinated.

It’s a simple, clear message. Get vaccinted and you have a much greater chance of not going into hospital and dying than if you are not vaccinated. That'll do….
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

THE EXPECTED RISE HAS BEGUN BUT AS YET NOT BY MUCH



ADMISSIONS (THURSDAY TO SATURDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

791 THU / 729 FRI / 655 SAT v LAST WEEK (SAME DAYS) 717 / 686 / 688


ALL BUT SATURDAY UP WEEK TO WEEK - BUT TWO WEEKS AGO THESE SAME THREE DAYS WERE 858/ 840 / 741 AND THREE WEEKS AGO THEY WERE 799 / 760 / 756

SO ADMISSIONS ARE LOWER THAN MOST OF THEM STILL




Over the three days the regional admissions week to week were:-

London 287 v 252 (UP 35), Midlands 406 v 400 (UP 6), NE & Yorkshire 403 v 381 (UP 22) & North West 303 v 342 (DOWN 39)

North West and London clearly had the best three days v last week



PATIENTS FRI/ SAT / SUN / TODAY

6777 / 6639 / 6707 / 6864 Today


Risen by 87 since Friday



Last Week the numbers were

7072 / 6874 / 6910 / 7075 Today.

Risen by just 3 over the weekend


Weekend before it was


7113 / 7155 / 7311 / 7535 UP every day 422 in total versus just 87 today.

So it has edged up but not by a lot - where it goes from here really matters - as it FELL every weekday last week and I suspect that will not happen this week







Last Monday the week to week fall was 7535 to 7075 so a fall of 460 v 211 this week to week.

Over weekend:-

REGIONALLY London UP 38 to 1094, Midlands DOWN 12 to 1252, NE & Yorks UP 43 to 1338 & NW DOWN 10 to 1024. So NW had a good weekend - falling along with the Midlands.


Week to week London (UP 42), Midlands (DOWN 59), NE & Yorkshire (UP 2), East (DOWN 64), South East (UP 8) , South West (DOWN 49) and North West (DOWN 91) over the last 7 days.

SO THE NW ALSO HAD THE BIGGEST WEEK TO WEEK FALL TOO.




VENTILATORS OVER THE WEEKEND


838 / 830 / 841 / 821 - DOWN 17


Last weekend the numbers were:-

860 / 856 / 849 / 869 UP 9.


Weekend before the numbers were 809 / 812 / 815 / 859 UP 50


So easily the best weekend of last three



So week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 48,

The previous week to week was UP by 10.



REGIONALLY over the weekend London has 184 (UP 3), Midlands 157 (DOWN 21), NE & Yorkshire 125 (UP 2) & North West 118 (UP 7)

North West did NOT have a good weekend here sadly but these numbers fluctuate day to day much more than patients do.

NORTH WEST ROSE WEEK TO WEEK BY 4 FROM 114 to 118.
 
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Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 155 cases today (DOWN from 166 yesterday) - Total cases 42,025 - Pop Score 15,055 (Up 55 today) & Weekly Pop Score 339 (UP 19)

DARTFORD 58 cases today (UP from 54 yesterday) - Total cases 18,340 - Pop Score 16,081 (Up 51 today) & Weekly Pop Score 395 (UP 16)

Dartford now above all of Greater Manchester with its Pop Score and Medway most of it.
 
NORTH WEST & GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY





Stockport probably had the best day again today with its lowest total in months - just 80 - down 38 on the week.Three weeks ago it was three times that every day. And went over 300 at one point.

Though Oldham had an even lower score and the least cases in GM in weeks on 59 and an even lower Pop Score it is fairy flat at this low level now and with little room left to fall.

Zoe has got these two boroughs spot on in past days predicting where they would track.

These two boroughs have the highest and lowest Pop Scores in GM across the full pandemic are streets ahead of the rest at the moment after being once at opposite extremes .

Indeed only Salford (UP by 51), Rochdale (UP by 21), Trafford (UP by 20) and Tameside (UP by 10) were not down week to week. Most who fell were more modest than Stockport's 38: though Bolton (DOWN 25) was a good surprise. The others were Oldham (DOWN 21), and Bury, Manchester and Wigan all down wk to wk by just a single one!


In the region the North West was down by just 15 to 3341 - though on a day when England was well up any fall is good news for the region as only London and the North East were also not UP today.

GM is down by 160 on the day to 1108 - lowest GM number in about a month.

So small numbers but falling over 10 x what the entire region does is a pretty good day relatively.

Week to week North West is up 378 - no big jumps happening at all.

Indeed all the southern regions are still higher than the NW - East. South East. South West and London
With South East on 6266 nearly 3000 ahead of the NW!

London on the other hand is on 3343 - ahead by just 2!

However, clearly the region and Greater Manchester is not the reason cases are rising right now.

That might yet change but the NW numbers are better right now than almost everywhere.

And more importantly this is reflected in NW doing the best in many of the England hospital numbers posted just above. The two are obviously not unconnected.
 
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ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY


CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 6266 - UP 696 V 4568 - Up 1698 wk to wk - 2900 above the NW still

EAST 3888 - UP 404 V 2883 - another region ahead of the NW and up over 1000 week to week

SOUTH WEST 3690 - UP 67 V 3196 - also still above NW

LONDON 3343 - DOWN 309 V 2735 - even London now above the NW (JUST!) though down the most

NORTH WEST 3341 - DOWN 15 V 2963 - UP 378 wk to wk - the regions much more even today but NW doing better still than the southern regions - one of only three boroughs that fell amidst todays big rises.

WEST MIDLANDS 3270 - UP 829 V 2460 - UP 810 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 2971 - UP 452 V 2249 - UP 722 Wk to wk

YORKSHIRE 2773 - UP 58 V 2434 - UP 339 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1385 - DOWN 119 V 1099 - UP 286 week to week
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 596, Bury 642, Salford 816, Rochdale 870, Tameside 894, Stockport 904, Bolton 908, Trafford 922, Wigan 1320, Manchester 1608



Oldham still best of the pack and Manchester now 704 ahead of Stockport which seemed very unlikely a week ago but Wigan also over 400 ahead seemed even more unlikely. Stockport overtook both Bolton and Trafford and now back in the pack much nearer the lowest than the highest. Wigan and Manchester left over 1000 but both well over as yet. Their turn to start to drop next hopefully.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 250 (DOWN 10 ) V 263 // 59 c v 80 c // POP SCORE 24*- UP TO 18,215 - * Lowest Pop Score today - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 290 (UP 1) V 274 RISING 16 // 198 c v 199 c // POP SCORE 36 - UP TO 17,888

STOCKPORT 308 (DOWN 12) V 352// 80 c v 118 c // POP SCORE 28 - UP TO 16,557 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

SALFORD 311 (UP 20) V 279 RISING 32 // 104 c v 53 c // POP SCORE 40 - UP TO 18,010

BOLTON 315 (DOWN 9) V 301 RISING 14 // 102 c v 127 c // POP SCORE 35 - UP TO 17,215

BURY 337 (DOWN 1) V 355 // 77 c v 7 c8 // POP SCORE 40 - UP TO 17,434

TRAFFORD 388 (UP 8) V 356 RISING 32 // 112 c v 92 c // POP SCORE 47 - UP TO 16,987

ROCHDALE 389 (UP 10) V 358 RISING 31 // 116 c v 95 c // POP SCORE 52* - UP TO 18,132 * Highest in GM Today

TAMESIDE 394 (UP 5) V 363 RISING 31 // 115 c v 105 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 17,661

WIGAN 399 (LEVEL) V 341 RISING 58 // 145 c v 146 c // POP SCORE 44 - UP TO 17,757 -




ONLY BURY, STOCKPORT AND OLDHAM STILL FALLING AND NOT NOW RISING WEEK TO WEEK

Bolton is higher than it has been in weeks and Stockport overtook it into third best - an improbable event when it was top less than 2 weeks ago. Though Bolton had a better day itself today.

Trafford lost another 19 Pop Score points to Stockport taking the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic to 'just' 430.

Oldham had the best day again in the numbers and took a whopping 28 more points off Rochdale who are still struggling. So Oldham's lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic care of its very low numbers is dwindling fast and now just 83. At current rates Rochdale will take over by next week.

Salford became the third borough to join the 18K club today. Manchester will follow by weekend.

Trafford did well enough to stay out of the 17 K club until tomorrow.

A few of the high scoring boroughs flirting with going into the 400s.
 
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