COVID Data Thread

SCOTLAND DATA


16 deaths - was 27 last week

3196 cases - was 3002 last week

8.0% positivity - was 7.6% last week

578 patients - DOWN 4 on yesterday - was 680 last week

39 ventilated icu - was 41 yesterday & 48 last week -

The deaths and hospital data is still going the right way despite cases running high. What we want to see.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA



4 deaths - was 2 last week

1819 cases - was 2272 last week

12, 281 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 12,465 YESTERDAY & 12,122 LAST WEEK

35 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 32 YESTERDAY & 34 LAST WEEK

338 patients - was 329 yesterday & 324 last week

30 Ventilated - was 34 yesterday & 28 last week

CASES DOWN AND QUITE FLAT BUT THE HOSPITAL DATA HAS REALLY TAKEN A SMALL TURN FOR THE WORST IN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - COINCIDENT WITH A RISE IN CARE HOME OUTBREAKS WHICH MAY NOT BE UNCONNECTED
 
TODAYS NORTHERN IRELAND CASES BY AGE RANGE SHOWING AGAIN THE HUGE SUCCESS OF THE BOOSTERS LEADING TO JUST 94 ( well under 1%) IN THE MOST VULNERABLE CATEGORY AND 777 (6.3%) ALTOGETHER OVER 60

WITH 4943 (40.3%) AGED 19 AND UNDER AND 8313 (67.7%) UNDER 40

THIS IS WHY DEATHS ARE SO MUCH LOWER AND MODEST NUMBERS IN HOSPITAL FROM MORE CASES AND WHY GETTING THE VACCINE OUT TO YOUNGER PEOPLE SHOULD DO IN THOSE AGE GROUPS WHAT IT ALREADY CLEARLY HAS DONE TO THE OVER 60s

6.3% IS HALF WHAT THESE NUMBERS WERE A FEW WEEKS AGO AND ONLY THE BOOSTERS CAN EASILY EXPLAIN THAT HEADING INTO WINTER


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148 all settings deaths - up from 141 last week

England only 113 v 104 last week

50,867 cases

Down 475 on yesterday and down 3078 from 53,945 last Thursday

England only: -

43,550 - down 469 on yesterday & down 2330 from 45,880 last Thursday
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY



ADMISSIONS TUESDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

799 V 699 LAST WEEK & TWO WEEKS AGO THE NUMBER WAS 659

SO ADMISSIONS CLEARLY NOW GOING WELL UP DAY TO DAY ON BOTH PAST WEEKS




Regional admissions Today V Last Week were:-

London 148 V 105 (UP 43), Midlands 183 V 123 (UP 60), NE & Yorkshire 105 V 104 (UP 1 & North West 82 V 80 (UP 2)

As you can see NE & Yorkshire and North West doing reasonably well with London and the MIdlands (and the smaller southern regions are going up too) compared with these numbers but in patients are now rising and these admissions as always are two days old.


PATIENTS YESTERDAY / TODAY


6053 / 6130 Today - UP by 77 on day.


Last week's numbers were:


5829 / 5915 UP by 86 on day


Week before the numbers were:


6062 / 6068 - UP by 6


So the numbers have turned around but very small upward numbers still


Two weeks ago the weekly fall day to day was 6336 to 6068 - A FALL OF 268

Last week the same day to day fall is 6068 to 5915 - A FALL OF 153

Today there is a RISE from 5915 / 6130 - UP BY 215


THE DOWNWARD TRACK WAS SLOWING AND SADLY NOW IS CLEARLY GOING UPWARD.



REGIONALLY DAY TO DAY:-


London UP 27 to 1163, Midlands DOWN 10 to 1187, NE & Yorks DOWN 4 to 923 & NW UP 21 to 832

So only NE & Yorks & Midlands down today. The other three smaller regions were up on the day too. South East 11 to 877 - now ahead of the North West after being well below it for weeks.


Week to week London (UP 80), Midlands (UP 47), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 78), East (DOWN 12), South East (UP 76) , South West (UP 17) and North West (UP 31) over the last 7 days.

SO WEEK TO WEEK NE & YORKS THE ONLY FALLER - JUST AS ZOE ALSO HAS IT THE LOWEST RATING ENGLAND REGION NOW - TAKEN OVER FROM NORTH WEST IN LAST DAY OR TWO




VENTILATORS DAY TO DAY



The numbers were:

778 / 792 - UP 14


Last week the numbers were:-

773 / 774 - UP 1


Two weeks ago the numbers were:-

783 / 790 - UP 7





So week to week today ventilators are UP 18

The previous week to week was DOWN by 16



REGIONALLY London has 197 (UP 4), Midlands 149 (UP 3), NE & Yorkshire 111 (UP 6) & North West 102 (UP 4)

East DOWN 1 to 76. South East DOWN 3 to 94.South West UP 1 to 63



NORTH WEST IS UP WEEK TO WEEK BY 6 FROM 96 TO 102.

Others:- EAST 76 TO 76, LONDON 181 TO 197, MIDLANDS 152 TO 149, NE & YORKS 125 TO 111, SOUTH EAST 88 TO 94, SOUTH WEST 56 TO 63
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY



Both UP by modest numbers today - but more than yesterday


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6130 , N IRELAND 338 , SCOTLAND 578 , WALES 375 UK TOTAL 7421 (UP 72)

Wales & Scotland down - England & N Ireland up



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 792 , N IRELAND 30, SCOTLAND 39 , WALES 36 UK TOTAL897 (UP 9)


England and Wales up & N Ireland and Scotland down
 
ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES TODAY


REGION / CASES TODAY / UP/DOWN ON YESTERDAY V LAST WEEK



South East 8828 - down from 8979 V 10,458

London 7761 - up from 6988 V 6501

East 5314 - up from 5193 V 6131

South West 4738 - down from 5020 V 5069

NORTH WEST 4066 - down from 4919 V 4708 - Big week to week fall as Zoe predicted

East Midlands 3852 - up from 3529 V 3692

West Midlands 3439 - down from 4103 V 3791

Yorkshire 2813 - down from 2818 V 3027 - Yorkshire is right now the best by nearly all measures - including Zoe & hospital numbers falling too

North East 1496 - up from 1440 V 1038
 
Simple question, or is it?

What % of the UK population have now had covid since we first started testing for it?

I’m wondering how near/far away we are from the mythical “herd immunity”?

edit - just found the answer; seems to be about 11 million cases in total (likely more in reality, factoring in cases before we started testing and further asymptomatic cases).
These will be huge under estimates as they are test reliant as you noted.

The overall Pop Score across the pandemic is a good guide to the relative numbers in each borough as they relate total cases recorded there to the local popuation that gives a kind of league table over the past 21 months of comparative case numbers that remove the size of the location from the eqution as cities will always outscore rural villages even if the village has problems but the Pop score smooths out that effect.

So obviosly the lower the Pop Score both over the whole pandemc and on the day or week to week - all of which I post in here - tells you relatively how many cases a place has had over those periods telling you who has done well or badly and who is doing the same day to day or week to week. But it also tells you the percentage tested positive at glance.

Gov UK gives you Pop Scores for the regions as well that you can track.

For example London has a Pop Score of 15,027 and North West of 18,252 - the highest region. London has had more cases than North West but it is faring better with a bigger population evening that out.

All Pop Scores are in effect cases per 100,000 people across whatever period they are measuring.

So the current Pop Score as a fraction divided by 1000 tells you the % of the population that has tested positive.

So on the numbers above 15.027% of London and 18.252% of the NW have tested positive over the 21 months. Though some may have done so twice, of course.

You can find the up to date number for any town or region or nation and track them this way.

One reason Stockport is probably having high cases despite the best vaccination numbers in the region is that it has the lowest Pop Score in Greater Manchester across the pandemic and so by default has the most people not seemimgly having had Covid previously. That success cuts two ways when a new variant shows up, Hence its current Pop Score is one of the worst in GM as it has more targets.
 
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These will be huge under estimates as they are test reliant as you noted.

The overall Pop Score across the pademic is a good guide to the relative numbers in each borough as they relate total cases recorded there to the local popuation that gives a kind of league table over the past 21 months of comparative case numbers that remove the size of the location from the eqution as cities will always outscore rural villages even if the village has problems but the Pop score smooths out that effect.

So obviosly the lower the Pop Score both over the whole pandemc and on the day or week to week - all of which I post in here - tells you relatively how many cases a place has had over those periods telling you who has done well or badly and who is doing the same day to day or week to week. But it also tells you the percentage tested positive at glance.

Gov UK gives you Pop Scores for the regions as well that you can track.

For example London has a Pop Score of 15,027 and North West of 18,252 - the highest region. London has had more cases than North West but it is faring better with a bigger population evening that out.

All Pop Scores are in effect cases per 100,000 people across whatever period they are measuring.

So the current Pop Score as a fraction divided by 1000 tells you the % of the population that has tested positive.

So on the numbers above 15.027% of London and 18.252% of the NW have tested positive over the 21 months. Though some may have done so twice, of course.
Ooh, I do love a creeping reveal!

Thanks for that reply, most interesting. Yes, I kind of dismissed the twice cases as negligible in number, but they are still there.

There does seem to be an acceleration in cases amongst people I know personally over the last month, to the extent that I can easily envisage that by the end of the winter (ie March) a sizeable minority of my contacts will have had it.
 
NORTH WEST NUMBERS

4667 UP 406 on yesterday & UP 1098 from last week's 3569 - biggest NW weekly rise in a long time.

NW probably had the worst numbers today. As Zoe predicted earlier again.



GREATER MANCHESTER NUMBERS

1640 - DOWN 377 FROM 2017 when the NW is DOWN by 853 - so GM on the day is about is about 44% - slightlly above its usual split of NW. Good news for a fall.

AND

Week to week GM is DOWN 196 from 1836 - which is just over 30% of the 642 NW fall.

That is a bit below par (the GM split has been around 38/39% lately).

So not a bad day for GM but week to week still a little under the falls in the rest of the region.

Not evenly distributed though. Stockport was up week to week by 26,so another poor day here. Bolton up by 12 and Rochdale by 10.

Everyone else was down week to week.Tameside by a gigantic 107 and Wigan by 76. The others more modestly.

Despite Trafford being down 2 week to week it scored 201 - the same number as Stockport and had a bigger Pop Score - 85 - highest in GM today V Stockport's 68. Bolton on a farly high 52 for here gained another 16 on Stockport and is chasing for top spot in earnest.
 
Ooh, I do love a creeping reveal!

Thanks for that reply, most interesting. Yes, I kind of dismissed the twice cases as negligible in number, but they are still there.

There does seem to be an acceleration in cases amongst people I know personally over the last month, to the extent that I can easily envisage that by the end of the winter (ie March) a sizeable minority of my contacts will have had it.
With Omicron it seems reinfection is even easier so it makes these kind of numbers much less meaningful.The hope is that your own naural immunuty will kick in better second or third time around. Herd immunity is not really the aspiration that it was given how easily Covid mutates. Seems morr like a cold which you can keep catching. If it mutates into about as dangerpus we can all cheer.

But one of the more scientifc members on the other thread is likely far better qualified to answer that.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY TODAY



CASES / CHANGE ON DAY / CHANGE WEEK TO WEEK / POP SCORE RISE / POP SCORE





MANCHESTER 310 / DOWN 62 / DOWN 15 / POP 56 / 19,039 - Entered the 19K club today

TRAFFORD 201 / DOWN 94 / DOWN 2 / POP 85 * / 18,600 * Highest Pop Score today

STOCKPORT 201 / DOWN 49 / UP 26 / POP 68 / 17,955

SALFORD 179 / DOWN 39 / DOWN 16 / POP 68 / 19,476

BOLTON 149 / UP 33 / UP 12 POP 52 / 18,352

ROCHDALE 147 / DOWN 2 / UP 10 / POP 66 / 19,606

BURY 122 / UP 14 / DOWN 5 / POP 64 / 18,862

OLDHAM 122 / DOWN 15 / DOWN 23 / POP 51 / 19,287

WIGAN 118 / DOWN 112 / DOWN 76/ POP 36 * / 19,151 * Lowest Pop Score today

TAMESIDE 91 / DOWN 51 / DOWN 107 / POP 40 / 19,031 Entered the 19K club today




WEEKLY POP SCORE TABLE LOWEST (BEST) TO HIGHEST (WORST) / BRACKETS (UP/DOWN IN WEEK)


BOLTON 323 (UP 23)

OLDHAM 332 (UP 24)

MANCHESTER 374 (UP 51)

TAMESIDE 403 (UP 17)

WIGAN 423 (UP 16)

SALFORD 452 (UP 63)

ROCHDALE 462 (UP 85)

BURY 465 (UP 92)

STOCKPORT 472 (UP 76)

TRAFFORD 581 (UP 122)




The table is now starting to look ominously like it did a few weeks ago before Trafford and Stockport fell big after their huge climbs. Trafford is again well clear. But Stockport is cutting away again too.

But as you can see EVERY borough is for the first time in ages going upward today. Most by not tiny numbers week to week.

There are now 6 boroughs in the 19K club with Manchester and Tameside entering it together today. Bury should make it seven over the weekend.

Stockport will be the last to exit the 17K club tomorrow barring an unlikely very good day. And Bolton is doing much better than it daily so catching up fast and on trajectory to overtake them as the lowest scoring borough across the pandemic around Christmas. Though as that seems to bring an immediate boost in cases whenever the lead changes Bolton may prefer to stay second!
 
WALES DATA


9 deaths - was 8 last week

2462 cases - was 2356 last week

9.0% positivity - was 9.4% last week

375 patients - was 456 last week

36 ventilated - was 43 last week


Deaths and cases are pretty flat now but the hospital numbers still improving.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Numbers are much better today though the travails of the NW and notably Greater Manchester show up in the deaths today - North West the highest of all regions today when everywhere else is much improved:




81 with 18 North West

Was 103 with 12 NW last week & 103 with 9 NW week before

East 7, London 17, Midlands 15, NE & Yorkshire 9, North West 18, South East 9 & South West 6

7 in Barts London the most


NW Trusts:

5 in St Helens, 3 in Manchester, 2 each in Nth Lancashire, Pennine Acute (Oldham & Rochdale), Tameside & Wigan AND 1 each in Bolton & Stockport

By Age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (7), 60 - 79 (39) & 80 PLUS (34)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Numbers are much better today though the travails of the NW and notably Greater Manchester show up in the deaths today - North West the highest of all regions today when everywhere else is much improved:




81 with 18 North West

Was 103 with 12 NW last week & 103 with 9 NW week before

East 7, London 17, Midlands 15, NE & Yorkshire 9, North West 18, South East 9 & South West 6

7 in Barts London the most


NW Trusts:

5 in St Helens, 3 in Manchester, 2 each in Nth Lancashire, Pennine Acute (Oldham & Rochdale), Tameside & Wigan AND 1 each in Bolton & Stockport

By Age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (7), 60 - 79 (39) & 80 PLUS (34)
Boosters working
 
Zoe Update

Zoe also shows many regions improving whilst North West is starting to slip. And its numbers also show Greater Manchester is a key reason for NW rising. Up now into 9th place - highest for the region in a week or two.

Zoe today shows predicted cases DOWN for second day running on 81.708 - down 661 after being down 1289 yesterday.

The ongoing cases are also notably slowing their rise now too - on 1.116,573 today -up 4144 - this daily rise has been falling for a few days now from around 7000.

However, as several regions fall - Yorkshire and North East notably now well down and both well below the North West which has been rising all week - London and South East are now the bggest areas in England.

Within the North West many places are going down but Greater Manchester is not doing as well on Zoe as the wider region. Something that has become obvious in the real case data too over recent days.

Stockport has gone on Zoe from a week ago beng best by miles in GM to now one of the worst - rising the most today in one day - 1500 - to 13,259 - highest it has been in a month. It has risen daily for over a week and doubled in the last 5 days. Looks like Omicron has arrived there.

At the other extreme Bolton has fallen as fast from 18K to 6273 today and this reverse means in the real data (where it is showing up too) that Bolton is catching Stockport day by day and could by Christmas become the borough with the lowest Pop Score across the entire pandemic for the first time ever. This has always been a fight between Stockport and Trafford from day one.

It is rather intriguing though that the two lowest scoring GM boroughs have been the two highest in the past month or two - the reason I assume being they have the most uninfected people left give their lowest numbers over the past 21 months.

And now that mantle looks like being taken over by Bolton - the borough which in late Spring/early Summer had cases through the roof and on the national news in special measures as (along with the rest of East Lancashire) the breeding ground for the Delta variant.

Now we are watching Omicron colonise Greater Manchester and seeming to target the two areas with the lowest cases over time - and so the most potential to exploit. Trafford right now being the only borough doing worse than Stockport. Ye Bolton - the one mist impacted by Delta this Summer early - is doing better.

These cannot all be coincidences. And they should be alerting the government to where to look for Omicron.

Are they doing this?

I hope so.But I wish I could believe that they are THAT much on the ball.
 
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Boosters working
Yes they are

I posted here and on the main thread yesterday a picture of the Northern Ireland numbers reported yesterday - the chart of the split of the past weeks 12,000 cases by age.

It is very telling as to the way these numbers by age are changing almost daily and dramatcally and this can only be explained by the boosters working as they filter down from oldest age groups to less old on being given out.

0.6% over 80 versus 40% aged 19 and under. This is a gigantic disparity. And has changed significantly over the past few weeks as boosters were given out.

Those numbers are proving the success of the boosters day by day.

Quite surprised the media are not showing this as it would change minds on having the booster.
 
Yes they are

I posted here and on the main thread yesterday a picture of the Northern Ireland numbers reported yesterday - the chart of the split of the past weeks 12,000 cases by age.

It is very telling as to the way these numbers by age are changing almost daily and dramatcally and this can only be explained by the boosters working as they filter down from oldest age groups to less old on being given out.

0.6% over 80 versus 40% aged 19 and under. This is a gigantic disparity. And has changed significantly over the past few weeks as boosters were given out.

Those numbers are proving the success of the boosters day by day.

Quite surprised the media are not showing this as it would change minds on having the booster.
The media show good positive news NEVER
 
SCOTLAND DATA


19 deaths - was 16 last week

5018 cases - was 2432 last week NB THEY SAY THEY HAVE ASKED LABS TO SPEED UP RETURNS TO MONITOR OMICRON SPREAD SO THIS IS PART OF THE REASON FOR THE SUDDEN BIG RISE BUT NOT THE ONLY ONE

9.3% positivity - was 7.6% last week

573 patients - DOWN 5 on yesterday - was 652 last week

40 ventilated icu - was 39 yesterday & 46 last week -

The hospital data is still going the right way despite cases running high. What we want to see. And if it stays that way under the rise of Omicron it will be very good news.

Quote
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA



2 deaths - was 4 last week

1806 cases - was 1908 last week

12,153 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 12,281 YESTERDAY & 12,426 LAST WEEK

36 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 35 YESTERDAY & 36 LAST WEEK

317 patients - was 338 yesterday & 326 last week

301 Ventilated - was 30 yesterday & 28 last week

CASES DOWN AND QUITE FLAT BUT THE HOSPITAL DATA HAS REALLY TAKEN A GOOD TURN THOUGH VENTILATORS ARE RISING COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL UPTICK IN CARE HOME OUTBREAKS WHICH MAY NOT BE UNCONNECTED

BUT - SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR THE REAL ONGOING STORY
 

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