COVID Data Thread

Churchlawtonblue said:
Its shabby isnt it? Biggest pandemic in 100 years and they cant even release daily data.
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I agree but I was very happy to have a few days off without looking for it.

I think they sensed the break for the nation for a few days was likely good for all psychologically as a long winter still awaits.

Hence why they will want another break this weekend.

I am sure if the need was dire enough they would ensure data was made available And they may even have had it privately and just not published.

As the news just now claimed Scotland had its highest ever cases over this past weekend. Though Gov UK reports them as three nills.
 
South Africa reported a quick rise in cases but that was then followed by a realization that the majority were not necessarily deteriorating to the extent that they required ICU treatment and that, indeed, they were able to be discharged comparatively quickly. If England is not anticipating further restrictions, then presumably the government has already reached a similar conclusion.
 
Gabriel said:
South Africa reported a quick rise in cases but that was then followed by a realization that the majority were not necessarily deteriorating to the extent that they required ICU treatment and that, indeed, they were able to be discharged comparatively quickly. If England is not anticipating further restrictions, then presumably the government has already reached a similar conclusion.
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That may well be exactly what will happen.

But the numbers on ventilators have also risen over the Christmas weekend - by 34 to 776 and 25 of those were in London on a new recent high of 231 and alongside the big NW patient rise today there were 17 extra ventilator patients added too. Biggest daily rise here in ages after falling for weeks into the mid 70s - one of the lowest numbers in months.

So I am not yet willing to be certain that this South Africa impact will cross continents given the higer number of older vulnerable patients in the UK than over there.

Though hopefully it will.

Again we have to wait, see and hope not assume it will follow suit. Which is what we seem to be doing without panicking into instant changes that may not be needed. But not ruling them out if things swing that way.

As I keep saying the hospital data over the next week or so will be pretty crucial to where we are really headed rather than where we all want to be headed. Hence not ruling out action but waiting to see until the New Year by when we should know more clearly surely makes sense.
 
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Healdplace said:
That may well be exactly what will happen.

But the numbers on ventilators have also risen over the Christmas weekend - by 34 to 776 and 25 of those were in London on a new recent high of 231 and alongside the big NW patient rise today there were 17 extra ventilator patients added too. Biggest daily rise here in ages after falling for weeks into the mid 70s - one of the lowest numbers in months.

So I am not yet willing to be certain that this South Africa impact will cross continents given the higer number of older vulnerable patients in the UK than over there.

Though hopefully it will.

Again we have to wait, see and hope not assume it will follow suit. Which is what we seem to be doing without panicking into instant changes that may not be needed. But not ruling them out if things swing that way.

As I keep saying the hospital data over the next week or so will be pretty crucial to where we are really headed rather than where we all want to be headed. Hence not ruling out action but waiting to see until the New Year by when we should know more clearly surely makes sense.
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I don't see making instant changes as necessarily panicking. The different governments in the UK seem to have decided on the levels of risk they wish to run. Last week, the Cabinet received the data it needed and an advanced look at the ONS figures on the Wednesday (usually published on Fridays), so it will presumably receive similar again this Wednesday. If it has deemed no change necessary so far, then it would have to see a marked change in the next couple of days for it to change tack this week. Any change thereafter would be akin to shutting the stable door.
 
I think they are clearly letting the hospitality and other industries that needed Christmas/New Year to have that and I will not be surprised if they do act early next week. SAYING they waited for the numbers to frm up.

The fact they had to recall parliament to act and that they knew compliance over Christmas would be hampered after the row over last year and Partygate probably meant they wanted to get that out of the way in hope post Christmas any restrictions would be easier to get compliance from.

Nobody feels like doing much in January, Staying in a warm house for a week rather than commuting to work will be a lot easier to agree to than not having Christmas and New Year parties.

And where we are already in this a week is at this stage not likely to change the game much tbh.
 
Healdplace said:
I think they are clearly letting the hospitality and other industries that needed Christmas/New Year to have that and I will not be surprised if they do act early next week. SAYING they waited for the numbers to frm up.

The fact they had to recall parliament to act and that they knew compliance over Christmas would be hampered after the row over last year and Partygate probably meant they wanted to get that out of the way in hope post Christmas any restrictions would be easier to get compliance from.

Nobody feels like doing much in January, Staying in a warm house for a week rather than commuting to work will be a lot easier to agree to than not having Christmas and New Year parties.

And where we are already in this a week is at this stage not likely to change the game much tbh.
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Parliament is in recess until the 5th, so unless the Government receives definitive data to suggest it tighten restrictions immediately, I don’t see it being reconvened this week. It was on December 14th that Parliament agreed to the last restriction, so by the time it reconvenes it will be close to a month since then. Unless things start going horribly wrong this week, therefore, I just don’t see there being the political will amongst Conservatives to force through tighter restrictions. They’ll more likely see the country as having weathered the storm and allow the weather and darkness to keep people socially distanced.
 
Here are the three day highlights for the numbers. Not great news for North West, or Greater Manchester, nor if you live in Stockport - who became the second borough other than Manchester to top 1000 cases on Christmas Day. That said everyone was well down after that as presuambly fewer testing occurred Christmas. We do not know as these test numbers have not been reported since 23 December when there were 1.57 million that day:

CHRISTMAS DAY

113,628 cases ALL IN ENGLAND (So there were many more in the UK as yet unreported probably up to 125K or so)

BOXING DAY

108,893 - 103,558 in England and the other 5335 was in Wales. Where there were also 3 deaths.

TODAY

98,515 ALL IN ENGLAND (So again there were many more in the UK - Indeed Scotland are reported to have had record total over the weekend though it has not been announced and is not in any of the above numbers.

NB SCOTLAND DATA HAS JUST BEEN REPORTED BY THE BBC NOW BUT NOT ON GOV UK.

BBC SAY THEY HAD 11,030 CASES - THE HIGHEST EVER -

ON BOXING DAY TAKING THE UK NUMBER TO 119,923 WITH NORTHERN IRELAND STILL TO ADD.



ALSO NOW CONFIRMED SCOTLAND HAD 8252 CASES ON CHRISTMAS DAY TAKING THAT TOTAL THEN TO 121,880 WITH BOTH WALES & N IRELAND TO ADD



AND TODAY SCOTLAND ADDED 10,562 CASES TO THE UK TOTAL NOW OF 109,077 WITH WALES AND N IRELAND STILL TO ADD AGAIN

As you see the UK total was well over 100K on every day.
 
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NORTH WEST & GM TOTALS OVER CHRISTMAS


NORTH WEST

CHRISTMAS DAY 16,548 (up 19 on day V 8309 last week)

BOXING DAY 14, 272 (down 2,276 on day V 6833 last week)

TODAY 13, 973 (down 299 on day V 7728 last week)



GREATER MANCHESTER


CHRISTMAS DAY 7540 (down 628 on day V 4317 last week) 45.6% of NW total

BOXING DAY 5451 (down 2089 on day - nearly all the NW fall V 3142 last week) 38.2% of NW total

TODAY 5584 (up 133 on day - NW was down 298 on day so not so good in GM V 3539 last week) 39.9%of NW Total


Greater Manchester on the whole did well last two days.

Christmas Day was kicked into orbit by a huge number in Stockport that came out of nowhere. And set all kinds of records. But the two days after it were 400 lower on both days in Stockport.
 
SCOTLAND NUMBERS

I added them into the UK totals above as they are still not on Gov UK but the BBC says they have been given them and they are:



CHRISTMAS DAY 8252 cases - was 5917 last week

BOXING DAY 11,030 cases - highest ever in Scotland - was 5924 last week

TODAY 10,562 cases - was 6734 last week
 
GREATER MANCHESTER CASES



MANCHESTER

DEC 25 - 1597 - up 393 on week

DEC 26 - 1056 - up 331 on week

DEC 27 - 999 - up 118 on week



STOCKPORT

DEC 25 - 1048 - up 618 on week

DEC 26 - 639 - up 289 on week

DEC 27 - 666 - up 240 on week





TRAFFORD

DEC 25 - 840 - up 378 on week

DEC 26 - 427 - up 114 on week

DEC 27 - 538 - up 188 on week


SALFORD


DEC 25 - 749 - up 301 on week

DEC 26 - 576 - up 210 on week

DEC 27 - 539 - up 172 on week


WIGAN



DEC 25 - 748 - up 418 on week

DEC 26 - 784 - up 505 on week

DEC 27 - 811 - up 487 on week



TAMESIDE


DEC 25 - 686 - up 419 on week

DEC 26 - 451 - up 217 on week

DEC 27 - 418 - up 144 on week


OLDHAM


DEC 25 - 549 - up 222 on week

DEC 26 - 329 - up 122 on week

DEC 27 - 287 - up 95 on week


BOLTON



DEC 25 - 496 - up 192 on week

DEC 26 - 521 - up 288 on week

DEC 27 - 571 - up 278 on week



ROCHDALE


DEC 25 - 415 - up 168 on week

DEC 26 - 329 - up 137 on week

DEC 27 - 407 - up 197 on week



BURY



DEC 25 - 412 - up 114 on week

DEC 26 - 391 - up 148 on week

DEC 27 - 348 - up 126 on week
 
ANOTHER HISTORIC TABLE:- WEEKLY POP SCORES IN GREATER MANCHESTER

Hopefully this one will soon JUST be history.

Probably nobody wll be surprised to hear that.....

Every single GM borough has a four figure Pop Score. Until the past week only Manchester and Trafford had achieved that and briefly and not at the same time.

Every single borough is at its highest Pop Score acoss the pandemic



SALFORD 1697* - was 1022 last week & 420 last month *Highest ever Weekly Pop Score in GM

TRAFFORD 1645 - was 1147 last week & 444 last month

MANCHESTER 1617 - was 1029 last week & 336 last month

STOCKPORT 1611 - was 959 last week & 397 last month

TAMESIDE 1478 - was 708 last week & 396 last month

BURY 1409 - was 971 last week & 389 last month

WIGAN 1399 - was 618 last week & 400 last month

ROCHDALE 1171 - was 665 last week & 419 last month

OLDHAM 1101 - was 606 last week & 313 last month1

BOLTON 1099 - was 628 last week & 322 last month
 
For historic context:

At the start of the Delta wave which began in Bolton on 25 April these were the weekly Pop Scores:

Wigan 24, Tameside 28, Stockport 29, Bury 30, Rochdale 34, Trafford 34, Salford 35, Oldham 37, Bolton 47, Manchester 49

At the height of the Delta wave arriving in Bolton on 23 May they were:

Stockport 14, Tameside 18, Oldham 28, Salford 31, Rochdale 40, Wigan 40, Trafford 46, Bury 53, Manchester 59, Bolton 456

The wave then spread to the rest of the UK and everyone eventually rose like Bolton did.

But these GM numbers V todays are a very dramatic illustration of just HOW infective Omicron is versus Delta ans how it spreads much faster and much further.

Hopefully as South Africa seems to show it burns out just as rapidly.

And thank goodness it is seemimgly a lot less dangerous than Delta.

Other than the danger to the NHS ability to cope via sheer numbers and staff off sick self isolating. Which we should not under estimate and if restrictions do come in will be the reason why.
 
WALES DATA

This covers two days

3 deaths - no easy comparison with last week but there were 6 reported last Tuesday for a single day

12,378 cases - again no easy comparison as this is two days and last Tuesdays 2375 was just one (and last Monday was two) but you can still see it is WAY up.Probably at least doubled.

(That three day total last week was 9171)

Positivity 23.8% - it was 14.8% last week.

No Hospital Data for 6 days now frustratingly.
 
ZOE DATA UPDATE

HEADLINE:- NORTH WEST HAS SHOT UP FROM THE BEST ENGLAND REGION 10 DAYS AGO TO ONLY JUST BEHIND LONDON IN SECOND PLACE FOR UKs WORST AND INCREASING MORE THAN A SLOWING LONDON

NOT A SURPISE GIVEN THE RECENT GM NUMBERS SADLY


Predicted daily cases now 183,592 - up from 177,302 day before

Ongoing infections 1,898,593 - up from 1,808,011 day before.

Both of these are highest ever by far and two million ongoing cases (about one in 34 people) is almost here.
 
1640698291289.png
THE ZOE GRAPH OF ONGOING CASES WITH THE FAINTEST HINTS OF A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE NEAR VERTICAL INCREASE IN PAST DAY OR TWO
 
The number of people in hospital with COVID in England has risen to 9,546, according to latest figures.

This is up 38% from a week earlier and is the highest number since 3 March.

The latest figure compares to 8,474 yesterday, according to NHS England and indicates a 12% rise in the number of people in hospital in a single day

news.sky.com

COVID: Number of people with coronavirus in hospital in England rises to 9,546

The government has announced that there will be no new restrictions put in place in England before the New Year - putting Downing Street out of step with the devolved administrations.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
kaz7 said:
The number of people in hospital with COVID in England has risen to 9,546, according to latest figures.

This is up 38% from a week earlier and is the highest number since 3 March.

The latest figure compares to 8,474 yesterday, according to NHS England and indicates a 12% rise in the number of people in hospital in a single day

news.sky.com

COVID: Number of people with coronavirus in hospital in England rises to 9,546

The government has announced that there will be no new restrictions put in place in England before the New Year - putting Downing Street out of step with the devolved administrations.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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At the moment though this figure is unhelpful. If as @Healdplace has just shown there are nearly 2 million 1 in 30 with covid those in hospital with covid will rise quickly , it doesn’t tell us how fast those in hospital because of covid is rising.
That is the figure we need to base our covid restriction policy on.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL REGIONS

Up by 1072 from 8474 to 9546.

A rise of about 30% in just 48 hours.

Moreover the rises are starting to be everywhere.

London up 384 to 3024.

North West up 166 to 1392.

NE & Yorkshire up 188 to 1077

Midlands up 128 to 1571.

South East up 116 to 1042,


Ventilartors are DOWN though by 18 to 758

Midlands, South East and Yorkshire up. The other main regions down. Including North West down to 88.
 
blueparrot said:
At the moment though this figure is unhelpful. If as @Healdplace has just shown there are nearly 2 million 1 in 30 with covid those in hospital with covid will rise quickly , it doesn’t tell us how fast those in hospital because of covid is rising.
That is the figure we need to base our covid restriction policy on.
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No,it doesnt but the numbers do matter as they are at this rate fast going to get to a tipping point n England where with staff off isolating or sick and normal mid Winter reasons for patient rises already a problem then a deeper problem may occur.

You add 1000 a day for the next 10 days and we are heading for 20K plus in England.

And we do not yet know what Omicron is doing to the other nations but we have to suspect they too will escalate even if the numbers getting really sick are a small fraction as that small fraction of a huge number can be a lot.

We have to hope the cases flatten off and fall as they dd in South Africa not stay at 125 K a day if that is the number resulting in 1K a day going into hospital in England.
 
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