COVID Data Thread

SCOTLAND CASES - THE RISE OF OMICRON OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS

CASES IN DATE ORDER:- MON 20 DEC to MON 3 JAN

6734 - 5242 - 5967 - 6215 - 7076 (CHRISTMAS EVE) - 8252 (CHRISTMAS DAY) - 11,030 (BOXING DAY) -

10,562 - 9360 - 15,849 - 16,857 - 11,962 (NEW YEAR'S EVE) - 17,065 (NEW YEAR'S DAY) -

14,080 (YESTERDAY)

20,217 (TODAY)
 
xgorton said:
Unbelievable the people on this site that have proved positive after there test,jabs boosters more jabs (4th coming along soon) people need to stop going in pubs, restaurants, holidays and crowded places before blaming the unjabed.
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Absolute rubbish. People will live their lives and so they should
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

ONLY SCOTLAND AND ENGLAND REPORTING AND NO DEATH DATA HERE EITHER TODAY

THERE ARE SO MANY TESTS BEING PROCESSED THEY SAY THESE MAY EVEN BE AN UNDER ESTIMATE!

TODAY THOUGH IS A NEW SINGLE DAY RECORD IN SCOTLAND

20, 217 cases - was 10, 562 last week & 6734 two weeks ago today

34.9% positivity - highest ever here - was 15.2% two weeks ago

1031 patients - UP from 859 last data 48 hours ago - was 555 last Monday - so DOUBLED in 7 days

Though that 478 extra patients is from at least 80,000 cases in the same 7 days.

So around one in 200 cases becoming hospitalised patients.

38 ventilated - was 37 last week - so as you see despite all those cases and near 500 more in hospital ventilated patients have barely moved.

THIS SUPPORTS WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT OMICRON - MANY CATCH IT - FEWER GOING INTO HOSPITAL FROM IT AND EVEN FEWER NEEDING VENTILATION SO LIKELY TO DIE FROM IT.
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I know its widely discussed, but from anything I've read there's still no breakdown of admissions which are either incidental or admissions where Covid is the primary factor. With such level of spread in the community, it must be reasonable to suspect that a high number of the hospital admissions will be purely incidental. (Not having a dig at your figures btw, it is what it is!)

The ventilation number is extremely reassuring.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I know its widely discussed, but from anything I've read there's still no breakdown of admissions which are either incidental or admissions where Covid is the primary factor. With such level of spread in the community, it must be reasonable to suspect that a high number of the hospital admissions will be purely incidental. (Not having a dig at your figures btw, it is what it is!)

The ventilation number is extremely reassuring.
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There is a weekly analysis of exactly that for England.

See primary diagnosis supplement.

www.england.nhs.uk

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk

Not sure about rest of UK
 
I notice the BBC have JUST spotted the worrying rise in Northern Ireland care home cases that the data was flagging up a week ago. And I have been referring to for days in the NI numbers. Such a shame they have to be told about things that are obvious to anyone following the numbers from long before.

In a situation we are in where days mean lives I find that very poor reaction from our media. But not suprising sadly. I have lots of first hand experience of knowing what the press in the UK are like. It is a key reason I look at the data myself not trust to seeing it filtered by them days afterwards.
 
Data delayed again today until at least 5.30 due to the England death numbers being late in appearing.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I know its widely discussed, but from anything I've read there's still no breakdown of admissions which are either incidental or admissions where Covid is the primary factor. With such level of spread in the community, it must be reasonable to suspect that a high number of the hospital admissions will be purely incidental. (Not having a dig at your figures btw, it is what it is!)

The ventilation number is extremely reassuring.
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Yes they will but it makes little difference, once in hospital whether incidental or not they have to be isolated causing more wards to be used and staffing / equipment issues.
For example a stroke patient admitted would normally go to the stroke ward with specialist staff and equipment, but if they test positive for covid they have to be isolated from the general stroke ward. Into a ward that needs staffing and as a result can’t be used for it’s usual purpose.
So while on one hand it’s good less are in hospital for covid, the fact many are in with covid doesn’t help the staff / capacity issue.
 
blueparrot said:
Yes they will but it makes little difference, once in hospital whether incidental or not they have to be isolated causing more wards to be used and staffing / equipment issues.
For example a stroke patient admitted would normally go to the stroke ward with specialist staff and equipment, but if they test positive for covid they have to be isolated from the general stroke ward. Into a ward that needs staffing and as a result can’t be used for it’s usual purpose.
So while on one hand it’s good less are in hospital for covid, the fact many are in with covid doesn’t help the staff / capacity issue.
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Exactly, as I have said before when this question came up as to why I do not post it. They will all be treated as Covid patients and so recorded as such. But we have known this difference was occurring in South Africe from weeks ago - many tested only after entering hospital with something else - so it was always likely to be the case here too.

With 200,000 cases a day and most of them largely asymptomatic as far as hospitalisation is required it is simply inevitable some will either have long standing conditions made worse that triggers need to be treated or by sheer chance got something else or just fell off a roof whilst having Covid and not knowing this.

So never really a viable option to try to separate anyway.

I suspect it is not uncommonly just Covid that kills people but the secondary consequences that result from it imvading the body depending on individual risk factors.

It will only be a factor in terms of recording deaths properly where deciding IF Covid was the cause or just a factor or just there and not even connected with the death is a tough thing to figure out. As I know from my own family and have mentioned before.

But if you are in hospital WITH Covid for purposes of hospital treatment that is what matters there and then. It still has to be treated as a Covid case.
 
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By the way as of last Friday in Scotland just 1 of the 859 patients then in hospital with Covid was in the 36 who were on ventilated icu beds and also had the Omicron variant according to the Edinburgh News.
 
blueparrot said:
Yes they will but it makes little difference, once in hospital whether incidental or not they have to be isolated causing more wards to be used and staffing / equipment issues.
For example a stroke patient admitted would normally go to the stroke ward with specialist staff and equipment, but if they test positive for covid they have to be isolated from the general stroke ward. Into a ward that needs staffing and as a result can’t be used for it’s usual purpose.
So while on one hand it’s good less are in hospital for covid, the fact many are in with covid doesn’t help the staff / capacity issue.
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It makes a huge difference to the appropriate public response though. Since forever we've lived with colds and workforces whether it be NHS, Teachers, Police, Railworkers etc decide for themselves if they're fit enough for work. If not, phone in sick. There's never been a requirement to isolate for something of that ilk, so if a novel coronavirus is proving extremely successful at transmission but really not so much at causing severe disease (partly due to the virus itself and partly due to immunity) then the response of self isolation in itself should be brought into question, especially for the asymptomatic.
 
Healdplace said:
By the way as of last Friday in Scotland just 1 of the 859 patients then in hospital with Covid was in the 36 who were on ventilated icu beds and also had the Omicron variant according to the Edinburgh News.
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Many of those 36 I’m guessing will be long term ventilated.I know there is one in my daughters hospital who has been there for weeks. I know they are there because of covid damage but obviously no longer test as positive for covid, so not sure whether they still count as a covid patient. There have been no Omicrom ICU admissions in her hospital.
 
I think the fact Boris is not rushing at all to change anything in England suggests the transition to what you suggest Ayrshire is gradually being introduced.

If we had had 200,000 cases last January and effectively done little except tell people to be careful or wears masks in enclosed spaces it would have seemed crazy. And would have been. Now the picture has changed. And I think it is just a series of tip toe steps towards normality by the Summer.

Assumimg nothng else changes.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
It makes a huge difference to the appropriate public response though. Since forever we've lived with colds and workforces whether it be NHS, Teachers, Police, Railworkers etc decide for themselves if they're fit enough for work. If not, phone in sick. There's never been a requirement to isolate for something of that ilk, so if a novel coronavirus is proving extremely successful at transmission but really not so much at causing severe disease (partly due to the virus itself and partly due to immunity) then the response of self isolation in itself should be brought into question, especially for the asymptomatic.
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Depends what you mean as severe even if they are only in hospital 3 or 4 days, if it’s so rampant all those needing hospital are the same 3 or 4 days or crossing over it’s a problem, especially if those admitted for other reason also have it and need isolating. We can’t stop it but if we can spread it out over a month rather than 2 weeks for example it can relieve a lot of pressure.
 
blueparrot said:
Many of those 36 I’m guessing will be long term ventilated.I know there is one in my daughters hospital who has been there for weeks. I know they are there because of covid damage but obviously no longer test as positive for covid, so not sure whether they still count as a covid patient. There have been no Omicrom ICU admissions in her hospital.
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That is very possibly true.

And ventilators will be the last measure to rise other than deaths so we have to be careful being too optimistic as the sheer numbers goimg into hospital will push these icu numbers up too just as a proportion. But there seems so far to be hope the percentage goig onto them is lower due to the non invasion of the lungs by Omicron in the same way as before.

The only thing we have to watch is the cases are just starting to filter through to the older more vulnerable age groups and these are the ones most likely to change that balance and was less well seen in South Africa as there were fewer elderly patients.

Hopefully the pattern will continue but I imagine nobody is sure of that until we see the numbers over the next two or three weeks.
 
On Twitter a US doctor has just posted that they are noticing that patients (over 55) with Covid (often unvaccinated or not boosted) are often being admitted primarily to be rehydrated on an IV for 1/2 days as they had become severely dehydrated. After that they are then usually able to go home.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

This is OK news actually in England.

Good for London. As things seem to be slowing.

Sadly MUCH Less so in the North West - though - which is now clearly the area most impacted.

NW had its worst day for admissions since last winter. Way ahead of the rest of the regions with a rise of over 400 patients just today!

Up from 1942 Friday to 2384 today after actually FALLING by 119 to 1965 yesterday.

It was inevitable from the way the cases were going that NW would have a day like this as it was what London did just before Christmas.

I suspect the next few days will be bad news in the NW region.

But given how fast London seems to have slowed things if not as such turned it round yet (they were still up themselves by 104 today) then it is hopeful the North West peak will be short lived too.

Though we need to see London patients fall before we can know how long NW will stay at a high level in coming weeks.

London over the weekend went from 3636 Friday to 3666 Saturday - 3744 yesterday & 3848 today.

So up just 212 over the weekend V the North West's 1942 to 2384 = 442
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
It makes a huge difference to the appropriate public response though. Since forever we've lived with colds and workforces whether it be NHS, Teachers, Police, Railworkers etc decide for themselves if they're fit enough for work. If not, phone in sick. There's never been a requirement to isolate for something of that ilk, so if a novel coronavirus is proving extremely successful at transmission but really not so much at causing severe disease (partly due to the virus itself and partly due to immunity) then the response of self isolation in itself should be brought into question, especially for the asymptomatic.
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It’s a very worthwhile question as is why we still have ‘covid wards’ and ’non-covid’ wards. Given the massive community spread it’ll be almost impossible not to test positive whilst in hospital over the next 3/4 weeks.
Perhaps the answer is to have vaccinated and not vaccinated wards given the different level of intervention required?
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL VENTILATORS

These actually FELL over the weekend - from 789 to 777.

Again supporting the short stay not very ill nature of most of the patients being admitted.

Despite that 442 patient rise over the weekend in the NW those ventilated only rose from 89 to 95.

And in the period from pre Christmas to now when London patients have grown by 2000 to 3848 their ventilator numbers are only up by 32 to 238.

That is about 1.5% of those admitted needing this support. It was a lot more than that last Winter. About 6 times that I think.
 
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