COVID Data Thread

42 deaths - all in England

It was 143 last Monday but the holidays suggest we should be cautious of any real comparison as reporting is all over the place and will be until after Wednesday.

157, 758 cases

England only 137. 541

Up 13,994 on yesterday

Only England and Scotland. So probably up to 20K or more to add if Wales & N Ireland were factored in.
 
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kaz7 said:
People die on ventilators , where do you think the deaths come from
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Was that a reply to my post?

Not sure. But if so.

Of course they do, but that is not really relevant to comparing numbers then and now as it was always true. So the reduction in the percentage increase is still notable.
 
kaz7 said:
Not particular to your post but i always think the same thing , just said it today
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Yes it is true. I agree. Why these numbers matter. And probably why the death numbers are well down as there is a much lower percentage on ventilators than there were in the wave l2 months ago.

On 3 JAN 2021 29,033 patients & 2420 on ventilators

On 3 JAN 2022 about 16,000 patients & 850 on ventilators

The difference in numbers on them now v last year is clear. Would have been around 1400 at a rough check on the same patient ratio now if nothing had chamged.

The vaccines and natural immunity built up and possibly the different behaviour of Omicron in not attacking the lungs will be why it is well down.

I had hoped it might be a bit more of a reduction but much of that reduction is a life saved so we can only be grateful. And it may turm out to be more in the end as this time last year we were about 2 or 3 weeks away from the peak numbers and may be a not dissimilar period away a year on. So we will see what happens.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS PAST FEW DAYS

48 hours behind as always so WED / THU / FRI / SAT

2370 - 2114 - 1781 - 1819

VERSUS SAME DAYS LAST WEEK

1246 - 1252 - 1020 - 1281


Both were holiday periods and the numbers ARE up but the picture here looks better than it might.


REGIONALLY OVER THE FOUR DAYS V SAME FOUR DAYS LAST WEEK


LONDON 511 - 450 - 319 - 314 V 386 - 390 - 278 - 364

AS YOU CAN SEE THE BIG FALL IN LONDON IS MOSTLY WHY IT HAS TURNED AROUND


MIDLANDS 503 - 395 - 359 - 340 V 201 - 206 - 173 - 219

NE & YORKSHIRE 363 - 309 - 336 - 289 V 129 - 160 - 144 - 146

THOUGH THESE TWO REGIONS FALL A BIT TOO BUT WELL UP WEEK TO WEEL EVEN AT THEIR LOWEST UNLIKE LONDON


HOWEVER - NORTH WEST

404 - 398 - 326 - 353 V 173 - 173 - 151 - 186


NOW ABOVE LONDON AND WELL UP ON LAST WEEK

AND IMPORTANTLY THE BIG RISE - OVER 400 IN ONE GO - HAPPENED IN THE NORTH WEST TODAY

AND WE WILL NOT SEE THOSE ADMISSIONS NUMBERS FOR TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY

BUT WE CAN ALREADY KNOW THEY ARE GOING TO BE WELL UP FOR THE NORTH WEST
 
ENGLAND PATIENT NUMBERS OVER THE WEEKEND

FRI/SAT/SUN/TODAY

12,395 / 12, 615 / 13, 151 / 14, 210

So up 1059 today - 419 in the NW

Others East up 51, London up 104, Midlands up 222, NE & Yorkshire up 121, South East up 101 AND South West up 101.

So every region going up today and NW easily the most. The rest fairly much akin.

MON to MON patients are up from 8474 last Monday to 14,210

A weekly rise of 5736 around two thirds up week to week.

The MON to MON rise the week before was 6688 TO 8474 = 1786 just over 20%

AND week before the rise was 6395 TO 6688 = 293 about 4%


SO A VERY CLEAR STEEP UPWARD CLIMB WEEK TO WEEK
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND CASES - THE RISE OF OMICRON OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS

CASES IN DATE ORDER:- MON 20 DEC to MON 3 JAN

6734 - 5242 - 5967 - 6215 - 7076 (CHRISTMAS EVE) - 8252 (CHRISTMAS DAY) - 11,030 (BOXING DAY) -

10,562 - 9360 - 15,849 - 16,857 - 11,962 (NEW YEAR'S EVE) - 17,065 (NEW YEAR'S DAY) -

14,080 (YESTERDAY)

20,217 (TODAY)
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Looks like the ridiculous restrictions she put in place are having a huge effect…..
 
True_Blue69 said:
Looks like the ridiculous restrictions she put in place are having a huge effect…..
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Agreed this was not going to be stopped by the time we were on to it. Just too infective and folk were just too fed up about a second Christmas disrupted. Time will tell if letting it rip unhindered works out better over letting it rip with a feather duster waved in its path. Chances are there will be little difference. Guess whichever nation comes out of this wave first with fewest casualties will be seen to have made the right choice. But it was never an easy decision either way.
 
ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES

Most regions up but North West far and away had the worst day today.


REGION TODAY - UP/DOWN - V SEVEN DAYS AGO



NORTH WEST 24,183 19,375 - UP from 19,375 V 13,973

North West takes over as the highest region from London with biggest weekly rise of over 10K.Not a shock with the hospital numbers today.


LONDON 20,080 - UP from 19,951 V 22,224 - down week to week

SOUTH EAST 17,195 - UP from 16,033 V 13,307

EAST 15,671 - UP from 12,556 V 11,698

YORKSHIRE 14,864 - UP from 14,298 V 11,222

WEST MIDLANDS 14,259 - UP from 11,388 V 7461

EAST MIDLANDS 13,532 - UP from 9573 V 7453

SOUTH WEST 8365 - DOWN from 9337 V 6193

NORTH EAST 7311 - DOWN from 7474 V 3190
 
GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7732 - Back to normality it seems

UP by 1548 from 6184 yesterday

NW Total 24,183- UP from yesterday by 4808


GM 31.9% NW total today. WAY down again and very similar to yesterday's number of 31.1%.

A SURPRISE - SO PERHAPS GREATER MANCHESTER HAS PEAKED AND THE REST OF THE NORTH WEST IS RISING - GUESS WE WILL SEE AS THE WEEK GOES ON



MANCHESTER 1352 - UP 240 on day & UP 353 on week - Pop Score 243 (POP 23,977)

WIGAN 1288- UP 60 on day & UP 477 on week - Pop Score 389 * (POP 23,948)) Highest daily Pop score rise today again - 24K club looms tomorrow aas it does for Manchester.

BOLTON 1047 - UP 472 on day & UP 476 on week - Pop Score 363 to easily enter the 22K club today POP 22,280) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - BUT lost 102 of its lead here over Stockport today and now ahead by 'only' 887. Quite a reversal again!

STOCKPORT 768 - UP 187 on day & UP 102 on week - Pop Score 261 to enter the 23K club after 3 days in the 22K club (POP 23,167) - another surprisingly good day here and took over 100 back from Bolton in one go.

TRAFFORD 650 - UP 59 on day & UP 112 on week - Pop Score 274 to enter the 24K club (POP 24,007) - After being best in GM across the pandemic a week or two before Christmas it is now ahead of Manchester and enters the 24 K club before them by a day! Such have the GM Pop scores squeezed together lately as vaccinations have levelled the playing field a lot it seems.


SALFORD 643 - UP 34 on day & UP 104 on week - Pop Score 245 (POP 24,870) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic - leading TRAFFORD - now in second place ahead of Manchester for first time ever - by 863. Looks like it will be first in GM into the 25K club tomorrow. But not the last.

ROCHDALE 512 - UP 118 on day & UP 105 on week. Pop Score 229 (POP 23,762)

OLDHAM 507 - UP 138 on day & UP 220 on week - Pop Score 213. (POP 23,310) * Lowest pop score rise in GM today again nobody up on the day under 200 - unthinkable 2 or 3 weeks ago.

TAMESIDE 486 - DOWN 11 on day & UP 68 on week. Pop Score 214 (POP 23,605)

BURY 479 - UP 151 on day & UP 131 on week. Pop Score 251 (POP 23,523)
 
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WEEKLY POP SCORES IN GREATER MANCHESTER



EVERY borough is way over its highest ever numbers. In fact all but two are now over 2000 when we have only seen a couple of brief forays over 1000 by anyone in GM before.




WIGAN 2538- was 1399 last week & 420 last month Almost doubled in a week to the highest ever GM Pop Score and SIX times where it was 2 weeks before Christmas.Like most in GM score is Delta 0 Omicron 6

SALFORD 2400 - was 1697 last week & 404 last month

STOCKPORT 2374 - was 1611 last week & 421 last month - first to go up but looks to be settling now.

TRAFFORD 2256 - was 1645 last week & 492 last month

TAMESIDE 2170 - was 1478 last week & 411 last month

OLDHAM 2091 - was 1101 last week & 323 last month

ROCHDALE 2050 - was 1171 last week & 429 last month

MANCHESTER 2032 - was 1617 last week & 330 last month - Manchester looks to be flattening too.

BURY 1919 - was 1409 last week & 445 last month

BOLTON 1900 - was 1099 last week & 321 last month 'Best in GM and well clear as the lowest Pop Score across the pandemic too. Getting Delta early paid off it seems. But it seems last in has not protected it as like Wigan it has doubled this week and looks bound for going over 2000 any day.
 
WALES DATA

8 deaths - was 3 last week

22,317 cases - new record high - was 12,378 last week.

I think this will be data for last weekend - so two days - as nothing was posted yesterday (Monday usually has the Saturday & Sunday numbers together - Tuesday usually just the Monday numbers). But not made clear. We will find out when Gov UK publishes tonight.

Still no hospital data since 29 December either.
 
The BBC has a feature on real problems in Nth Lancashire and Cumbria hospitals due to record case numbers.

It refers to data in December as they use the 5 day old numbers. Claiming 2000 cases a day in Cumbria.

So I looked at the data and they have certainly gone up but not I think as badly as they have in other places like Stockport (that the media totally ignored for weeks when it was at record highs) and currenty both Bolton and Wigan that have accelerated a lot in past few days as Sockport has levelled off.

Just pre Christmas Cumbria had 500 cases. On Christmas Eve 900. It then rose daily 1300, 1500, 1800 to top out at 2200. But has fallen back since to 1300. So yes it is up but I would not have thought unusually so.

Using cases like this is not really the way to go now anyhow - especially depending on older figures as it misses the current trend in a very fast moving wave.

I will be very surprised if almost everywhere in the North West is not showing a similar pattern to the above. Most of Greater Manchester and Merseyside certainly has.

What it does flag up though is small rural areas with limited hospital capacity are likely to be the ones under the most strain as they often are isolated by some distance from other health areas of any size that could share the load.

We will be seeing a lot of that as this wave spreads. Lincolnshire was flagged up the other day as in crisis. There will be others coming.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

DO NOT PANIC TOO MUCH - THIS IS FOUR DAYS WORTH OF DATA IN ONE.

STILL REPRESENTS A BIG RISE AS WE SEE EVERYWHERE CARE OF OMICRON

15 deaths - was 1 on last reported day (last Friday)

30, 423 cases - was 7215 on last reported data (last Friday)

50, 627 WEEKLY CASES TOTAL - BY MILES A NEW RECORD - WAS 35,107 LAST FRIDAY

112 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - NOT UPDATED SINCE 31 DEC - WAS 46 SEVEN DAYS BEFORE THIS.

THERE IS CLEARLY A BIG CONCERN THAT CHRISTMAS HAS ALLOWED IT TO SPREAD HERE

348 Patients - was 314 on last report Friday

25 ventilated - was 25 on last report Friday

SO AGAIN NOTE PATIENTS UP BUT VENTILATORS NOT

THIS IS THE REAL GOOD NEWS WE ARE SEEING EVERYWHERE.

MOST CASES NOT SERIOUS ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ICU VENTILATORS WHICH SHOULD MEAN A LOT FEWER DEATHS
 
SCOTLAND DATA

THIS IS ONLY TODAY

0 deaths - was 0 last week - Bank Holiday so no reporting likely

17,259 cases - was 20,217 yesterday & 9360 last week - So down on the day but double last week

35.3% positivity - was 34.9% yesterday

1147 patients - was 1031 yeserday & 599 last Tuesday - so up 116 in last 24 hours and doubled in the week

42 ventuilated icu - was 38 yesterday & 37 last week - so up a bit but not by a lot given the patients doubling.
 
So 70,000 cases reported without England. Unprecedented.

Though some might be redistributed to past days. It is a bit iconsistent if they do that or not. Depends how the country report it I guess.

We will almost certainly be over 200,000 today. Possibly close to what will be the peak if the southern regions are still falling and North West close to flattening based on what London did.

But we are going to see numbers around here for a week or ten days at least I supect.

After that I do expect it to drop as this level of cases has the advantage that it peaks faster than a slow rise would and is hard to sustain over weeks. And so may fall relatively swiftly too.But we are as yet to see how London behaves on the way down
 
HERE ARE THE 50 K NORTHERN IRELAND PAST WEEK CASES BY NUMBERS TESTED POSITIVE IN EACH AGE GROUP

SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE UPPER AGES BUT STILL BY FAR THE LOWEST PERCENTAGE - THE CARE HOME OUTBREAKS DOUBLING IN A WEEK WILL BE A CONCERNING FACTOR HERE

WE SHOULD EXPECT THE UNDER 19s TO START RISING AGAIN NOW SCHOOLS ARE BACK

BUT AS LONG AS THE DIAGRAM KEEPS THIS BASIC SHAPE WE CANNOT HOPE FOR BETTER AS THE TOP IS THE MOST VULNERABLE AND THE BOTTOM THE LEAST SO THIS IS THE SAFEST WE CAN EVER BE


1641309786344.png
 
48 Deaths


218, 724 Cases - over 200K as expected.

UK record

BUT NOT AN ENGLAND RECORD - THERE WERE TWO LAST WEEK OVER 160,000

England 148,725 - was 137, 541 yesterday & 117,093 last Tuesday
 
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