COVID Data Thread

Today's Zoe App graph of ongoing cases - which as you cansee is still falling at what looks like a steady pace. IF it continues at this pace it will be about the first week in February when it reaches the point equivalent to where the sharp rises began - which I think we can correlate with Omicron's arrival.


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kaz7 said:
Where are the media (yawn) not sitting f5 ing to get the numbers and rushing them out in the news , hence why you get the headline number then a couple of hours later what is up or down generally speaking , they have many more things to be writing about
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Not sure what your argument here is Kaz, or if I even disagree with what you say - we may well agree - but I certainly do not sit f5 ing all day either.

Still I would expect all journalists who have been asked to cover the biggest story of the past 2 years to by now know where and when to look to find things and their meaning when they do. As I did by experience. No more. Which does not mean sitting around all day waiting and not doing other things.

And I would hope that given this HAS been the biggest story of the past 2 years by now some of them should at least have learned on the job what matters most - and why - and what the numbers mean in context rather than just cite a press release. It is what journalists do. I know that first hand.

And some do this well. Others less so.The difference is easy to spot. And media do have an agenda built on the audience they reach and so aim their stories towards. Does not mean you lie. Does mean you angle. Again I know this as I have worked for many media sources as a freelance and/or been interviwed by them countless times and seen how sometimes what I tell them turns into what they tell the world and how this is not always the same thing. It is just how the media works.

Absolutely correct that this is a very different situation now to what it has been for most of the past 22 months and there are indeed now bigger stories. No argument, And we are much closer to the end than we ever were and pretty soon the Covid stories will not be on page 1 but page 10 and these threads will either vanish for good or be so far down the order they might as well have been closed. That will be a good day for all. Me included. Cannot come soon enough.

Does not mean reporting on where we are at this stage is not still important or they would not still be doing it in major articles that are high up every bulletin or paper.

And the responsibility of informing the public knowledgeably still stands until it becomes a retrospective of how we did - and not a story of consequence as for now whilst hundreds a day are dying it still remains.
 
ZOE NUMBERS TODAY

Predicted new cases down to 144,527 from 149.178 & 152,456 day before - so the fall today increases. Last week the number was 184,365.

Ongoing symptomatic cases - which the graph above plots from late last Summer to today are falling daily and have been since they peaked on JAN 11 on 2,751,074.

Today they are 2,470, 910 down from 2,744, 347 last week - a fall of 273,437 in the past seven days. UP by 50K on yesterday

The fall from yesterday is today 51,654 - it was 49,913 the day before.
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL DATA

The falls in each region are mostly still happening but some rather slowly than others though most better today than yesterday. Here are the main UK regions and their track

1: NORTH EAST stays top - FROM 3389 / 4169 TO 3181 / 3953 - biggest fall today

2 NORTH WEST stays second- FROM 2652 / 3050 TO 2462 / 2854 - almost as big a fall

3: YORKSHIRE third - FROM 2524 / 2968 TO 2379 / 2818 - another good fall

4: LONDON fourth and also still falling but more slowly - FROM 2329 / 2620 TO 2257 /2549

Scotland is best in UK - down FROM 1522 / 1883 TO 1459 / 1816

The best England region is South West but they are actually DOWN today FROM 1577 / 1839 TO 1526 / 1789

EVERY ONE OF THE 12 REGIONS IS DOWN ON ZOE TODAY
 
I’m not surprised about the guy who switched from the Tories to Labour over Covid. Bury has always been a tad strange. I knew a lad who’d been a junior Blue but followed the rags once they started winning the League
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA

The highest in the UK - Sunderland - falls today by 4K to 81,614

Most places in the North West are going down well now though plenty still remain high.

The area around Preston and the Ribble Valley are the hot spot - Chorley just north of the areas in GM such as Wigan and Bolton are up on 75,674.

West Lancashire - between Merseyside & Wigan falls 3K to 58,823.

On Merseyside numbers are falling well too - Liverpool down around 3K to 62,709. St Helens by 2k to 46,896 and Warrington on 32,732 & Wirral on 37,744 are fairly flat but lower than the above.

Cheshire West & Chester is still falling well and now on 36,666 BUT Cheshire East (sorry Andyhinch) is going the other way and is still rising slowly but steadily as it has been for weeks - on 48,438


AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - HERE ARE THE TEN BOROUGHS IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST


1 OLDHAM 22,465 - down 500

2 STOCKPORT 39,525 - down 2K and been falling steadily for a week now

3 TRAFFORD 48,056 - been very flat around here for over a week

4 BOLTON 52,814 - down 3K and falling for 3 days now

5 SALFORD - 57,960 - down 5K - falling fast after being flat aroud 75 K a week ago

6 MANCHESTER 60,508 - down 2K

7 ROCHDALE 61,811 - up 100 - looks to have flattened after recent sharp rises

8 BURY 65,455 - up 7 K and risen 35 K in 10 days - biggest riser at the moment

9 WIGAN 68,995 - up 1K - risen 25 K in a week

10 TAMESIDE 74,865 - up 800 and risen 26K in 10 days - just 100 below Salford's highest ever score in GM but seems to be levelling off just in time and that record might now remain
 
SCOTLAND DATA

29 deaths - was 21 last week

8495 (*NB SEE BELOW REALLY 4937) cases - was 7606 last week

16.9% positivity - was 19.1% last week

ON THE FACE OF IT THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST BIG WEEK TO WEEK RISE BUT THE POSITIVTY DOWN AND THE CONFUSING NEW WAY THEY NOW COUNT THE CASES IS HARD TO DIECTLY COMPARE THINGS:- THIS IS A TOTAL OF 3734 VIA A PCR, 86 VIA A PCR FOLLOWING AN LFD AND 4675 JUST AN LFD.

NB SEE BELOW - GOV UK HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RECORD ALL OF THIS AND JUST USE THE PCR TEST CONFIRMED ONES OF APPARENTLY 4937 - VERY ODD FOR SCOTLAND TO MAKE THIS SWITCH SO LATE ON

1571 Patients - was 1546 yesterday & 1537 last week - These ARE edging up so that suggests things might not be going as well in Scotland

44 ventilated icu - was 42 yesterday & 59 last week
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 2 last week - like everywhere these are rising

4451 cases - was 2922 last week - Big jump here - but a lot of these are the fast rising 19 and unders so presumably school testing

25,823 Weekly Cases - was 24.348 yesterday & 27,934 last week

220 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 215 YESTERDAY & 205 LAST WEEK - THIS IS SADLY RISING AGAIN

404 patients - was 412 yesterday & 439 last week

20 ventilated - was 22 yesterday & 24 last week

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOWER NUMBER ON VENTILATORS IN N IRELAND SINCE MID JULY


Whilst some of this data looks worrying the falls in hospital tell you it is not what it seems.

40.4% of these cases are in 19 and unders - up 1059 in 24 hours onto 10,434 and up from 38.5% since yesterday.

But only 22 over 60 were added which CUTS the percentage of these

Only 1.4% over 80 and 7.1% over 60 - down from 7.6%

So if you dig into the numbers they are not what they appear.
 
When you hear those stats that tell you that vaccines are 93% successful at keeping you out of hospital if you are over 60 d tripple jabbed the NI numbers above show it in real life.

Of course, the number is likely a bit lower or higher as we do not know how many of these cases have not had any vaccines. There will be some.

But the visible proof that they do what the doctors say they do is still worth pointing out in real time data.
 
Cases top 100K again sadly - 108,069

Third straight rise and up 33,028 over those three days.

Up today 13,637 on yesterday from 94,432 & DOWN 21,518 from 129, 587 last week

England only 96,545

Up 11,558 on yesterday's 84.987 & DOWN 19,628 from 116,173 last week

Very likely the extra school testing positive cases are a big factor in England as we know they are N Ireland (see above)

LAST THURSDAY WAS THE FIRST DAY THEY WENT DOWN - FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS - SO IT WILL BE TELLING WHAT HAPPENS TOMORROW AS THERE WERE 109,133 THEN - ONLY 1064 MORE THAN TODAY - SO WE COULD SEE THE FIRST WEEK TO WEEK RISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES



Deaths 359 all settings - down from 398 last week & 438 yesterday

301 England - down from 400 yesterday & 361 last week
 
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NB: Gov UK have decided only to add the PCR cases from Scotland and exclude the LFTs.

So they are only counting 4937 of the 8495 Scotland reported today.

Meaning they are DOWN from 7606 last week not up.

I will do the same from now on. Though as I cannot easily see where the 4937 comes from we might have to wait for the number Gov UK add unless Scotand change this rather silly difference from the rest of the UK which does not actually gve the number Gov UK are going to officialy record.

No idea why Scotland seems to be choosing this late in the game by accident or not to make it look like they have more cases than they probably do.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS

Another really good day here happily.

Admissions (Monday) on 1808 - was 2180 last week & 2219 the previous Mondays

Patients (Today) DOWN 476 onto 15,742 first sub 16K in hospital in past two weeks.

Last week the fall was just 58 - onto 16,881 - so down week to week 1139 - biggest weekly fall since Omicron

Every region bar East is down - though NW only down 19 (one of the least) to 2949. London falls 206 to 3179 & NE & Yorkshire down 134 to 2799


Ventilators also fall big again - by 28 to just 586. First sub 600 on 21 July

North West down on 67. Only NE & Yorkshire is up (by 8 to 94)

South WEst is on just 15. Its lowest since 7 July.

FORGET THE CASES - THESE ARE THE NUMBERS THAT MATTER
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL FULL NUMBERS TODAY

Good news pretty much all round



ADMISSIONS (Monday) (all other data is from today)


1808 - was 2180 last week & 2219 Monday before


London 235 V 335 V 401

Midlands 407 V 404 V 354

NE & Yorkshire 373 V 456 V 374

AND

NORTH WEST 310 V 407 V 479



PATIENTS

15,742 - down 476 today from 16,218 - Last week was down 58 from 16,939 to 16,881

Week to week fall 1139 - Previous week was rise of 1222 from 15,659 TO 16,881

Daily trend last 4 days:- UP 91 - UP 249 - DOWN 403 - DOWN 476


Regions (daily change and V last week): - East up 16 to 1363 V 1452, London down 206 to 3179 V 3797, Midlands down 50 to 3051 V 3093, NE & Yorkshire down 134 to 2799 V 2826, South East down 47 to 1519 V 1616, South West down 31 to 882 V 941 AND NORTH WEST down 19 to 2949 V 3156


Ventilators

586 - down 28 from 614

(daily change and V last week) also fall by 9 to 614 V 686 last Tuesday - Last week was down 14 from 686 to 672

Week to week fall 86 - Previous week was fall of 97 from 769 TO 672

Regions (daily change and V last week): - East down 2 to 56 V 72, London down 17 to 197 V 228, Midlands down 7 to 100 V 101, NE & Yorkshire up 8 to 94 V 79 , South East down 5 to 57 V 70, South West down 3 to 15 V 38 AND NORTH WEST down 2 to 67 V 84
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Everyone up today again by modest numbers.



SOUTH EAST on 16,326 - UP from 14,739 V 14,606 last week & 20,807 2 wks ago

LONDON on 13,328 - UP from 11,116 V 15,453 last week & 22,558 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 11,210 - UP from 10,177 V 19,151 last week & 19,756 2 wks ago



EAST on 11,126 - UP from 9381 V 10,118 last week & 15,142 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 11,070 - UP from 10,102 V 14,814 last week & 18,006 2 wks ago


YORKSHIRE on 9294 - UP from 9147 V 13,685 last week & 15,127 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 9066 - UP from 7646 V 8769 last week & 10,993 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 8045 - UP from 6990 V 8814 last week & 14,331 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 5903 - UP from 5809 V 9987 last week & 9909 2 wks ago
 
Healdplace said:
NB: Gov UK have decided only to add the PCR cases from Scotland and exclude the LFTs.

So they are only counting 4937 of the 8495 Scotland reported today.

Meaning they are DOWN from 7606 last week not up.

I will do the same from now on. Though as I cannot easily see where the 4937 comes from we might have to wait for the number Gov UK add unless Scotand change this rather silly difference from the rest of the UK which does not actually gve the number Gov UK are going to officialy record.

No idea why Scotland seems to be choosing this late in the game by accident or not to make it look like they have more cases than they probably do.
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Currently, apparently to reduce demand on PCR tests, folk in Scotland with no symptoms but with a positive lateral flow test should self isolate without a confirmatory PCR test. Public Health Scotland reports the results separately. The current page (10:20 today) is at:-

https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...OVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Apparently for updating purposes the page is not accessible between 12:45 and 2:00pm.

Not quite sure how the 4937 is derived from this table.

Screenshot at 2022-01-20 10-14-23.png
 
Thank you and agreed.Cassandra - I have always got the data direct for the Scotland site around 2 pm to post in here then -as England seems to take longer to count being by far the biggest nation so likely inevitable there is a delay. Wales posts at noon and N Ireland the same time as Scotland.

So Gov UK is not out with any data until England arrives last - a couple of hours later - sometimes even more when they have issues. Not that rare.

As I said above since Scotland made this change a few days ago (thanks for explaining why - that makes sense) - I have no idea where the actual number that Gov UK has decided to add actually comes from as it is not at all obvious from the numbers that Scotland have published for the last few days.

I cannot see any way the numbers Scotland post at 2 becomes the exact one Gov UK posts later for them. Though they are not miles apart they are not literally the Lfd number.

Guess we will see how the numbers compare tonight. But it seems a needless confusion you would think they could resolve by a phone call.
 
Been a while since I posted a vaccinations update for Greater Manchester.

These now cover the boosters too - and these numbers are possibly more important than ever.

So I thought I would update the list. I put them in order from LOWEST to HIGHEST rates.

There still is quite a difference between top and bottom and the same boroughs are worst and best in much the same degree as was true months ago so IF any attempt have been made to address the imbalance they have clearly not worked and it seems unlikely anything is ever going to change on the skew between the numbers.

Highest percentages of eligible Population who have been jabbed are good - lowest bad - in this table,of course.


BOROUGH // IST DOSE // 2ND DOSE // BOOSTER (in % of eligible population)


MANCHESTER 67.1 // 59.8 // 37.9

SALFORD 72.8 // 66.1 // 43.5

OLDHAM 76.7 // 70.1 // 47.7

ROCHDALE 77.8 // 70.7 // 48.6

BOLTON 79.7 // 72.3 // 50.3

BURY 81.1 // 74.7 // 55.0

TAMESIDE 81.7 // 74.7 // 54.3

TRAFFORD 83.3 // 77.2 // 61.2

WIGAN 83.8 // 77.7 // 57.3

STOCKPORT 85.5 // 79.7 // 63.4
 
On the same basis as above here are the current POP scores (cases per 100,000 population) over the past 7 days in the ten GM boroughs.

In this case LOWEST score obviously is top and HIGHEST bottom.

The past week of big falls has seen boroughs tumble from unprecedentedly high scores in the 2000s to 9 of the 10 now back in three figures.

These numbers are still higher almost everywhere than any past wave in GM but much closer to normal than they were.

Trafford who spiked big in early Winter before Omicron arrived got to about where most in GM are now at its highest. Which then looked very oddly above the rest. But last Summer it was under 30 and all were below 100. Numbers in most boroughs rarely went above 200 in normal times. Anything over 500 in old school pre Omicron thinking was rated by the government as high and put them on a watch list.

Right now that is probably not so as it will be just about everywhere in the UK!



BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // UP/DOWN IN DAY // SCORE LAST WEEK // SCORE 4 WEEKS AGO


STOCKPORT 838 / DOWN 97 / 1750 / 1012

WIGAN 872 / DOWN 127 / 2106 / 704

TRAFFORD 907 / DOWN 53 / 1765 / 1197

OLDHAM 912 / DOWN 120 / 1863 / 652

MANCHESTER 928 / DOWN 112 / 1779 / 1152

ROCHDALE 977 / DOWN 124 / 2121 / 744

SALFORD 984 / DOWN 115 / 2104 / 1148

BOLTON 994 / DOWN 110 / 2082 / 705

BURY 997 / DOWN 61 / 1788 / 1019

TAMESIDE 1111 / DOWN 84 / 2054 / 867
 
Note the interesting fact that if you look at the two tables above - the TOP three most vaccinated boroughs and the top 3 lowest Pop Scores appear identically and in the same order.

Not likely a coincidence but a pretty good indication of the success of the vaccines and the boosters.
 
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