COVID Data Thread

UK DATA

Note there is no data for Scotland today due to the tech issue reported above. There were 7561 cases last week & 3 deaths. Though the cases would almost certainly be lower based on recent days of large week to week falls here.

88 deaths - was 97 last week

England 79 - was 84 last week

70,924 cases - was 81,713 yesterday (though no Scotland there are cases from Wales of which there were none yesterday so still almost certainly a hefty fall).

Last week was 141,472 but all nations reported then

England only 66,273 - was 74,576 yesterday & 121,228 last week

Lowest England total since 14 December - pre Omicron.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Everyone down again today again and just the south east as yesterday NOT below five figures & also one of only three regions where hospital patients rose today. The larger regions including North West patients fell today.



SOUTH EAST on 10,864 - DOWN from 10,920 V 15,739 last week & 16,033 2 wks ago

LONDON on 9612 - DOWN from 10,601 V 16,493 last week & 19,957 2 wks ago - first sub 10K total in London in 37 days.

WEST MIDLANDS on 7383 - DOWN from 8626 V 14,560 last week & 11,388 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 7326 - DOWN from 9591 V 20,254 last week & 19,375 2 wks ago - lowest score in 28 days and first sub 10,000 in 26 days & as you see has dropped like a brick to a third of where it was post Christmas .





YORKSHIRE on 7298 - DOWN from 8519 V 13,180 last week & 14,298 2 wks ago

EAST on 7174 - DOWN from 7754 V 10,481 last week & 12,556 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 5739 - DOWN from 6029 V 8561 last week & 9337 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 5459 - DOWN from 6089 V 10,847 last week & 9573 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 4253 - DOWN from 5907 V 10,167 last week & 7474 2 wks ago
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


The numbers are even closer today amd EVERYONE falls day to day and week to week for the third day running! The drops are now back to normalish numbers so will be much harder to sustain from here. Pretty much everywhere had lowest score in weeks and below Manchester only Bury was not in the 200s as it was just below - most of the 200s are for frst time in some time.

Only Tameside, Manchester and Stockport did NOT have Pop Scores under 100 today. We have had none under 100 for nearly three weeks.


TOTAL 2744 (lowest since 14 Dec in GM) - Down by 811 from 3555 yesterday

North West 7326 - Down by 2265 from 9591 yesterday

GM 37.5% of NW - below average which is good

GM is down from 7744 last week by exactly 5000.

North West is down from 20,254 by 12,480 - which was 38.2% of NW - so GM has fallen relative to the NW in past week from 38.2% to 37.5%




MANCHESTER 577 - DOWN 103 on day & DOWN 682 on week - Pop Score 103 (POP 26,876)

STOCKPORT 298 - DOWN 28 on day & DOWN 407 on week. Pop Score 102. LOST 16 on Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic (POP 26,154)

TAMESIDE 276 - DOWN 19 on day & DOWN 486 on week. Pop Score 122 * - to enter the 27K club (POP 27,091) * Highest Pop Score today

WIGAN 263 - DOWN 139 on day & DOWN 814 on week Pop Score 80* - lowest here in weeks. (POP 27,183) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today

BOLTON 250 - DOWN 182 on day & DOWN 584 on week - Pop Score 86 (POP 25,559) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - Now 595 ahead of Stockport.

SALFORD 247 - DOWN 96 on day & DOWN 573 on week - Pop Score 94 - still only one in the 28K club (POP 28,346) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic

TRAFFORD 228 - DOWN 61 on day & DOWN 290 on week. Pop Score of 96 (POP 26,895)

ROCHDALE 219 - DOWN 81 on day & DOWN 489 on week. Pop Score 97 (POP 27,147)

OLDHAM 200 - DOWN 43 on day & DOWN 293 on week. Pop Score 84 POP 26,399)

BURY 186 - DOWN 60 on day & DOWN 387 on week. Pop Score 97 (POP 26,651)
 
WALES DATA

This is for two days - Saturday & Sunday - as always on Mondays

18 deaths - was 16 last week

17.4% positivity - was 25.8% last week

3975 cases - was 11,693 last week - another huge fall

861 patients - was 849 last week

31 ventilated - was 38 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

These are still rising but do not seem to be accelerating and as they will lag cases by a week or two may even reach a plateau this coming week.



SAT: 160 with 32 North West - was 160 with 35 NW last week

7 in Barking most by trust


SUN: 42 with 9 North West - was 24 with 11 NW last week

11 in Coventry most by trust


MON: 31 with 8 North West - was 15 with 8 NW last week

8 in Liverpool most by trust



So weekend total of 233 V 199 last week.

The 5 day death totals from JAN 01 to JAN 12 - latest at 5 days - are:-


99 - 92 - 104 - 121 - 124 - 127 - 130 - 131 - 142 - 147 - 147 - 134

The weekend lag on death reporting means we should wait and see but there are hints we might be close to flatenning off here.

IF we flatten off not much over 150 I think that is well within the more optimistic calls for this month.

It would be WAY below last Januarys wave where the England hospital peak at 5 days was 787 on Jan 19.Which after add ons reached 872.

The last date - with add ons beyond the five days - when deaths are still UNDER 100 in England hospitals - is JAN 2 which is currently on 99
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND


By Region:


SAT 12 East, 30 London, 25 Midlands, 34 NE & Yorkshire, 32 North West, 14 South East, 13 South West

SUN 8 East, 23 Midlands, 9 North West, 2 South West - others 0 (as in no report)

MON 12 East, 8 North West, 11 South East - others 0 (as in no report)


NORTH WEST TRUSTS:-

SAT 4 each in Manchester, St Helens & Tameside, 3 each in Mid Cheshire & Wirral, 2 each in Blackpool, East Lancashire, Pennine Acute, Southport & Stockport AND 1each in Bolton, Salford, Warrington & Wigan


SUN 2 each in East Cheshire, Nth Lancashire & Pennine Acute & 1 each in Manchester, Salford & St Helens


MON: All 8 were in Liverpool



By age:

SAT 0 - 19 (2), 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (7), 60 - 79 (54),80 PLUS (95)

SUN 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (3), 60 - 79 (12), 80 PLUS (25)

MON 40 - 59 (3), 60 - 79 (9) 80 PLUS (19)

There is a noticeable if modest shift from past weeks where the older ages were more evenly split to more over 80s - much as in N Ireland. Wonder if England care homes have become an unspoken factor like they are elsewhere (Scotland and NI where we have the rising numbers reported).

Also note a small number but proportionatey apparent of younger deaths. 2 under 20, another 4 under 40 and another 13 under 60.

Still comparatively low but standing out with modest overall numbers.

I would suspect some of those of being unvaccinated.
 
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SCOTLAND DATA


NB:- THERE ARE STILL PROBLEMS HERE WITH ONE AREA(THEY DO NOT SAY WHICH) HAVING NOT BEEN ABLE TO REPORT SINCE SATURDAY DUE TO IT ISSUES. ALSO TODAY THEY HAVE CHANGED THE WAY TESTS BECOME CASES - NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN NEXT FEW DAYS. AND AFTER A DAY OR TWO THEY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE ANYWAY


HERE IS WHAT THEY SAY:-

* Please note that, from today, positive cases are reported against the first positive reporting date from PCR or LFD (previously assigned to PCR reporting date)


0 deaths - was 0 last week - Hardly ever is on Monday given Sunday closures

6221 cases - was 11,827 last week

21.3% positivity - was 29.5% last week

1557 patients - was 1540 on last report Saturday - was 1432 last week

43 ventilated - was 46 on last report Saturday - was 54 last week
 
Todays Northern Ireland age split from the week's 23,630 cases.

Children back at school and immediately become the main group testing positive again. At 35.7%

The over 60s are at 9.4% - they have crept up but not drastically. Over 80s though the most from 0.6% to 1.5% under Omicron. Still mercifully low but visibly increased. The 60 - 79s are up from just under 5% to 7,9% - so more in terms of numbers but proportionately less.

These numbers are still far below the 23% or so of over 60s testing positive last January pre vaccines.

How the rise of school age positivity will change this again we will see.


1642430779256.png
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

4 deaths - was 6 last week

3295 cases - was 2706 last week - first week to week rise anywhere in a while

23,630 Weekly Cases Total - was 23, 108 Friday last report & 37,419 last week - again small rise here too

220 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 215 ON FRIDAY LAST REPORT & WAS 202 LAST WEEK - still edging up sadly

394 patients - was 402 Friday & 387 last week

22 ventilated - was 25 Friday & 22 last week
 
UK NUMBERS TODAY

85 deaths - up from 77 last Monday

England only 63 - was 55 last Monday

84.429 cases - first rise in 5 days.

Up 9398 on yesterday - but down from 142,224 last week by 57,795

England only 74,249 - up 7976 on yesterday - but down from 115.998 last week by 41,749
 
1,247,367 pillar 1 & 2 tests today

There were 1.055.620 yeserday 192K fewer

BUT 1.627, 659 last Monday - so a whoping 380K more last week v this
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Everyone up a little today by small margins.



SOUTH EAST on 12,071 - UP from 10,864 V 12,692 last week & 17,195 2 wks ago

LONDON on 9775 - UP from 9612 V 15,235 last week & 20,080 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 9433 - UP from 7326 V 21,484 last week & 24,183 2 wks ago - biggest rise today but still a third of two weeks ago



WEST MIDLANDS on 9137 - UP from 7383 V 12,842 last week & 14,290 2 wks ago - second biggest rise today

EAST on 8336 - UP from 7174 V 10,118 last week & 15,671 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 7752 - UP from 7298 V 17,202 last week & 14,864 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 6502 - UP from 5739 V 7939 last week & 8365 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 6066 - UP from 5459 V 9322 last week & 13,532 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 4397 - UP from 4253 V 8200 last week & 7311 2 wks ago
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


The numbers are up day to day today everywhere - just as it is spread over the UK quite evenly so too in GM. But there are still big drops everywhere week to week. Whic matters more.

Over the next two days these big falls will disappear as it is much harder to sustain large drops from 300 than it was from 900 or 1000 - as you have far less to fall than many boroughs have just been doing week to week by drops of 400 or 500 daily over recent days to get back down to 300. From which 300 is the most you CAN ever fall, of course.

So a more normal track is likely from here. After yesterdays multiple sub 100 Pop Scores nobody was sub 100 today but Stockport who were one of only three not to do so then made up today and matched Zoe's predictions of how well it should be doing by having the best day - up the least and having the joint lowest Pop Score today.


TOTAL 3345 - Up by 601 from 2744 yesterday

North West 9433 - Up by 2107 from 7326 yesterday

GM 35.5% of NW - below average which is good (it was 37.5% yesterday and even better today)

GM is down from 8205 last week by 4860 - much the same as yesterday.

North West is down from 21,484 by 12,051 - again much the same as yesterday.

GM was 40.3% of NW - so a little up today from 38.2% and 37.5%in last two days. But still below par.



MANCHESTER 591 - UP 14 on day & DOWN 888 on week - Pop Score 107 - enough to avoid the 27K club until tomorrow (POP 26,983)

BOLTON 399- UP 149 on day & DOWN 621 on week - enough to keep on as the only occupant of the 25K club for aother 2 or 3 days. Pop Score 139* (POP 25,698) * Highest Pop Score today BUT Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - But loses 35 back to Stockport and now 560 ahead.

WIGAN 366 - UP 103 on day & DOWN 658 on week Pop Score 110. (POP 27,293)

TRAFFORD 347 - UP 119 on day & DOWN 317 on week. Pop Score of 112 to enter the 27K club. (POP 27,007)

STOCKPORT 307 - UP 9 on day & DOWN 493 on week. Pop Score 104*. Gained double what it lost yeserday back on Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic (POP 26,258) * Joint lowest Pop Score in GM today

TAMESIDE 300 - UP 24 on day & DOWN 399 on week. Pop Score 132 (POP 27,123)

SALFORD 272 - UP 25 on day & DOWN 494 on week - Pop Score 104 - still only one in the 28K club (POP 28,450) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic* But joint lowest Pop Score in GM today

BURY 258 - UP 72 on day & DOWN 254 on week. Pop Score 136 * (POP 26,787) * Highest Pop Score in GM today

ROCHDALE 255 - UP 36 on day & DOWN 466 on week. Pop Score 115 (POP 27,262)

OLDHAM 250 - UP 50 on day & DOWN 253 on week. Pop Score 106 POP 26,505)
 
GREATER MANCHESTER POP SCORES

Decided to do a Pop Score table for first time in a week as there has been a VERY dramatic change over that time. And today was the day the first GM borough went back into three figures - which when several were nearer 3000 than 2000 let alone 1000 as 2022 dawned seemed unlikely to happen any time soon.

Even more unlikely was who would become the first back into three figures. And who is right behind them and who now would be the highest.

But probably we should not be as this happens a lot. And Trafford was the first to demonstrate that principle pre Omicron.

As for last - well they are nonetheless right now the lowest Pop Scorer in GM over 500 lower than the one who is top - who was the lowest on this measure 2 weeks ago! There is a logic to all this. THe faster you rise, the quicker you fall. It will even out in comig days.

And as you will see literally everyone has fallen far and fast and will be in three figures within days if this continues.


BOROUGH / WEEKLY POP SCORE (CASES PER 100K POPulation) /UP OR DOWN BY IN DAY / SCORE LAST WEEK / SCORE 4 WEEKS AGO / TOP POINT OF THE HIGH NUMBERS AND WHEN

Remember in this table the LOWER the score the better you are doing



STOCKPORT 993 DOWN 168 / 2098 / 959 - TOP 2440 - 13 days ago.

TRAFFORD 1060 DOWN 161 / 1940 / 1147 - TOP 2249 - 13 days ago

OLDHAM 1062 / DOWN 212 / 2113 / 606 - TOP 2256 - 13 days ago

BURY 1077 DOWN 132 / 2187 / 971 - TOP 2198 - 13 days ago

WIGAN 1094 / DOWN 199 / 2640 / 618 - TOP 2640 - 7 days ago

MANCHESTER 1115 / DOWN 159 / 1891 / 1029 - TOP 2057 - 13 days ago

SALFORD 1172 / DOWN 187 / 2408 / 1022 - TOP 2516 - 13 days ago

ROCHDALE 1174 / DOWN 215 / 2326 /665 - TOP 2326 - 7 days ago

TAMESIDE 1205 / DOWN 176 / 2413 /768 - TOP 2413 - 7 days ago

BOLTON 1277 / DOWN 215 / 2141 / 628 - TOP 2190 - 10 days ago
 
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Today's ZOE app graph of the falling wave. Some slight hints it might be falling less steeply.But is still falling.

As of today predicted new cases down to 149.178 - from 152,456 yesterday & 155,752 - so the falls here are now more modest than they were. Last Tuesday the number was 198,296.

Ongoing symptomatic cases - which the graph below plots from late last Summer to today are falling daily and have been since they peaked on JAN 11 - a week ago - on 2,751,236.

Today they are 2,526,325 - a fall of 224,911 in the past seven days.

The fall from yesterday is today 48,040 - it was 45,716 the day before. The increase seems to be slowing.


1642511023940.png
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL DATA

The falls in each region are mostly still happenimg but some rather slowly. Here are the 12 UK regions and their track

1: NORTH EAST stays top but is falling - FROM 3427 / 4198 TO 3389 / 4169

2 NORTH WEST stays second but falling more - FROM 2774 / 3172 TO 2652 / 3050

3: YORKSHIRE third and falling well too - FROM 2649 /3094 TO 2524 / 2968

4: LONDON fourth and also still falling but more slowly - FROM 2397 / 2686 TO 2329 / 2620


Of the rest West MIdlands is falling very slowly on 2228 / 2645, as is East Midlands on 1821 / 2207 and both East just edged down very slightly on 1764 / 2037 and South East almost flat on 1774 / 1974.

The three home nations are:- Northern Ireland falling well on 1551 / 2828, Wales dropping but more slowly on 1585 / 2016 and Scotland - down a little more than these two on 1522 / 1883.

The best England region is South West but they are actually UP today a small amount on 1577 / 1839
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA

For comparison with below the highest in the UK right now in the top infected region (North East) remains Sunderland - though down very slightly today to 85,100

Most places in the North West are going down - but slowly - and plenty still remain high.

The area around Preston and the Ribble Valley are the hot spot - both Chorley & South Ribble immediately north of the areas in GM such as Wigan and Bolton are over 71K today still.

West Lancashire - between Merseyside & Wigan also on 61,668 and only very slowly falling over past few days.

On Merseyside numbers are falling more - Liverpool down around 10K in past few days to 65,649. St Helens from over 60K to 48,650 and Warrington on 33,094 & Wirral on 38,423 are fairly flat but lower than the above.

Cheshire West & Chester is falling well and now below 40K for first time in a week on 38,668 BUT Cheshire East (sorry Andyhinch) is going the other way and is still rising slowly but steadily as it has been for weeks - on 46,993

AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - HERE ARE THE TEN BOROUGHS IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST

1 OLDHAM 22,970 - down 1500 and fallen 20K in ten days - best falls in GM

2 STOCKPORT 41,725 - down 3K and been falling steadily for 5 days now

3 TRAFFORD 48,168 - been flat around here for past week

4 BOLTON 56,127 - down 2K and falling for 2 or 3 days now

5 BURY 58,722 - up 6 K and risen 30K in 10 days - biggest riser at the moment

6 ROCHDALE 61,725 - down 1000 - looks to have started to fall after recent sharp rises

7 WIGAN 62,478 - up 2K - risen 25 K in a week

8 SALFORD 62,493 - - down 5K - after being fla aroud 75 K 5 days ago at highest ever in GM

9 MANCHESTER 62,717 - down 300 - after rising 15K in previois 10 days

10 TAMESIDE 74,011 - up 7K and risem 25K in 10 days - close to beating Salford's highest ever score in GM and seems to have the most problems right now. Not sure why.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

31 deaths - was 16 last week - as in England these are rising as the legacy of the big cases arrives but will fall in a week or two as cases have now fallen dramatcally and that fall will then impact the death numbers positively after the built in gap

7752 cases - was 10,392 last week - as everywhere the week to week fall will now slow as it is much easier to fall big from big numbers so that was inevitable

20.9% positivity - was 27.7% last week - showing the fall is real and not just fewer tests


1546 patients - down 11 on yesterday - was 1479 last week - hints this might be levelling off

42 ventilated icu - was 43 yesterday & 54 last week - as in England these are THE most encouraging numbers of all right now.Far fewer ventilated patients from last time this many patients were in hospital - when it was nearly triple then on ventilators with 113.
 
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