COVID Data Thread

WALES DATA

21 deaths - was 11 last week

2768 cases - was 3197 last week

811 patients - was 850 day before & 860 last week

25 ventilated - was 26 yesterday & 31 last week


As everywhere deaths rising but are the legacy of the high cases via Omicron from a week or two ago, It will fall next week onward now that these cases are much lower.

And as you see hospital numbers are falling as elsewhere and which is the intermediary point between cases falling and the resulting deaths falling.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

27 deaths - was 26 last week

(3694 only PCR or 4436 only LFD cases or plus or minus 132 with both or....???) - aka - whatever it turns out to be when Gov UK add it up which based on yesterday will be different from any combination of those three numbers - But was 5186 last week on the pre Mensa required to work it out number

15.8% positivity

1514 patients - was 1571 yesterday & 1560 last week - so this is turning around now too

43 ventilated icu - was 44 yesterday & 58 last week - even more so here wuth ventilated beds much as in England
 
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Public Health Scotland has 8262 Total so it looks like plus 132 - though what that will translate as in the UK figures is anyone's guess.

As I understand it England and Northern Ireland include Lateral Flow Test positives in their results whilst Scotland and Wales report PCR and LFT results separately, at least that seemed to be the case last week.
https://fullfact.org/health/lateral-flow-tests-covid-counting/
 
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Cassandra said:
Public Health Scotland has 8262 Total so it looks like plus 132 - though what that will translate as in the UK figures is anyone's guess.
Click to expand...

According to Twitter the number is 4743 - no clue where that comes from (unless they are just taking the total positive cases yesterday v today perhaps? - but they also claim the 'real' number last week for comparison was 8203 - when that WAS the number Scotland posted as the total total last week though the GOV UK number for that day remains listed as the 5186 I cited.

Not the foggiest why they are making this so complicated and now all but meaningless if you have multiple versions of what the real number is for today depending on whether you read the Scottish or English or whatever the other calculation for the day is as 4743 is not any combination of the three numbers cited by the Scottish report so comes from somewhere else I assume.

Why do they not just post that and say so? And add the others if they wish.
 
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TODAY'S NORTHERN IRELAND DAGRAM OF AGE RANGES TESTING POSITIVE - BACK TO LOOKING LIKE A TREE AGAIN AS THE UNDER 20s KEEP RISING AND THE UPPER AGES ARE FLAT (IN FACT DOWN SLIGHTLY AGAIN OVER 60 DAY TO DAY DESPITE CASES UP OVERALL BY 900)

AGE RANGE NUMBERS:

0 - 19 (11,172)

20 - 39 (7732)

40 - 59 (6076)

60 - 79 (1448)

80 PLUS (363)

1642693254098.png
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

2 deaths - was 14 last week

3879 cases was 2980 last week - And you can see which age group that 900 extra comes from above.

26,795 weekly cases - was 25,823 yesterday & 23,848 last week

218 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 220 YESTERDAY & 211 LAST WEEK

402 patients - was 412 yesterday & 424 last week

21 ventilated - was 20 yesterday & 22 last week
 
My sister-in-law, who reads the Guardian and so knows everything about everything, told me last week that the reason cases were falling was because people with positive LFT were no longer having PCR tests and so there would be less positive PCR results. At that point I had read that Public Health Scotland (though not I think then the Scottish Government site) were publishing a breakdown of positive LFT and PCR tests and passed on this information. She explained that she knew that lots of people didn't report their lateral flow tests anyhow. I pointed out that if they didn't report their LFT results they were perhaps similarly unlikely to sign up for a PCR test - how stupid am I? Anyhow that's how I came to take an interest in this issue. Normally I don't go near the Government sites relying on healdplace's summaries and comments for the overall position and English detail and Travelling Tabby for my local area Scottish trends.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

218 with 46 North West

Was 194 with 42 NW last week & 177 with 40 NW week before

So edging up but not by a lot now.

The week JAN 09 - JAN 15 at five days is now complete:

142 - 147 - 147 - 134 - 131 - 125 - 157

As you see JAN 15 set a new record high in this wave at 5 days

The weekly total is 983 - the highest since last winter.

Up from 829 last week and 511 and 433 the weeks before.

Will we avoid a 1000 plus number this coming week? It will be close.

JAN 16 is on 142 with a day to go (V last week 133 - became 142)

JAN 17 is on 136 with two days to go (V last week 127 - became 147)

JAN 18 is on 101 with three days to go (V last week 104 - became 147)

So on balance it looks unlikely we will avoid sub 1000 but with luck just might if the numbers do start to fall in next 6 days as I suspect they might

If not this should be the peak of the weeks death numbers
 
330 all settings deaths

Down from 398 last week

England only 280 v 284

(As noted above these are flatenning off this week at the peak)


107,364 cases - was 108,069 yesterday

And 109,133 last week

Looks to have flattened right off. But is still just down


England only 95,974

Was 96, 545 yesterday & 97,770 last week

So JUST managed a fall on both.
 
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4743 - wherever it comes from - IS the number today Gov UK records for Scotland.

But 5156 remains as the comparison total last week.

So however they got to this looks like cases are flat pretty everywhere right now.

I assume this is being caused by the school testing numbers going up compensating for the cases in the older ages still seemingly slowly falling.
 
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Since jan 11th nobody needs to get a pcr test after a positive lat flow and there was a rush to get tested before the holidays which put the numbers up ,people dont bother reporting their lat flow results in any great number so we are not getting an accurate pic of tests , why bother making a judgement so closely now ?
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL FULL NUMBERS TODAY

Good news pretty much all round



ADMISSIONS (Tuesday) (all other data is from today)


1794 - was 2127 last week & 2101 Tuesday before


London 301 V 314 V 367

Midlands 304 V 406 V 377

NE & Yorkshire 402 V 401 V 418

AND

NORTH WEST 285 V 401 V 377



PATIENTS

15,302 - down 440 today from 15,742 - Last week was down 165 from 16,881 to 16,716

Week to week fall 1414 - Previous week was rise of 658 from 16,058 TO 16,716

Daily trend last 4 days:- UP 249 - DOWN 403 - DOWN 476 - DOWN 440


Regions (daily change and V last week): - East down 40 to 1323 V 1470, London down 120 to 3059 V 3662, Midlands down 144 to 2907 V 3074, NE & Yorkshire down 3 to 2796 V 2835, South East down 44 to 1475 V 1623, South West UP 4 to 886 V 908

AND NORTH WEST down 93 to 2856 V 3144


Ventilators

573 - down 13 from 586

(daily change and V last week)

A week to week fall of 93 from 666 to 573

Last week was down by 96 from 762 to 666

Regions (daily change and V last week): - East down 6 to 50 V 71, London down 6 to 191 V 217, Midlands UP 3 to 103 V 101, NE & Yorkshire down 6 to 88 V 85 , South East down 2 to 55 V 70, South West down 1 to 14 V 33

AND NORTH WEST UP 5 to 72 V 89 - not such a good day here for the NW though these big changes tend to happen from time to time and still a big weekly fall.
 

Tom Clarke, science editor:​

There has definitely been a drop off in the number of COVID tests being done. This is partly because the system was struggling to cope with the demand for PCR tests in the run up to Christmas, and then because of the change to the requirement for testing brought in to try and manage that demand. We also know that not everybody who tests positive with a lateral flow test will upload that result to the NHS test and trace system.

So right now, we can't simply rely on the daily case numbers as a good indication of whether the outbreak is still growing or not. Nor is it a brilliant reflection of how many cases there actually are



news.sky.com

Are daily cases now meaningless? Is media ignoring vaccine side effects? Why do we have to stick swab up nose? Your questions answered

Sky News has run a series of live Q&As on COVID and the ending of restrictions. Science editor Tom Clarke answered your questions right here in a live online Q&A this afternoon - and an expert panel tackled more of your questions on Sky News.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

​

Regular session by sky , they have reported well and accurately from the start
 
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ZOE NUMBERS TODAY

Predicted new cases down to 142,328 FROM 144,527 ,149.178 & 152,456 day before - so the fall today is the lowest yet matching the slow down in the Gov UK numbers. Last week the number was 168,710.

Ongoing symptomatic cases - are falling daily and have been since they peaked on JAN 11 on 2,750,850.

Today they are 2,414,214 down from 2,466,158 AND 2,726, 492 last week - a fall of 312,279 in the past seven days. UP by 49K on yesterday

The fall from yesterday is today 51,944 - it was 53,262 the day before.

The numbers above do suggest the falls are starting to slow - again matching the Gov UK numbers.
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL DATA

The falls in each region are mostly still happening but some are starting to rise - notably London and South East - both back up today after 2 or 3 weeks of falling.

Here are the main UK regions and their track

1: NORTH EAST stays top - FROM 3181 / 3953 TO 2962 / 3721 - biggest fall again today

2 YORKSHIRE rises above NW into second- FROM 2379 / 2818 TO 2344 / 2789 - a fall but less than NW

3 NORTH WEST falls to third- FROM 2462 / 2854 TO 2306 / 2693 - biggest fall

4: LONDON fourth but rises quite a bit today after weeks of falling - FROM 2257 /2549 TO 2330 / 2633 - could well rise back over the NW tomorrow as they are so close now.

Scotland is best in UK - down FROM 1459 / 1816 TO 1338 / 1686

Wales has also become the second best in UK on 1415 / 1840

The best England region is South West but they are actually UP today FROM 1526 / 1789 TO 1542 / 1811

As well as London and South West, South East is also back up today FROM 1769 / 1972 TO 1804 / 2013
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA

The now SECOND highest in the UK - Sunderland - falls today big by 7K to 76,456


The area around Preston and the Ribble Valley is now THE hot spot - Chorley just north of the areas in GM such as Wigan and Bolton are now SECOND highest in UK up 3K on 78,679 The areas around it such as Rbble are not far under 70K.

You will see below who is higher than here!

West Lancashire - between Merseyside & Wigan falls 3K again to 55,231.

On Merseyside numbers are falling well too - Liverpool down around 3K to 59,548. St Helens by 2k to 44,377 and Warrington on 32,791 & Wirral on 38,049 are fairly flat but lower than the above.

Cheshire West & Chester is still falling well and now on 35,095 BUT Cheshire East (sorry Andyhinch) is going the other way and is still rising bery slowly but steadily as it has been for weeks - on 48,626


AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - HERE ARE THE TEN BOROUGHS IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST


1 OLDHAM 20,911 - down 1500 - could be first back in the teenies tomorrow

2 STOCKPORT 37,878 - down 2K again and whilst high by its numbers has been falling steadily for over a week now

3 TRAFFORD 47,521 - been very flat around here but fell 500 today

4 BOLTON 48,887 - down 4K and falling strongly now

5 SALFORD - 53,368 - down 4.5 K - falling fast after being 75 K a week ago

6 MANCHESTER 58 381 - down 2K and finally back under 60K

7 ROCHDALE 59,402 - down 2k and after having flattened is now dropping

8 BURY 70,358 - up 5 K and doubled in a week - biggest riser at the moment

9 WIGAN 71,400 - up 1K - risen 26 K in a week

10 TAMESIDE 78,927 - up 4K and risen 28K in 10 days - BROKE THE RECORD SET RECENTLY BY SALFORD OF THE HIGHEST EVER SCORE IN GREATER MANCHESTER

RIGHT NOW THIS IS THE HIGHEST I CAN FIND IN THE UK TOO
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

London and Yorkshire up today others down again by modest numbers.



SOUTH EAST on 16,076 - DOWN from 16,326 V 13,752 last week & 19,946 2 wks ago

LONDON on 14,774 - UP from 13,328 V 13,938 last week & 21,854 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 11,032 - DOWN from 11,070 V 10,593 last week & 18,305 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 10,875 - DOWN from 11,210 V 12,770 last week & 25,971 2 wks ago



EAST on 10,770 - DOWN from 11,126 V 9229 last week & 14,236 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 9751 - UP from 9294 V 10,032 last week & 15,699 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 8425 - DOWN from 9066 V 7198 last week & 12,784 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 7542 - DOWN from 8045 V 8218 last week & 12,308 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 5237 - DOWN from 5903 V 7450 last week & 9997 2 wks ago
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


The numbers are down day to day but have been pretty flat over the last 3 days.

The big falls will have now disappeared - as it is harder to get large drops from low numbers than from the large ones that were.

So a more normal track is inevitable and easy to see as a reversal - which it may not be just a slowing of the rapid drops.

Stockport after the best day three days running had to settle for second best today.

Zoe has been tracking the progress of GM boroughs pretty well lately V the real data daily.


TOTAL CASES 3994 - Down by 149 from 4143 yesterday

North West 10,875 - Down by 335 from 11,210 yesterday

GM 36.7% of NW - below average but OK (it has been almost the same % for last few days)

GM is down from 4746 last week by 752

North West is down from 12,770 by 1895.

This is 39.7% of the fall in GM - about right.




MANCHESTER 818 - UP 85 on day & DOWN 99 on week - Pop Score 148 (POP 27,381)

WIGAN 465 - UP 12 on day & DOWN 100 on week Pop Score 140. (POP 27,701)

TAMESIDE 391 - DOWN 28 on day & DOWN 33 on week. Pop Score 173* (POP 27,743) * Highest Pop Score in GM today

SALFORD 377 - DOWN 20 on day & DOWN 81 on week - Pop Score 144 - could well be first GM borough into the 29K club tomorrow (POP 28,887) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.

ROCHDALE 364 - UP 82 on day & DOWN 72 on week. Pop Score 162 (POP 27,674)

BOLTON 362 - DOWN 120 on day & DOWN 93 on week - finally enters the 26K club. Pop Score 126 (POP 26,121) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - but loses a few more back to Stockport as it has now daily for a week cutting the lead in half and now just 490 ahead.

STOCKPORT 357 - UP 1 on day & DOWN 76 on week. Pop Score 121. Gained just 5 back on Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic and it will be much harder to eat into that big lead from here on as Bolton is now falling too (POP 26,611)

TRAFFORD 351 - DOWN 34 on day & UP 11 on week. Pop Score of 147. (POP 27,442)

OLDHAM 263 - DOWN 65 on day & DOWN 127 on week. Pop Score 111* - may well make the 27K club tomorrow but cut the gap to Stockport to 282 POP 26,893) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today

BURY 246 - DOWN 62 on day & DOWN 82 on week. Pop Score 129 . (POP 27,225)
 
WALES DATA

11 deaths - was 4 last week

- like elsewhere these ARE rising but as the inevitable legacy lag from the big cases recently - which as these are falling will see falls in deaths in the next week or so too.

2427 cases - was 2864 last week

- as everywhwere cases ARE still falling but much more slowly than were as we were at very high levels and once you are not at these same high numbers there are proprtionately fewer numbers to fall. 10% of 10,000 is 1000 - 10% of 1000 is 100 - 100 looks a lot less than 1000 but in this context is not - hence the need for seeing that context

779 patients - was 811 yesterday & 858 last week

25 ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 34 last week

- AND these show just as elsewhere the REALLY key numbers - patients and ventilated patients are going down supporting what I say above about the track

It starts with cases - then a few days later translates into patient numbers and then a week or so on translates into deaths - up or down whichever the trajectory AND that path is clearly at the moment down.
 
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1642769196607.pngTODAYS ZOE APP GRAPH OF ONGOING INFECTIONS. STILL FALLING AS YOU CAN SEE BUT THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN WHAT IS HAPPENING - SEE POSTS BELOW
 
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