Democrat US Presidential Nominations

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FogBlueInSanFran said:
Look, I said it was a theory, and I desperately wanted it to be right because it’s how I feel. It might still be wrong. But even in strange places, blue suburbanites are rising up to vote for Biden. And it isn’t because of Biden. It’s because the average middle class American is sick to fucking death of extremist populism. And Biden’s the alternative to Trump and Sanders, both of whom are extremist populists. And not one fuck is given whether they really are or aren’t (hint: they are). So spare me the hair-splitting. They’re perceived as such by Jane and Bob Average. They aren’t going to let complacency create chaos like they did in 16. They don’t have to vote for the unlikeable Hillary. They can pull the lever for innocuous Joe and go back to their normal lives and perhaps heal from the attendant rabble-rousing bullshit that has sapped their time, strength and mental energy, and fractured families, friendships and neighborhoods. Some of you may not like it, but I think that’s what we’re seeing. For the love of God, I hope I’m right and may it continue through November.

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Anyone that keeps saying that Biden winning the nomination is bad and that he won’t beat Trump is not looming at the voter turnout. That alone shows why Biden is the best bet.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Allegedly he's going to be in the next debate (at least as of a few hours ago) but I think you may be right.
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If he actually cares about the Dems winning back the Presidency and ousting Trump, he would pull out, unify the party and not give the GoP viral videos to use in the GE.
 
SWP's back said:
If he actually cares about the Dems winning back the Presidency and ousting Trump, he would pull out, unify the party and not give the GoP viral videos to use in the GE.
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The fact you already know a debate will lead to viral videos of Biden looking like a brain trauma victim says it all.
 
domalino said:
The fact you already know a debate will lead to viral videos of Biden looking like a brain trauma victim says it all.
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Whoever was the candidate, whatever they said, would be edited that way anyway.

I presume you think Bernie would be the one to defeat Trump?
 
SWP's back said:
Whoever was the candidate, whatever they said, would be edited that way anyway.

I presume you think Bernie would be the one to defeat Trump?
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No, Bernie's youth vote abandoned him. Warren was probably their only candidate and she fell into the gap between Bernie's would be revolutionaries and Biden's establishment and money.

Biden is going to be ripped apart by Trump's campaign for all of this shit




And then he's going to lose because he only won with old voters...and nationwide old voters are already Trump fans.

 
domalino said:
It's amazing watching people shoot themselves in the foot so clearly.
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Interesting - who do you think was better placed to beat Trump?

mat said:
“The American people want normality over social democracy”

A batshit statement from Katie Hunt on NBC news.
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For your average American 'Social Democracy' is a tough sell and a break from normality.

FogBlueInSanFran said:
Look, I said it was a theory, and I desperately wanted it to be right because it’s how I feel. It might still be wrong. But even in strange places, blue suburbanites are rising up to vote for Biden. And it isn’t because of Biden. It’s because the average middle class American is sick to fucking death of extremist populism. And Biden’s the alternative to Trump and Sanders, both of whom are extremist populists. And not one fuck is given whether they really are or aren’t (hint: they are). So spare me the hair-splitting. They’re perceived as such by Jane and Bob Average. They aren’t going to let complacency create chaos like they did in 16. They don’t have to vote for the unlikeable Hillary. They can pull the lever for innocuous Joe and go back to their normal lives and perhaps heal from the attendant rabble-rousing bullshit that has sapped their time, strength and mental energy, and fractured families, friendships and neighborhoods. Some of you may not like it, but I think that’s what we’re seeing. For the love of God, I hope I’m right and may it continue through November.

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Agreed - the turnout numbers are important here and they show a real determination to get rid of Trump. It was a lack of drive to vote for Hilary that led to Trump, he will hold his voters at best.
 
domalino said:
No, Bernie's youth vote abandoned him. Warren was probably their only candidate and she fell into the gap between Bernie's would be revolutionaries and Biden's establishment and money.

Biden is going to be ripped apart by Trump's campaign for all of this shit




And then he's going to lose because he only won with old voters...and nationwide old voters are already Trump fans.

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Haha stroll on. Have you seen the turn out?

He’ll walk it.
 
I am likely crazy but hear me out. Biden was middling for the most part when he was on top of his game. He has lost a step, or six, since then. He appears to be showing early signs of alzheimers.

We may see at some point around the convention Joe, or a representative of his, take to the microphone and say while he is honoured to be nominated he can't accept it for reasons.

At that point, the truly favored candidate whether it be K. Harris or even Tatiana Millouse von Pantsuit come parachuting in to "save" the party instead if giving the nomination to the guy that got the second most delegates in the primary

You can't say Hillary doesn't have a scenario like this in the back of her mind.
 
SWP's back said:
Haha stroll on. Have you seen the turn out?

He’ll walk it.
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I don’t know that he’ll walk it but I simply can’t see blues being complacent this time around. The young aren’t complacent — they’re lazy, and they don’t like either choice anyhow, so they’ll stay home as usual. The election is a referendum on Trump if Biden wins the nomination and assuming he doesn’t pick a VP the Trump campaign can target. All this talk of “they’ll go after Biden for X” is silly if the economy flips over and the market does too because Trump has stood on those and the half-assed wall as his accomplishments. If there’s no huge glamorous success story to point to, Biden can paint Trump as a failure as President and be right. And he can point to his own tenure as VP for a President who saw the economy pulled out of the deepest recession since the Depression as the contrast. Unless Trump has new dirt on Biden which resonates in a cacophonous and more vigilant world, and Biden fucks up the swing states as Hillary did, I think Trump will have it much harder this go around than last — when he lost the general by 3mm votes anyhow.
 
domalino said:
No, Bernie's youth vote abandoned him. Warren was probably their only candidate and she fell into the gap between Bernie's would be revolutionaries and Biden's establishment and money.

Biden is going to be ripped apart by Trump's campaign for all of this shit




And then he's going to lose because he only won with old voters...and nationwide old voters are already Trump fans.

Click to expand...

Biden isn't a great candidate, and he doesn't excite me or anything like that, but he's being being underrated by much of the conventional wisdom online. His age aside (and it's a big aside), he's exactly the type of standard, down the middle, Democrat that generally wins elections. This is a party that, keep in mind, only 46% of members self-identify as even being liberal (source). People are voting pragmatically and the overriding issue this election is simply removing Trump.

Bernie's entire theory of the case is being wrecked by shitty turnout anyway. His numbers across almost every type of voter, with the exception of Latinos, is flat to down since 2016, including with young voters, and theres not much evidence to suggest he could actually turn it around in the general as he's losing to Biden in the primary.

It's exactly the same situation as in the 2018 midterms. The left wing of the party absolutely insisted Democrats were making a catastrophic error by nominating moderates to contest swing districts as opposed to running an inspiring progressive agenda which could mobilize enough voters to win. As it turns out, nominating boring candidates actually was a pretty good strategy. Democrats flipped 40 seats, and moderates somehow accounted for 100 percent of the party’s House gains. Not a single progressive candidate actually won a Trump district. Our Revolution, Bernie's PAC which backed progressive candidates, went 0–22, and Justice Democrats and Brand New Congress, other progressive PACs, went went 0–16 and 0–6 respectively.
 
cjn said:
Biden isn't a great candidate, and he doesn't excite me or anything like that, but he's being being underrated by much of the conventional wisdom online. His age aside (and it's a big aside), he's exactly the type of standard, down the middle, Democrat that generally wins elections. This is a party that, keep in mind, only 46% of members self-identify as even being liberal (source). People are voting pragmatically and the overriding issue this election is simply removing Trump.

Bernie's entire theory of the case is being wrecked by shitty turnout anyway. His numbers across almost every type of voter, with the exception of Latinos, is flat to down since 2016, including with young voters, and theres not much evidence to suggest he could actually turn it around in the general as he's losing to Biden in the primary.

It's exactly the same situation as in the 2018 midterms. The left wing of the party absolutely insisted Democrats were making a catastrophic error by nominating moderates to contest swing districts as opposed to running an inspiring progressive agenda which could mobilize enough voters to win. As it turns out, nominating boring candidates actually was a pretty good strategy. Democrats flipped 40 seats, and moderates somehow accounted for 100 percent of the party’s House gains. Not a single progressive candidate actually won a Trump district. Our Revolution, Bernie's PAC which backed progressive candidates, went 0–22, and Justice Democrats and Brand New Congress, other progressive PACs, went went 0–16 and 0–6 respectively.
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Great post with great data.
 
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