Billy, explain to me the following:
The heatmaps of the City/Bayern game show that we had most of our limited possession within our own half. UEFA kindly listed us as playing 4-2-3-1, and Bayern 4-1-4-1. Sadly the system is not as good on the UEFA site as it used to be. I suggest you look at the live map and see the startling difference between the two teams:
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.uefa.com/match-centre/cup=1/season=2014/day=2/session=2/match=2011781/popout/pitchview.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.uefa.com/match-centre/cup=1/ ... hview.html</a>
I pointed out last season where Mancini's failings were. Look here and see just how badly we were dominated in key events:
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2014/matches/round=2000479/match=2011781/postmatch/statistics/index.html#1/2014/2000479/2011781/pitch-view/influence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague ... /influence</a>
Now look at the formation patterns:
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2014/matches/round=2000479/match=2011781/postmatch/statistics/index.html#1/2014/2000479/2011781/pitch-view/team-shape/0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague ... am-shape/0</a>
In the first 15 minutes we clearly play 2 up top. And they're both on top of each other. We play essentially 4-1-3-2 with Fernandinho holding but really it's a triangular 3 with Nasri and Yaya with Navas doing his own thing on the right. We are lobsided to the right hand side of the pitch, with a tiny focal point. Bayern have a much more balanced shape. Lahm is essentially playing as a 3rd CB, they have the 2 wing backs and it allows Kroos and Schweinsteiger to get up towards the front 3. It becomes more of a front 5 because they're on the front foot and are keeping possession. They have close links to a team mate, especially down the left so they can interchange and pass quickly. Their passing arrows are forwards, ours are backwards because we couldn't keep the ball.
15-30 becomes more telling. City's shape has gone. Navas has become more isolated, Nasri, Yaya and Fern are close together but have drifted slightly left and Fern is directly behind Yaya. Aguero and Dzeko are still right next to each other. The back 4 is stretched. Bayern take full advantage. They move their back 4 over to the right, why? because that is where they are going to pounce and get the ball back off Nasri and Yaya. Dante always sits back and covers. They then have 2 batches of 3 in their front 6, why? so a player always has a teammate to pass to. You can also notice that if you put the two formations on top of each other then the Bayern trios are right in the 2 gaping holes City leave in midfield/defence. Between Nasri and Clichy and huge channel between the midfield trio and Navas and Micah. It is no surprise that Pep was up guiding his team through for large periods, his team have reacted and exploited the space they've created in City's ranks.
30-45 Bayern keep up that system, and there are still gaps but they are smaller and that's because the back 4 of City has finally shuffled closer together. It's a temporary fix and leads to a lull of some sorts in the attacking momentum bar for this period. Navas is still isolated and Aguero and Dzeko have been holding hands the entire half, anyone seeing this would obviously change?
45-60 and the killer phase. Bayern keep the shape but Kroos moves slightly to link the front 6 together more. Look how high up their midfielders are. They are dominant. City's back 4 stretches again, Nasri becomes more isolated as Yaya drifts back on top on Fern and Navas is still all on his own. Aguero and Dzeko still hold hands as Bayern kill the game.
60-75, for the first time in an hour that Bayern 6 splits and Ribery becomes a little isolated. Kroos has moved over further to the right to link with the right hand side trio. City suffer for the first 10 minutes but then make changes that alleviates some pressure. Milner sticks to the left finally bringing balance to Navas on the right. Silva slots in higher up the pitch and ends Aguero's bonding sessions with his strike partners. Yaya sits on Fern.
75-90, City's best spell. The tactical changes have worked as there is only Negredo up front and Silva has the team slightly higher up the pitch showing we have more of the ball. There are still too many spaces but it's an improvement, Navas finally has someone to pass to. Bayern are shutting up shop. Gotze goes up top more with Muller meaning there is now space for Micah and Navas to get forward at Alaba and exploit Dante. That nice defensive shape of Bayern is distorted slightly as Kirchoff comes on and confuses the shape with Lahm, they end up on top of each other. Whereas Schweinsteiger had kept forward the changes now allowed City out and onto the front foot, Yaya could move forward as 3 attacking players and in particular 1 attacking midfielder and 1 key wide man had come off. City were relieved of the Bayern screw and that's a big reason as to why we had a much better last quarter.
Sadly Billy the Malaga maps for last season are no longer on the UEFA website, but it's clear from the line-ups that they would at most have put Baptista up front on his own. He was braver in the home leg, playing Saviola as well, but Saviola hasn't been an out and out striker in a long time. On wednesday however there were clear errors tactically that weren't resolved for 70 minutes, leaving Bayern to work it out within 10 and dominate it for an hour.
Explain to me how Guardiola noticed what was wrong and Pellegrini didn't.
