Do you really believe the league is over...?

[mekonmcfc]

So look at it like this.

If the Rags win out (won't happen) they can get to 89 points. If Liverpool wins out, they get to 87. We sit at 72 right now. So the current magic number is 18 on the rags and 16 on the victims. Every win/draw by us lowers the number and every draw/loss by them lowers the number.

The math exists that we don't win it, but it would be beyond comprehension. We've dropped 9 points in 27 matches. We only need 18 out of 33 remaining points. We would have to not only drop 15 points, but the rags would have to go on a run unlike anything they've done all year. Their longest winning streak for either of those two is 4 matches (once). So if their last 10 follows the previous 28 for them, we can expect them to drop points at least a couple more times this season. So that is 4 minimum. So the magic number goes from 18 to 14. So that even lowers the bar for City to a point that we could still drop as many as 19 more points and still win it. But remember the team has only dropped 9 points. That is 1 point per 3 matches played on average.

its maths in England :) although if we lose it from here i'll be joining you in the US and saying math

 

[TBooksbluearmy]

We still have 11 games to go, when the points gap is bigger than the number of points available, then and only then will it be all over. Don't forget the rags blew an 8pt gap with only 7 games to go, so yes they could still catch us, will they is another matter. need to win the next 2 games against both Arsenal and Chelsea, then if the gap is still 16pts, then it will be very hard to blow that away.

 

[worsleyweb]

Likely end of season points to nearest 10th of a point

City 96.0

Liverpool 78.3

United 78.3

Spurs 76.5

Chelsea 71.2

Arsenal 65.0

Percentage chance of City winning league 99.9

Most likely points total required to win 79

Current points 72

Statistically and on average only 7 more points will do it.

mmmmm.

 

[bellsouth]

I'll go for
City 93
Liv 84
Utd 82

 

[Dax777]

Likely end of season points to nearest 10th of a point

City 96.0

Liverpool 78.3

United 78.3

Spurs 76.5

Chelsea 71.2

Arsenal 65.0

Percentage chance of City winning league 99.9

Most likely points total required to win 79

Current points 72

Statistically and on average only 7 more points will do it.

I'll be shocked if United and Pool fail to amass 80 points.

 

[worsleyweb]

I'll be shocked if United and Pool fail to amass 80 points.

Yes me too. I think one of them will only drop 2 or 3 points to the end of the season. Mid 80s needed to win it in my opinion. Maybe 14 more points? 4 wins 2 draws and 5 defeats.

Just hurry up and win it City!

 

[Cobwebcat]

Yes me too. I think one of them will only drop 2 or 3 points to the end of the season. Mid 80s needed to win it in my opinion. Maybe 14 more points? 4 wins 2 draws and 5 defeats.

Just hurry up and win it City!

I know what you mean but Clubelo are extremely accurate and they are not on their own. Euro Club Index and the bookies have it very similar.

We are pessimistic by nature.

 

[Fallingbostel Blue]

Dippers at Old Trafford will be interesting, can only see Mourinho parking the bus, which will suit us, as both drop two points.

 

[Roachy]

Well if we could win the next 2 games I think that could be it. That's easier said than done though. Thurs will be a real tough game I reckon and a draw won't be bad.

 

[Manchester1894]

If the Arsenal game is postponed, we might have a 10 point lead by Sunday night if we were to lose to Chelsea and United won. Albeit with a game in hand, but you can bet your bottom dollar they'd get excited over that and think that the title is back on. Bless.

Thing is, the postponement would be great. A chance to really rest the squad ahead of the Chelsea match. I don't like the thought of us having to travel on Thursday and play Sunday. Even that is a big ask of our squad.