But with 6 games still to play and an 18 point gap you can't be 100% certain you're going to win it on GD because the whole point is that we'd have lost 6 games and the other team will have won 6 games for it to come down to that. Of course it'd be 99.99% certain we'd still win it but not 100%.
PB The goal difference is not an issue even under your scenario its too large to make a scrap of difference even if we ended up on the same number of points as Manure or Liverpool or Spurs or Chelsea for that matter filling the top two spots in doing so.
We all know that 85 points will win the title this year for sure and certain you would never back against that happening in a month of Sundays and most likely less than 85 points will secure the title in fact the probability of 84 points or less is extremely high but lets say 85 points for arguments sake.
This means 7 points from our last 9 games no matter the outcome of the other games will secure the title.
The question you have to ask is what is the likelihood or us failing to get those 7 points from those last 9 games and if you believe there is a decent chance of that happening then I say back on all the other teams that the maths suggests can still get to 85 points but don't be surprised if that figure shrinks with the passing weeks.
When was the last time Liverpool , Manure, Spurs and Chelsea all won in the same round this season?
Answer once in Round 6.
Will the 4 of them all win on the same day again this season?
Answer highly unlikely but if so most likely only once again?
You only need to do a little rudimentary analysis to conclude that know that if we get 7 points in our last 9 games the title is definitely ours , 6 again yes definitely , 5 again high probability.
Its only when you get to 4 points and less that the odds start adding up.
I don't know why people think Spurs , Liverpool and Manure will go 9-0-0 in their last nine games , none of them will , none of them will go close to that.
Their is more chance we will end up of 85 points or less than the above happening.
Will Manure go 8-1-0 in their last nine games ? Answer No.
Will Manure go 7-2-0 in their last nine games Answer No but if they do they will end up with 85 points.
You can do the same for Liverpool although they are two points worse off than Manure presently and have to win on Saturday to ensure any remote chance of finishing any more than 85 points stays alive.
It doesn't stack up PB that any more than 84 points bu lets place safe 85 points will be required to win the title this season.
If you don't agree then you can make good money at the bookies who will give you great odds that at only one of those sides will achieve 85 points.
I suggest you plonk all four although you might struggle with Chelsea unless they get awarded two bonus points for some reason which would only come at the cost of Manure and Liverpool but bank on them finishing on 80 and us 79.
