Put your glasses on. He spelled it correctly.You spelled “dangerously unhinged” wrong.
Put your glasses on. He spelled it correctly.You spelled “dangerously unhinged” wrong.
In this context, “enthusiasm” correlates fairly strongly with likely turnout based on previous election cycles.
And more than any other for this cycle, turnout is likely to be the most impactful factor on the outcome because of the gender gap in likely voters and voter registration (women outnumber men in both cases, and more broadly as a proportion of population).
Republicans (and definitely MAGA) have held increasingly smaller shares of eligible voters over the last few decades, to the point that election manipulation,extreme gerrymandering, and the electoral college has become vital mechanisms for staying in power (a Republican candidates hasn’t won the popular vote in presidential elections since 2004 with George W. BUSH, and that was the first time since his father won it in 1988).
So if the Democrats can maintain enthusiasm, and thus high turnout, they will likely win more races and hopefully the presidency.
An aggregation from Gallop themselves:Understand all that. Anything on the correlation between "enthusiasm" and actual voting? It just seems so loosely connected to me .... happy to be educated.
You're right -- he did spell "nutty" correctly.Put your glasses on. He spelled it correctly.
He's so manly, the most masculine man. There's nobody more manly than him, many people are saying it
An aggregation from Gallop themselves:
Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout | Gallup Topic
All Gallup articles on Voter Enthusiasm and Turnoutnews.gallup.com
A study that has been cited quite heavily regarding the impacts of voter enthusiasm on election turnout and, ultimately, election results:
A highlight from the study is enthusiasm has a particularly outsized impact on competitive races (which intuitively makes sense).
By the by, one of the most competitive races (and potentially important, due to the likely composition of the next congress), is right here in Maine, where I currently live, in the 2nd Congressional district, where a (very) moderate Democrat is attempting to fight off a heavily-backed (record amounts of money from entities outside of the state have been flooding in) Republican in order to become the new Joe Manchin in the House.
Well then let me post the view of someone who articulates my position better than I can.
The enthusiasm gap is a derivative of the enthusiasm measure, which makes the study relevant.Fair enough, thanks. Will have a better look later but I don't see much to correlate a high percentage of voters saying they are more enthusiastic with an actual increase in voting. That Gallup aggregator does say, however, that early voting is down which isn't what I am hearing on here. And the academic piece, as far as I can make out defines an "enthusiasm gap" and then applies that to voting patterns? Not sure it's relevant specifically to the stats presented
Anyway, it doesn't matter, we will see soon enough. Thanks for making the effort to try to educate me :)
You have to realise that nearly the Majority of Voting Americans think like Dax. 70 - 80 Million, Could be even more too in 5 or 6 days times.Keep posting. I may think a lot of what you say is as nutty as my sister's Christmas cake (long story) but it's always interesting to hear other views.