The enthusiasm gap is a derivative of the enthusiasm measure, which makes the study relevant.
This is abstract for clarity:
What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections to identify how the turnout rate of the party faithful varies across different contexts. I find that the advantaged party can see its registrants turn out by four percentage points more than the disadvantaged party in some elections, and that this effect can be even larger in competitive House districts. I estimate the net benefit to party vote share of the mobilized base, which is around one percentage point statewide, and up to one and one half points in competitive House contests. These results suggest that the partisan characteristics of an election have consequences not just for vote choice, but for the composition of the electorate.
Regarding early voting being down compared to 2020, I am not sure I have seen anyone on here claiming that overall early voting is higher than the previous election. It is not particularly surprising that it would be down, given the 2020 election was occurring during the beginning of the pandemic, so there was a major emphasis on early and mail-in voting because it was seen as unsafe to vote in person. That was actually hugely contentious at the time (and even now, due to Trump’s Big Lie narrative). That is not the case with this cycle (for better or worse, if you ask public health officials), and so more people will likely be planning to vote in person, which will likely see early voting lower this cycle.
People on here
have discussed the current indications that women are voting early at a higher rate than men, as well as Democrats at a higher rate than Republicans (which is, by the way, almost always the case, and is as an element of the “Red Mirage” that plays out on Election Day, which I have posted about). And those gaps will likely benefit the Democrats, for reasons we have already discussed.
