Donald Trump

Still not exactly sure how some of you believe those Americans who are appalled by Trump are just going to sit around and say, “Welp, guess we shouldn’t vote this time” when, since the last election, Trump not only fomented 1/6 and has gone off an even deeper end rhetorically, but the SC interfered with abortion, the economy has surged ahead while inflation is finally starting to recede, the COVID war is basically over, while the Fed gets ready to remove itself from the equation, Biden hasn’t made any real big mistakes other than being old, and the GOP has posted exactly zero major victories in any state where a controversial candidate or issue was at all tested — they’ve lost them all.

But that’s just me.

Trust me, I’m worried. But the data since November 2020 simply doesn’t support the sudden reversal in fortune I am (nor you are) worried about. Other than polls, or bookie odds, and maybe you think that’s all that matters. I don’t personally.
 
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FogBlueInSanFran said:
Still not exactly sure how some of you believe those Americans who are appalled by Trump are just going to sit around and say, “Welp, guess we shouldn’t vote this time” when, since the last election, Trump not only fomented 1/6 and has gone off an even deeper end rhetorically, but the SC interfered with abortion, the economy has surged ahead while inflation is finally starting to recede, the COVID war is basically over, while the Fed gets ready to remove itself from the equation, Biden hasn’t made any real big mistakes other than being old, and the GOP has posted exactly zero major victories in any state where a controversial candidate or issue was at all tested — they’ve lost them all.

But that’s just me.

Trust me, I’m worried. But the data since November 2020 simply doesn’t support the sudden reversal in fortune I am (nor you are) worried about. Other than polls, or bookie odds, and maybe you think that’s all that matters. I don’t personally.
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Some good money for you to make.

£1000 on Biden will make you £2250 profit if he retains the big gig.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Still not exactly sure how some of you believe those Americans who are appalled by Trump are just going to sit around and say, “Welp, guess we shouldn’t vote this time” when, since the last election, Trump not only fomented 1/6 and has gone off an even deeper end rhetorically, but the SC interfered with abortion, the economy has surged ahead while inflation is finally starting to recede, the COVID war is basically over, while the Fed gets ready to remove itself from the equation, Biden hasn’t made any real big mistakes other than being old, and the GOP has posted exactly zero major victories in any state where a controversial candidate or issue was at all tested — they’ve lost them all.

But that’s just me.

Trust me, I’m worried. But the data since November 2020 simply doesn’t support the sudden reversal in fortune I am (nor you are) worried about. Other than polls, or bookie odds, and maybe you think that’s all that matters. I don’t personally.
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I agree with you, despite some polling that is closer than I would like, I just don’t think the “math” maths. More younger voters coming through, more GOP covid deaths, the possibility of Texas being close which would totally eliminate any road to office for Trump, plus I reckon we might see a kind of shy Tory effect with Biden - people don’t want to say out loud they support him but when push comes to shove they’ll vote for him on the quiet.

The problem is, I’m not ‘too’ worried about Biden being able to win under the assumption it’s a fair and straightforward vote. But I can see this one being very chaotic and problematic. Easy to imagine Trumpers with guns intimidating people at voting centres, rioting, some kind of Jan 6th 2.0 except even more desperate… the election itself is less scary than the potential fallout.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Still not exactly sure how some of you believe those Americans who are appalled by Trump are just going to sit around and say, “Welp, guess we shouldn’t vote this time” when, since the last election, Trump not only fomented 1/6 and has gone off an even deeper end rhetorically, but the SC interfered with abortion, the economy has surged ahead while inflation is finally starting to recede, the COVID war is basically over, while the Fed gets ready to remove itself from the equation, Biden hasn’t made any real big mistakes other than being old, and the GOP has posted exactly zero major victories in any state where a controversial candidate or issue was at all tested — they’ve lost them all.

But that’s just me.

Trust me, I’m worried. But the data since November 2020 simply doesn’t support the sudden reversal in fortune I am (nor you are) worried about. Other than polls, or bookie odds, and maybe you think that’s all that matters. I don’t personally.
Click to expand...
Logic tells me Trump will lose. I look at the percentage he secured in 2016 and 2020 and cannot see how he will add incremental voters to that. People who weren’t in the cult back then, are extremely unlikely to have been converted since.

Add into the mix those who did vote for him previously, genuinely appalled at his behaviour after his defeat - and the demographic factors you’ve highlighted and logic points to a fairly comprehensive victory for Biden.

The problems are the consequences are so catastrophic, and the stakes so high, that any prospect of Trump winning causes disproportionate angst amongst all right thinking people.

Add into the mix, something unpredictable and seismic happening to tip the balance towards Trump, and you have a breeding ground for anxiety.

Plus, for me at least, a Biden victory is unlikely to represent a decisive resolution. The circus will continue well after November.
 
In Iowa recently he went after John McCain again. Still bitter about McCain's vote against him in Congress to keep the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") going, Trump mocked McCain's arm injury suffered when he was in Vietnam. This type of personal nastiness is who he is, of course, but what's disturbing is how his base (and base they are) lap it up. Ten or 12 years ago McCain was universally regarded as a hero and a patriot but if you look at readers' comments on the U.S. edition of the Daily Mail (yes, I know) report on Trump's latest speech there are lots of morons there calling McCain a traitor and a coward - it's a measure of how far Trump has debased political discourse and life in general in this land.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Logic tells me Trump will lose. I look at the percentage he secured in 2016 and 2020 and cannot see how he will add incremental voters to that. People who weren’t in the cult back then, are extremely unlikely to have been converted since.

Add into the mix those who did vote for him previously, genuinely appalled at his behaviour after his defeat - and the demographic factors you’ve highlighted and logic points to a fairly comprehensive victory for Biden.

The problems are the consequences are so catastrophic, and the stakes so high, that any prospect of Trump winning causes disproportionate angst amongst all right thinking people.

Add into the mix, something unpredictable and seismic happening to tip the balance towards Trump, and you have a breeding ground for anxiety.

Plus, for me at least, a Biden victory is unlikely to represent a decisive resolution. The circus will continue well after November.
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Agree with that.

Polling has proven very unreliable over the last couple of elections. So polls don't concern me.

One thing that is worrying is that generally Americans are quite clued into the economy and if things are going well then the POTUS gets good favorable ratings. Especially in a first term. But Biden has never had a decent rating. He gets no credit for anything.

We are a long way out and all sorts can happen, things outside of Biden’s control that can play badly for him and he's starting from a pretty low point.

But that said. He was never in great shape last time. You have to assume the biggest driver is hatred of Trump.
 
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