Donald Trump

[SkyBlueFlux]

A question for those much more knowledgeable than me on US politics, what chance percentage wise is there of Trump becoming president again?

I read US politics news literally every day and honestly you could probably justify any guess from 5% to 60%.

If you listen to the latest polling, nearly all of them have Trump a few points ahead. YouGov has him 1 point up this week - so that’s probably 50-60%?

If you listen to some political commentators they will say incumbents advantage will make things swing Biden’s way as the day approaches and Don’t Knows start to make their minds up. So for them maybe it’s 30-40%.

If you want my opinion (not sure why you would), I’d put it around 20%. I’m fairly confident Trump just doesn’t have the votes but that’s based on little more than trying to apply logic to the situation (which doesn’t always work too well in US politics).

A big factor is whether he gets convicted or he’s shown up in one of his many trials. I think there’s a decent chunk of the more moderate population who erroneously think Trump is better for the economy, but when it comes to deciding to put a convicted criminal in office it would be a step too far.

I’m going to suggest his odds are worse than in 2016 for these reasons. But I’m not bold enough to say it’s a lock for Biden because anything can happen between now and then.

 

[Vic]

4 in 10 believe the earth is 6,000 years old, 3 in 10 believe in ghosts and nearly 1/3rd of millennials believe the earth is flat.

Surely not. 1 in 1 of me doesn't believe those stats.

 

[Vic]

Sources.

Earth being 6,000 years old:

40% of Americans Believe in Creationism

Four in 10 Americans have a creationist view of human origins, while 33% believe humans evolved with God's guidance and 22% without it.

news.gallup.com

Millennials thinking Earth isn’t a sphere:

Do People Really Think Earth Might Be Flat?

A poll says lots of Millennials evidently do—and it’s not entirely clear why

blogs.scientificamerican.com

So not what you said.

The first says 40% say man was created (not the earth) in the last 10,000 years.

The second doesn't say that a third of millenials believe the earth is flat.

 

[johnnytapia]

A question for those much more knowledgeable than me on US politics, what chance percentage wise is there of Trump becoming president again?

Check out the %odds for Biden.
Subtract from 100.

 

[johnnytapia]

The honest answer, is that no **** can answer that question.

Even this ****.

And you’re a knowledgeable ****.

 

[johnnytapia]

I read US politics news literally every day and honestly you could probably justify any guess from 5% to 60%.

If you listen to the latest polling, nearly all of them have Trump a few points ahead. YouGov has him 1 point up this week - so that’s probably 50-60%?

If you listen to some political commentators they will say incumbents advantage will make things swing Biden’s way as the day approaches and Don’t Knows start to make their minds up. So for them maybe it’s 30-40%.

If you want my opinion (not sure why you would), I’d put it around 20%. I’m fairly confident Trump just doesn’t have the votes but that’s based on little more than trying to apply logic to the situation (which doesn’t always work too well in US politics).

A big factor is whether he gets convicted or he’s shown up in one of his many trials. I think there’s a decent chunk of the more moderate population who erroneously think Trump is better for the economy, but when it comes to deciding to put a convicted criminal in office it would be a step too far.

I’m going to suggest his odds are worse than in 2016 for these reasons. But I’m not bold enough to say it’s a lock for Biden because anything can happen between now and then.

Clinton was 5/1 ON to beat Trump in 2016.
Biden is currently 9/4 AGAINST.

 

[TinFoilHat]

A question for those much more knowledgeable than me on US politics, what chance percentage wise is there of Trump becoming president again?

The GOP are trying.

They declared war on Biden tonight and fair play to him he's fighting and it's refreshing to see a politician giving shit back to shit questions and answering them.

 

[Keeper!]

The honest answer, is that no **** can answer that question.

Even this ****.

Sadly an awful lot of cunts will be voting for him.

 

[SWP's back]

So not what you said.

The first says 40% say man was created (not the earth) in the last 10,000 years.

The second doesn't say that a third of millenials believe the earth is flat.

Creationists believe it’s around 6,000 years old you fucking pedant.

Age of Our Earth: 6,000 or 4.5 billion years old? – Answers in Genesis: What Young Earth Creationism Gets Wrong

sites.nd.edu

Feel free to reply if you must, I won’t be reading it or anything else you try to bore me with for the foreseeable.

Clinton was 5/1 ON to beat Trump in 2016.
Biden is currently 9/4 AGAINST.

Now do 2020.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Clinton was 5/1 ON to beat Trump in 2016.
Biden is currently 9/4 AGAINST.

There’s a reason I deliberately left bookies out of my list. Totally useless form of prediction.

In 2016 the day before the election the pollsters had Trump at just under a 30% win probability. On August 1st 2016 he was 50:50. This retconning of him having no chance in 2016 isn’t at all accurate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/