I'd have thought so too... but having spent a lot of time in the American South/Midwest (Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, etc.)... I disagree.
People are brought up a certain way, and it's very hard to shake your upbringing. Nearly impossible if you never set foot out of your home town/state - and that accounts for the phenomenon that otherwise decent human beings are 100% behind Trump, IMO.
My Daddy was a Republican, and my Grand Daddy was a Republican, and my Great Grand Daddy was a Republican... and by God! - I'm a Republican too!!!
This - by-the-way - was pretty much why my father was a Republican during almost all of his life. Towards his later years - having first grown up in Missouri in the 1930's and eventually moving to California - he mellowed - and at the time of his death, was far more moderate.
Compare the bookies odds with the polls. If the bookies favour Biden and the polls show Trump ahead, bet on Biden. The odds reflect who people think will win, the bookies set their odds based on the money wagered. People don’t always tell the truth to pollsters but their money is a different matter.Maybe. Beats me to be honest.
I think that those who vote for X would tend to think that X would win, more often than not.
To the extent that there's a difference, and perhaps a large difference, which outcome would that difference would favor?
And what would would a "who do you think will win" poll communicate versus a "who will you vote for poll"?
For all the reasons in my post above plus a few dozen more along the same lines, I don’t believe it’s remotely a case of ‘unfounded optimism’.>> We’ll both find out the results at the same time but I’d rather be sanguine between now and November.
From a mental health perspective, sanguine optimism in a hoped-for future is probably optimal. From a cold, disinterested perspective, unfounded optimism is detrimental towards accurate prediction of future outcomes.
Me? I'm not confident either way. I'm extremely hopeful, though - but not at all sanguine at this point - that BIden will win.
The judge put a gagging order on him
You’re actually more confident than me but I got Biden at 5/2, he’s now come in to 5/4.I leave the thread for a few hours and I come back to some kind of 1812-style pitched battle!
For what it's worth, I am one of the posters who has maintained the position that I don't see Trump's path to victory. I should clarify though that just because I "don't see it" doesn't mean that it couldn't happen. It merely means that if he does win, then it will be because of some extraneous factor that I don't understand or am not taking into account. My position is largely based on demographics, because I am making the (speculative) assumption that with the US so polarised party-switching this year will be at an all-time low. As the last one was so close, it means the election will be determined largely on two things: demographics and turnout.
I think the demographics have moved sufficiently against Trump that even a slightly depressed turnout wouldn't be enough for him in the swing states. He is losing inner city and suburban voters at crazy rates, even in the primary.
But I'll say it again, this is a kind of sequitur argument that makes sense to me, it's more based in logic than any sophisticated model or any media narrative (in fact this goes against a lot of the current narrative). That means I have to concede that I could be wrong. I am slightly more confident than GDM, maybe not as confident as SWP, I'd give Trump maybe 10-15%... and let me be clear that's far higher than my comfort zone would like, which is why I'm so vocally against him rather than disregarding him as a non-threat.
He selling stolen hotel room bibles and autographing them? That’s a Doug Stanhope bit.Not content with grifting $400 gold shoes, the great orange one is now grifting $60 'God bless the USA' bibles
"Happy Holy Week! Let’s Make America Pray Again. As we lead into Good Friday and Easter, I encourage you to get a copy of the God Bless The USA Bible,” Trump, 77, posted on Truth Social.He selling stolen hotel room bibles and autographing them? That’s a Doug Stanhope bit.