The biggest factor will be if he shows contrition, which is unlikely given his character.. Will he encourage his followers to stop their sabre rattling? I think there may be a split sentence, ie a short period of confinement followed by a longer period of probation. Mind you he’ll love playing the martyr. “I am a political prisoner.”It's a unique case. I'd agree most 1st time white collar crimes don't equal jail time but there are 3 factors that come in:
1 he has been the worst possible defendant in terms of disrespecting the court.
2 this was part of a range of illegality and others have gone to jail for their part. It's also high stakes given the election.
3 given the choice and given 1 above why would you waste the opportunity to lock him up. He is going to appeal anyway and the worst that could happen is it gets reduced on appeal.
There will come a time when he gets a serious jail sentence. The documents case is no small matter and if Fani Willis secures a conviction in the Rico case, America can finally wipe the dog shit from its boots.