The biggest factor will be if he shows contrition, which is unlikely given his character.. Will he encourage his followers to stop their sabre rattling? I think there may be a split sentence, ie a short period of confinement followed by a longer period of probation. Mind you he’ll love playing the martyr. “I am a political prisoner.”
There will come a time when he gets a serious jail sentence. The documents case is no small matter and if Fani Willis secures a conviction in the Rico case, America can finally wipe the dog shit from its boots.