EFL Cup - 3rd Round Draw (WBA away)

SWP's back said:
Yes but add 0.5 x 0.5 etc etc and it's a one in 2,000 chance. That's how probability works.
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wrong I'm afraid, probability doesn't work like that at all.

The probability of United getting another home game in the next round given they have been drawn at home for 100 times in a row previously is 50%.

now if you asked what are the chances united are drawn at home for the next 2 games on the trot then it would 50%*50%=25%

as soon as the draw is made the result is irrelevant on future predictions as it's an independent event.
 
Bent or not, there is another consequence of all these away ties against prem or top championship clubs. And it's this..

It forces us to put out a stronger team than, say, if we had a home draw against Burton Albion.

Which means we have less chance to 'give the kids a go'.

This in turn helps reinforce the narrative that City don't give those kids a chance.

Which feeds down to our academy players who might think "well, I've got no chance of getting in the first team, so I'm not signing that contract".
 
mat said:
It would be so nice to see Frank post on other threads as vigorously as he does every time blues suspect foul play to wards our club.

11 away ties isn't 'bad luck'

Maybe we should lodge a team name change to save the draws some time. I propose for every domestic cup draw we are re-branded "Manchester City Away to..."
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To be honest mate when I do see a real grievances like the BBCs comments about Pete the badge I wrote in complaining to them about the treatment numerous times.

Has anyone reported this collusion to the police. Are you going to report this football fixing scandal?
 
Carabao is the second most popular energy drink in Thailand and the only reason the draw took place in China is to promote the drink in China, they don't really give a fcuk about the draw. Plus what I heard about the draw this morning I doubt they have the brains to try and fix it.
 
unexpected item said:
Bent or not, there is another consequence of all these away ties against prem or top championship clubs. And it's this..

It forces us to put out a stronger team than, say, if we had a home draw against Burton Albion.

Which means we have less chance to 'give the kids a go'.

This in turn helps reinforce the narrative that City don't give those kids a chance.

Which feeds down to our academy players who might think "well, I've got no chance of getting in the first team, so I'm not signing that contract".
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Of course it isn't bent, but your point is the only relevant one:

We have to play a stronger team, and travel, which puts more strain on the senior players and gives less chance to the kids.

The caviat is that I'd expect WEst Brom to play a weakened team, and our "reserves" should be more than capable.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
wrong I'm afraid, probability doesn't work like that at all.

The probability of United getting another home game in the next round given they have been drawn at home for 100 times in a row previously is 50%.

now if you asked what are the chances united are drawn at home for the next 2 games on the trot then it would 50%*50%=25%

as soon as the draw is made the result is irrelevant on future predictions as it's an independent event.
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What's the probability of 11 in a row?
 
The probability of getting 11 in a row is 0.048%
now what's the probability of the next game being drawn at home since they've drew 11 at home so far?
 
We've been drawn away to West Ham.

I've complained to the Football League that we've been denied a comfortable route through to the final and a chance to win a trophy, then compete in the Europa League, earn more money, sign better players, win promotion back to the Premier League, sell the club to a billionaire, sign world class players, compete for the title, win the title, compete for the Champions League, win the Champions League...

If only we'd been drawn at home to Doncaster or Bristol Rovers. It's a blatant conspiracy.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
Of course it isn't bent, but your point is the only relevant one:

We have to play a stronger team, and travel, which puts more strain on the senior players and gives less chance to the kids.

The caviat is that I'd expect WEst Brom to play a weakened team, and our "reserves" should be more than capable.
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I would expect similar and also as we have loaned a lot of the more eqipped kids to the likes of NEC and Girona it was inevitable some squad members will be involved if we wish to progress. Hopefully Foden and Diaz will be involved but accept the point, dependent upon on how Pep views the competition, it could be less likely.
 
Akiva said:
Now take that and throw in the likelihood of 11 consecutive away draws (0.5x0.5x0.5etc for around 0.0004% or a 1/2048 chance) and it's no longer statistically viable to be considered a coincidence.
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And that's just away draws against any opposition. If you then say there's a 50% chance of getting a PL or decent Championship team then there's a 1 in 4 chance of being drawn away to one of those teams.

Over 11 draws that's a chance of around 4.2m to 1 to have been given consecutive away draws to decent opposition.
 
franksinatra said:
I would expect similar and also as we have loaned a lot of the more eqipped kids to the likes of NEC and Girona it was inevitable some squad members will be involved if we wish to progress. Hopefully Foden and Diaz will be involved but accept the point, dependent upon on how Pep views the competition, it could be less likely.
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The problem from the manager's point of view is the fact that, yes, he needs the kids to be motivated and to see a route through, but he also has a full squad's egos to juggle, and also he needs to assess certain players' need for games or rest for confidence/fitness. It's a tough balancing act because he wants to win every game for his own future. he won't be sacked for not playing enough kids but he will if we don't win anything.

Things are so much easier if you have a home tie against weak opposition.
 
Surely the probability of a home or away tie in any round is one in two i.e. 50:50. But to draw a premier league team depends on how many are left in the draw. So for example in the last eight of the competition we have a 50:50 chance of home or away regardless of whether there are eight balls or two balls to be drawn. However at the beginning of the draw if there is only us and another premier club left we have a 1 in 7 chance of drawing them. If after four balls have been drawn we will have a 1 in three chance of being pitted against them. The odds on 11 away ties on the bounce to premier league teams depends on how many teams were in the draw to start with and how many were left when we were drawn out
 
Wanted this to be a game we could use the kids in, hopefully we can still do that and win. However, considering the media pressure Pep will be under this season he'll want to keep all routes open for a trophy this season. I think he could target this trophy, get some silverware in February and then play the last few months with a bit less pressure on him.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
The problem from the manager's point of view is the fact that, yes, he needs the kids to be motivated and to see a route through, but he also has a full squad's egos to juggle, and also he needs to assess certain players' need for games or rest for confidence/fitness. It's a tough balancing act because he wants to win every game for his own future. he won't be sacked for not playing enough kids but he will if we don't win anything.

Things are so much easier if you have a home tie against weak opposition.
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I would not argue with any of that and undoubtedly a home draw would be less problematic.

Just interesting when you see the numbers of kids out on loan how many Pep would wish to introduce at this juncture in their development.

Clearly he thinks Foden, Diaz, Tosin are ready to be introduced into the squad so hopefully those three will get game time. Arguably playing more than that against any opposition would be risky, particularly as the experienced kids like Garcia, Maffeo, Ambrose etc are out on loan.

Personally I hope he will use a sprinkling of those three and a strong pick from the likes of Danilo, Fernandinho, Yaya, Bravo, Sane, maybe Evans to supplement them and provide direction.
 
Manc in London said:
I thought it was just me.

To be fair, the place has been left to rot. It doesn't help that the councils are not very good. Walsall MBC is a basket case. I remember when the Chief Exec was sacked by the Leader (political decision). The sacked Chief Exec came back as a grass cutter. The Leader was ousted and the grass cutter came back as Chief Exec! I also remember a councillor secretly recording conversations between council officers in a cafe frequented by officers.
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I've had dealings with Walsall MBC and I think it's best I say nothing!!
 
wagonman said:
Who sodding cares?

If we can't beat WBA away in a cup match then we don't deserve to win the trophy.

JJ
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I don't think we will beat them. We know Peps attitude to it from the team he put out against the rags last season.

We'll use it a leverage to sign Johnny Fucking Evans.

:)
 
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