I think it’s pretty simple, unfortunately. Inflation has caused a lot of problems for incumbent governments all over the globe, seemingly regardless of their ability to control it. When laymen say “the economy” this is really the kind of thing they’re talking about.
Because you look at other markers of economic strength and the comparisons between Trump and Biden are a bit academic. The S&P500 rocketed under both of them. GDP has grown faster under Biden. Unemployment rate has been about the same as it was pre-pandemic under Trump. The relative economic strength of the US today is really no different than it was 5 years ago. The voters all noted that Trump signed a stimulus check for them during Covid, but now Biden is picking up the tab and the price of petrol and bread is noticeably higher. He’s basically been left holding the bag.
So it isn’t that Trump was doing anything brilliant, there was no policy that generated a successful economy. He just didn’t do anything stupid, probably because he wasn’t allowed to by the people advising him at the time. Most of his policies were empty gestures.
I’m not convinced things will be the same this time round because Trump has eradicated all the voices of reason that were around him. The US economy can probably survive most things, but if he starts slapping the tariffs down that he’s talking about just when inflation is starting to get back under control, he’s going to have a bad time.