England v Slovenia - Tue 25th June, 20:00 | Euro 2024 Group C

Match Result Prediction?


  • Total voters
    144
  • Poll closed .
Give Southgate one thing. He's a lucky ****.

Should scrape a Kane 1-0 penalty win against Slovakia.
Easiest Qualifying group, Easiest Group Stage, perfect draw v Slovakia. Then winners of Switzerland v Italy, then one of Romania, Holland, Slovenia or Austria in the semi finals.
As simple a route to the final as you could hope for
 
Easiest Qualifying group, Easiest Group Stage, perfect draw v Slovakia. Then winners of Switzerland v Italy, then one of Romania, Holland, Slovenia or Austria in the semi finals.
As simple a route to the final as you could hope for
And!! a cup competition where you don't have a f..ck..ng clue who you might meet, Sat here tonight in Essen very quiet before it goes radio next few days, we was watching both games and we thought it was gonna be Holland, I still think we will win it and if I had a quid for every Portugal fan going match before with Ronaldo 7 on back I would be minted, beer and everything has been cool, Manchester City to your proper fan from other teams over here who I know or meet is generally ok funny listening to some of the conversations around you and you have to either interject or laugh but also educate, sometimes feel like a Missionary but they either listen or they can dwell in their bitterness not ours another myth. CITY CITY. CITY.....
 
I think a big reason for England star players underperforming is that they have better quality players at their home clubs. Kane has Sane and Musiala to feed him, Bellingham has Vinicius, Kroos etc, Foden has Rodri to close out midfield so he can play with freedom, Saka has Odegaard and also Ben White on the overlaps.

Of the England starting XI yesterday only Kane, Bellingham and Foden would be guaranteed starters for Arsenal, and for City probably only Bellingham gets into your 1st XI.
I disagree.

In England, Kane has Foden + Saka, two players as good as Sane + Musiala, might be even more adequate since Foden is a natural creator. Rice, who IMO is no Rodri, is a very good player.

The issue is Southgate, who can't seem to get them all attacking into a cohesive unit. England is proving that you can't just plop 11 top players into a squad and win everything. The ability of the manager is the difference maker, and Southgate is showing to not be that.

As you said, Odegaard and White overlaps Saka, why? Because that's a clear plan of attacking movement from Arteta. Same reason Pep has Kev underlap the right flank, and sometimes Bernardo overloading the left. Any semblance of attacking creativity is non-existent from Southgate, other than the most predictable, bog-standard stuff. As good as players are, the manager still needs to tell them what to do.
 
Easiest Qualifying group, Easiest Group Stage, perfect draw v Slovakia. Then winners of Switzerland v Italy, then one of Romania, Holland, Slovenia or Austria in the semi finals.
As simple a route to the final as you could hope for

That's right, so should we win the Euros, i hope it is noted and repeated constantly as we barely celebrate winning the trophy, scrunch the empty lager can and throw it at the tv, kick the cat and go to bed early muttering 'it's all a disgrace, f*ck southgate'
 
not my words this //


We all need to BELIEVE. Believe that the lads are just warming up, finding their feet and believe that they have more gears to go through. It’s this belief that make us England fans, and its this belief that makes us the best fans in the world.

We are never underdogs. We are never beaten. We always believe.

What we must appreciate about Southgate and this generation of England players, is they are being conditioned not to lose. Not losing matches is what International, tournament football is about. And it was in 2014, as then England U21s Manager, that he spear-headed this new philosophy for English Football.

Too many times we headed into tournaments with a gung-ho approach, trying to out score teams and rely purely on our aggressive, high tempo English style. And it does not work in the modern, tournament game -well it certainly hadn’t worked for England in previous tournaments, and successive failed Managers like Sven and Fabio Capello, could not adopt a style that was successful.

The England DNA, created by Southgate over 10 years ago, has seen us winners of the U21s Championship in 2023, for the first time since 1984, winners of the U19s European Championships in 2017 and 2022; winners of the FIFA U17s World Cup in 2017; and of course Gareth has led the National Team to the World Cup Semi-Final in 2018, Quarter-Finals in 2022, and Runners-Up in the Euros in 2021.

Every fan sees things differently, and would pick a different starting XI to the next person. But whatever can be said, we still have a great squad, and a great chance of going one step further this summer…lifting the Euros
what a load of tosh
 
I still think it is nonsense. Every attacking move by a team is unique, and so is every defensive set up. A shot from 15 yards out can't have a definitive xG. It will be influenced by how many defenders are in the box, has the shot been taken by a recognised striker or a full back, was it on their stronger or weaker foot and so on and so on. There are so many variables so just to allocate an xG number is meaningless in my opinion (and I am never wrong).
Of course it's a nonsense, it's maths :)

All the match stats are, in a way, meaningless, even the actual individual results to some extent.
Shots on target, corners won, percentage possession, distance covered; all totally irrelevant and fundamentally meaningless. That's not the match. The match was the 90mins of football played between 22 blokes and officiated by some prick with his head up his arse. They're all different and none of them can really be actually predicted to any degree of certainty by probabilities. But like I said yesterday, it's just a shorthand way of expressing the match 'data'. A quick overview of the key important events, crunched down into number form.

Anyway, xG...

It's not meant to be some all conquering definitive answer to anything, it's just a simplification, and it's flawed because of this simplification, just like all stats are flawed (because their ENTIRE purpose is to simplify a situation), but the point of them is to show a condensed version of the entire game.

Obviously if the entire picture is needed then you watch the entire match, live as it happens, you can't get better than that. If you want an overview you have many options..

1) Watch the highlights - however this is going to be flawed, you only get to see chosen events, you don't see the panoramic picture just the camera view, you don't see how the match progressed...etc...etc...etc.

25mins? Maybe only about 10?
But you get an overview-ish.

2) Read a report - again flawed. Often opinion laden, often biased, only covers the events deemed important by the reporter...etc...etc...etc.

15mins? 10mins?

3) Have a quick glance at some match stats - flawed by their very nature for all the reasons you point out; and many, many more.

25seconds? 1min?

That's all it is though. Just a match stat. Just a more detailed version of total shot/shots on target which is designed to be consumed quickly and then move on.

Maths.
 
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