Etihad Campus, Stadium and Collar Site Development Thread

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We have sold out games that are two or three weeks away and people don't think we could fill another 6000 in that time at the right price. Of course we can. (And will)
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
thats the key to selling out, if we price tickets correctly we could sell out 60,000 no problem
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Exactly. Not fucking rocket science really, so the club should hopefully get it. Oh, and those extra will spend at the club shop, and food kiosks.....maybe some beer as well.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
We were getting 40k in 2006/7. When we won the title we were getting 7k more. This season we'll get a similar increase in our average crowd. Leicester is pretty well sold out next week. What's to say we couldn't add another 5-6,000 in the next 4 years? If we can persuade 50,000 people to attend a game just 2 or 3 times a season, we could do that.

As a business, we're in a growth phase. All our commercial efforts are going to increasing awareness and demand. Therefore we need to ensure we can meet that demand. And speaking as a fan who pays to go to games, I do not want a situation wher the execs constantly push up prices as demand increases and supply remains constant because that's the other side of shaelumstash's arguments. Even with 60k seats in the stadium, there are games we will sell out. But I don't want to be paying £1,000 for a bog-standard season ticket or £80+ for a single ticket.

The return on investment argument is largely irrelevant I suspect, for two reasons. First, I doubt it would be assessed as a stand-alone project, where we need to measure the rate of return against the spend. Increasing demand increases our overall value as a brand and company. Plus although we don't own the stadium, it is an asset in our balance sheet and its value would increase. Also, the money would probably come from Abu Dhabi rather than be sourced commercially so we wouldn't need to worry about justifying it on a commercial basis.
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I totally understand your point about the reverse to the argument. I remember discussing Tom Glick's pricing structure with you when we were at a reduced capacity due to the extension. He was ramping prices up in order to maximise revenue, and he was pricing a lot of loyal fans out. That's not fair on regular fans.

You pointed out he was looking at it from a short term commercial point of view; he'd prefer less fans paying higher prices than more fans paying less if it meant we took more through the tills that week. That's no way to run a football club, I agree, and getting towards the £80 a ticket mark would be unacceptable. We're a long way off that yet.

To make my point using a simplified example, let's say for arguments sake we currently charge £40 for a match ticket. We're currently averaging 53k. In my opinion, it would make no sense to increase the capacity to 62k because we would have to drop ticket prices in order to attract extra fans.

So currently: 53,000 x £40 = £2,120,000 ticket revenue per game

If we expanded to 62,000 and priced tickets at £30

If we expanded now: 62,000 x £30 = £1,860,000

So although people say "Expand, price it right, we'll fill it, simple." It's actually not that simple. Why would the club expand if it means they would be taking less money? Prestige of having a bigger stadium, future proofing, great. But it would cost them £50million to expand and take less revenue, it just doesn't make any sense.

My view is that we continue to expand our match going fan base organically. Keep prices affordable, but not giving them away. So let's say keep them at £40 a ticket. the 53k average this season might jump up to 54k average next season. 55k the season after. If we got 55k the season after, all paying £40 a ticket, it would be clear that it would make sense to expand because demand is outstripping supply.

So let's say after the 3rd year we expand to 62k, we can then still charge £40 a ticket. We might not fill it, we might be just short, say 60,000. So we're back where we are now, and the whole process starts again.

60,000 x £40 = £2,400,000.

That's a £280,000 a match increase in revenue from currently. If the stand cost £50m, it would pay for itself in under 10 years. Whereas if we expand now and drop ticket prices, it will actually lose us money in the short term.

We definitely want to get to 62k eventually. But my point is it's better to wait a couple of years than to expand right now.
 
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Shaelumstash said:
I totally understand your point about the reverse to the argument. I remember discussing Tom Glick's pricing structure with you when we were at a reduced capacity due to the extension. He was ramping prices up in order to maximise revenue, and he was pricing a lot of loyal fans out. That's not fair on regular fans.

You pointed out he was looking at it from a short term commercial point of view; he'd prefer less fans paying higher prices than more fans paying less if it meant we took more through the tills that week. That's no way to run a football club, I agree, and getting towards the £80 a ticket mark would be unacceptable. We're a long way off that yet.

To make my point using a simplified example, let's say for arguments sake we currently charge £40 for a match ticket. We're currently averaging 53k. In my opinion, it would make no sense to increase the capacity to 62k because we would have to drop ticket prices in order to attract extra fans.

So currently: 53,000 x £40 = £2,120,000 ticket revenue per game

If we expanded to 62,000 and priced tickets at £30

If we expanded now: 62,000 x £30 = £1,860,000

So although people say "Expand, price it right, we'll fill it, simple." It's actually not that simple. Why would the club expand if it means they would be taking less money? Prestige of having a bigger stadium, future proofing, great. But it would cost them £50million to expand and take less revenue, it just doesn't make any sense.

My view is that we continue to expand our match going fan base organically. Keep prices affordable, but not giving them away. So let's say keep them at £40 a ticket. the 53k average this season might jump up to 54k average next season. 55k the season after. If we got 55k the season after, all paying £40 a ticket, it would be clear that it would make sense to expand because demand is outstripping supply.

So let's say after the 3rd year we expand to 62k, we can then still charge £40 a ticket. We might not fill it, we might be just short, say 60,000. So we're back where we are now, and the whole process starts again.

60,000 x £40 = £2,400,000.

That's a £280,000 a match increase in revenue from currently. If the stand cost £50m, it would pay for itself in under 10 years. Whereas if we expand now and drop ticket prices, it will actually lose us money in the short term.

We definitely want to get to 62k eventually. But my point is it's better to wait a couple of years than to expand right now.
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Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
and ? it doesnt make what he's saying wrong and it s what we should be doing.
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Mate, it's a brilliant quote and I've used it before myself. I wish all clubs had that mentality.

Unfortunately with FFP it's not feasible for us. We need to increase match day revenue to remain competitive. We've caught up and overtaken our rivals in some respects on commercial and broadcast income. But match day we still lag some way behind.

It's a pipe dream to think that Sheikh Mansour is going to spend £50m expanding the stadium and slash ticket prices as a gift to the fans. In my opinion we will only expand when it makes commercial sense to do so.

Sheikh Mansour is the best owner in the history of football, we couldn't have anyone better. But he's not stupid.
 
If we announced we were going ahead with the North stand expansion tomorrow and did the same as last time fans paid £100 deposit against the cost of a season ticket in the new stand I'm sure several thousand fans would jump at the chance. With a similar uptake of 7000 there would be no need to increase ticket prices and if we increased attendance to say 59000 which I'm sure we would using Shaleums figures 59000 x £48 = £2,832,000 so a fairly significant increase in matchday revenue. Also people forget ADUG are not short term thinkers they see the long term picture and just because something doesn't follow normal business practice if it helps to achieve the long term goal they will do it.
PS my left bollock has no qualifications
 
Of course ADUG are long term thinkers, but that has little bearing on when to further expand.
When and if the time is right, I'm sure they will.
The fact that they've presented plans for the North stands clearly demonstrates it's in their thinking, but they also said they would look at the success of the south stand too.

They may well take another view too, and deem that the North Stand might not be worth doing right away, but instead consider ways to incorporate changes to the CB and East Stand too. We simply don't know what's going through their minds.

I think it's fair to say the South Stand has been a success, but we're only one season in, so all those enthused to buy tickets for it still need to be measured when it comes to renewals - this might also be a factor in City's thinking.

I don't think we should kid ourselves that growing from 49K to 60K is a simple task. I'm sure City think it's more than possible, but it doesn't happen overnight, and it takes some effort on and off the pitch. We might all like to imagine there's a massive queue of City fans waiting to get tickets, but I think we have to be realistic and say it's not that large a queue of people waiting. For the big games, yes we could probably get 60K, but for the lesser games, it might be a struggle. In many people's eyes, that's not an issue, we don't have to have near 100% utilisation, it's there when we need it, and that's enough. However I do think City want to get the PR right on this, and don't want it to be portrayed as a white elephant expansion.

They might also be wary of other clubs expanding, and that might be influencing decisions at City too. Maybe they are considering an even greater capacity than some of the rival expansions? who knows.

Long term vision doesn't mean rushing into a decision, or being afraid to change plans. If we have to delay, or change the expansion plans, I'm sure it will be with the long term best interests at heart.
Expansion is clearly part of our long term strategy, but 'how' is another matter. Knowing what we now know about the South Stand, there may well be some design mistakes they'd like to correct or improve on. Again, who knows?

If we don't expand further for a couple of years, I won't feel let down, or disappointed, I won't feel we are inferior because someone else has a larger stadium. It'll happen when it happens!
 
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robbie brewer said:
If we announced we were going ahead with the North stand expansion tomorrow and did the same as last time fans paid £100 deposit against the cost of a season ticket in the new stand I'm sure several thousand fans would jump at the chance. With a similar uptake of 7000 there would be no need to increase ticket prices and if we increased attendance to say 59000 which I'm sure we would using Shaleums figures 59000 x £48 = £2,832,000 so a fairly significant increase in matchday revenue. Also people forget ADUG are not short term thinkers they see the long term picture and just because something doesn't follow normal business practice if it helps to achieve the long term goal they will do it.
PS my left bollock has no qualifications
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You're quite right mate that if we had 7000 blues who who eager to come to every game who weren't currently coming, it would make perfect sense to expand right now.

Unfortunately, it's different to 2 years ago though. 2 years ago we were selling out every week. There was probably 5000 who wanted to come every week and couldn't, so it made perfect sense to expand.

Currently we are not selling out every week, so the evidence would suggest there isn't 5000 who want to come but can't. Otherwise, they'd be buying the tickets that are available right now.

My point is that we should wait until there are 5000 who want to come every week but can't get a ticket. It will happen eventually, probably in the next 3 or 4 years, but it's clearly not the case right now.
 
FanchesterCity said:
Of course ADUG are long term thinkers, but that has little bearing on when to further expand.
When and if the time is right, I'm sure they will.
The fact that they've presented plans for the North stands clearly demonstrates it's in their thinking, but they also said they would look at the success of the south stand too.

They may well take another view too, and deem that the North Stand might not be worth doing right away, but instead consider ways to incorporate changes to the CB and East Stand too. We simply don't know what's going through their minds.

I think it's fair to say the South Stand has been a success, but we're only one season in, so all those enthused to buy tickets for it still need to be measured when it comes to renewals - this might also be a factor in City's thinking.

I don't think we should kid ourselves that growing from 49K to 60K is a simple task. I'm sure City think it's more than possible, but it doesn't happen overnight, and it takes some effort on and off the pitch. We might all like to imagine there's a massive queue of City fans waiting to get tickets, but I think we have to be realistic and say it's not that large a queue of people waiting. For the big games, yes we could probably get 60K, but for the lesser games, it might be a struggle. In many people's eyes, that's not an issue, we don't have to have near 100% utilisation, it's there when we need it, and that's enough. However I do think City want to get the PR right on this, and don't want it to be portrayed as a white elephant expansion.

They might also be wary of other clubs expanding, and that might be influencing decisions at City too. Maybe they are considering an even greater capacity than some of the rival expansions? who knows.

Long term vision doesn't mean rushing into a decision, or being afraid to change plans. If we have to delay, or change the expansion plans, I'm sure it will be with the long term best interests at heart.
Expansion is clearly part of our long term strategy, but 'how' is another matter. Knowing what we now know about the South Stand, there may well be some decision mistakes they'd like to correct or improve on. Again, who knows?

If we don't expand further for a couple of years, I won't feel let down, or disappointed, I won't feel we are inferior because someone else has a larger stadium. It'll happen when it happens!
Click to expand...

Superb post mate, totally agree.

We should trust that the club know the right time to expand. As fans we shouldn't be too wrapped up in what Spurs or West Ham are doing, let's do what's best for us.
 
Shaelumstash said:
So although people say "Expand, price it right, we'll fill it, simple." It's actually not that simple. Why would the club expand if it means they would be taking less money? Prestige of having a bigger stadium, future proofing, great. But it would cost them £50million to expand and take less revenue, it just doesn't make any sense.
Click to expand...
In business, when you've got excess stock/supply, it makes sense to reduce your margin on the supply it's difficult to shift in order to make room for something you can sell at a higher margin. That's why stores have sales. Or if you offer a service and have excess capacity, you sell it at cost or less, just to bring revenue in.

It's not quite the same for a football ground but the basic principle is the same. Sell excess capacity to get people in, even if that means a short-term loss of revenue. As I said, any loss would be a fraction of one percent so no great shakes. And I believe there's a psychological element: if people see the ground full it creates more demand. Or we could maintain pricing and maybe get full houses for half a dozen games, which might be worth a couple of million a year to us.

The key question, as you've already identified, is whether the owners would look at the return on any investment to expand the North Stand in isolation. You believe they would whereas I don't. But even if you're right, I think the expansion of the South Stand will be worth something like £5-6m a year to us. Not just because of the extra seats but because of the expansion of premium seats, in the East, Colin Bell and South Stands. That's where the money is, not in the £299 season tickets. If we could achieve even £3m with the expansion of the North Stand, we'll be achieving an additional £8-9m for maybe £100m of investment. That's worth doing.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
In business, when you've got excess stock/supply, it makes sense to reduce your margin on the supply it's difficult to shift in order to make room for something you can sell at a higher margin. That's why stores have sales. Or if you offer a service and have excess capacity, you sell it at cost or less, just to bring revenue in.

It's not quite the same for a football ground but the basic principle is the same. Sell excess capacity to get people in, even if that means a short-term loss of revenue. As I said, any loss would be a fraction of one percent so no great shakes. And I believe there's a psychological element: if people see the ground full it creates more demand. Or we could maintain pricing and maybe get full houses for half a dozen games, which might be worth a couple of million a year to us.

The key question, as you've already identified, is whether the owners would look at the return on any investment to expand the North Stand in isolation. You believe they would whereas I don't. But even if you're right, I think the expansion of the South Stand will be worth something like £5-6m a year to us. Not just because of the extra seats but because of the expansion of premium seats, in the East, Colin Bell and South Stands. That's where the money is, not in the £299 season tickets. If we could achieve even £3m with the expansion of the North Stand, we'll be achieving an additional £8-9m for maybe £100m of investment. That's worth doing.
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I think these are the basic options:

1) Just expand as soon as possible - spend 50m+ to do so, accept that it might be half empty for some games, but for big games will be full, and still accept that we get a small ROI whenever we get more then 54K In pure business terms, there might be a better ROI by spending 50m elsewhere - much depends on what City really believe that ROI to be. All in all though, I don't think City are going to be majorly concerned about the ROI. We aren't desperate to recover that money in a hurry (if at all)

2) Hold off on the expansion because of the bad PR we might get from poor utilisation, and the expansion being labelled as a white elephant. Fans will argue either way on this, but it's quite possible a consideration for City

3) Take stock of what's happened with the South Stand, and be mindful of other expansion projects at rivals, and 'rethink' our strategy to usurp them.
I'm reminded on the Chrysler Building in NYC which was once the world's tallest building, only to be usurped by the Empire State soon after. I'm not suggesting City are in some 'biggest stadium' dick swinging contest, but we still might be wary of rushing into the North Stand expansion in a hurry, and then being unable to further still without a lot of disruption. City might actually think it better to hold off, and do a better / smarter expansion a little later.

Personally I think 3) makes sense. Let us better understand the South Stand, what worked and what didn't, get a better feel for genuine demand now we're at 54K, and also have an eye on other expansions.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
In business, when you've got excess stock/supply, it makes sense to reduce your margin on the supply it's difficult to shift in order to make room for something you can sell at a higher margin. That's why stores have sales. Or if you offer a service and have excess capacity, you sell it at cost or less, just to bring revenue in.

It's not quite the same for a football ground but the basic principle is the same. Sell excess capacity to get people in, even if that means a short-term loss of revenue. As I said, any loss would be a fraction of one percent so no great shakes. And I believe there's a psychological element: if people see the ground full it creates more demand. Or we could maintain pricing and maybe get full houses for half a dozen games, which might be worth a couple of million a year to us.

The key question, as you've already identified, is whether the owners would look at the return on any investment to expand the North Stand in isolation. You believe they would whereas I don't. But even if you're right, I think the expansion of the South Stand will be worth something like £5-6m a year to us. Not just because of the extra seats but because of the expansion of premium seats, in the East, Colin Bell and South Stands. That's where the money is, not in the £299 season tickets. If we could achieve even £3m with the expansion of the North Stand, we'll be achieving an additional £8-9m for maybe £100m of investment. That's worth doing.
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Some good points, but as you say, it's not quite the same for football grounds. If you started selling excess capacity at a lower price / loss in the short term, that could have a long term negative affect on match day prices. If Jonny currently pays £40 for a match day ticket, but he sees after expansion that he can get a ticket for £20, he's less inclined to pay 40 in future.

You are right though, I'm looking at it from the point of view of how best to get a ROI. If that wasn't a consideration I'd love us to build a 100k stadium and charge £5 in.

I know it's an extreme example, but selfishly I want the boggest stadium and cheapest tickets just like everyone else, but I don't think it's very feasible.
 
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Why are we not looking at extra demand from the away team, why can't we be one of the few clubs to offer the away team 5000/6000 tickets, all the big london clubs and the north west would sell them at premium prices, while the smaller clubs and the north east could have them cheaper.

With the new tv deals domestically and in europe, ticket prices should drop next season accross the board, expand the north stand, and price it accordingly, demand has peaked at the minute, but apart from a few seats, we are not exactly cheap
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
In business, when you've got excess stock/supply, it makes sense to reduce your margin on the supply it's difficult to shift in order to make room for something you can sell at a higher margin. That's why stores have sales. Or if you offer a service and have excess capacity, you sell it at cost or less, just to bring revenue in.

It's not quite the same for a football ground but the basic principle is the same. Sell excess capacity to get people in, even if that means a short-term loss of revenue. As I said, any loss would be a fraction of one percent so no great shakes. And I believe there's a psychological element: if people see the ground full it creates more demand. Or we could maintain pricing and maybe get full houses for half a dozen games, which might be worth a couple of million a year to us.

The key question, as you've already identified, is whether the owners would look at the return on any investment to expand the North Stand in isolation. You believe they would whereas I don't. But even if you're right, I think the expansion of the South Stand will be worth something like £5-6m a year to us. Not just because of the extra seats but because of the expansion of premium seats, in the East, Colin Bell and South Stands. That's where the money is, not in the £299 season tickets. If we could achieve even £3m with the expansion of the North Stand, we'll be achieving an additional £8-9m for maybe £100m of investment. That's worth doing.
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From what I have heard the club don't think the scope for much more corporate in the ground is feasible. Hence studies into single tiers, indoor arenas, fan zones, cheap "kop" style stand at the north end. And studies into benefits of cheaper seats for the next generation of fans. Trying different models to justify the outlay whilst building up demand. At least 9 games would get 60000 in my opinion.
 
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