EU referendum

[BigJoe#1]

If we stay in the EU and I sincerely hope we don't, do the remainers really believe we can continue in our present state? I don't.

If we stay in then we should commit to it lock, stock and barrel. We should open our borders, join the Euro and participate in political integration, if we don't we will always be the poor guy who will have minimal influence and power. Cameron has truely fucked this up beyond belief. Either way, after the referendum we're going to be a broken nation.

 

[BlueHammer85]

If we stay in the EU and I sincerely hope we don't, do the remainers really believe we can continue in our present state? I don't.

If we stay in then we should commit to it lock, stock and barrel. We should open our borders, join the Euro and participate in political integration, if we don't we will always be the poor guy who will have minimal influence and power. Cameron has truely fucked this up beyond belief. Either way, after the referendum we're going to be a broken nation.

Life will be the same.

Noises and moans here and there but nothing really changes.

 

[BigJoe#1]

Life will be the same.

Noises and moans here and there but nothing really changes.

Life will not stay the same, it will deteriorate.

The EU will feel it has the total backing of the UK and we will be accepting of all the changes they wish to impose upon us. Life will be very difficult.

If we're in then why not sign up in full and be a fully integrated participant? This "special case" status that call me Dave has achieved for us is the worst case scenario. If we're in, we're in.

 

[cibaman]

Life will not stay the same, it will deteriorate.

The EU will feel it has the total backing of the UK and we will be accepting of all the changes they wish to impose upon us. Life will be very difficult.

If we're in then why not sign up in full and be a fully integrated participant? This "special case" status that call me Dave has achieved for us is the worst case scenario. If we're in, we're in.

I don't really understand your logic. Why should we sign up in full? What would we gain from joining the Euro? Why is the "special case" the worst case? it seems to me that some of the exemptions we benefit from, not being in the Euro, the rebate, are better to have than not have.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Having just had a dig about the stats and you seem to have a very bleak view of the EU. Most of the countries are doing OK unemployment wise and most are doing as well, if not better than us growth wise. especially when you consider our Unemployment values are out of whack because of zero hour contracts.

Greece being an exception on growth and unemployment and Spain has high unemployment. Heres a copy paste of it, Sorry for crappy formatting.


Country, unemployment, Growth GDP
Austria, 10.6, 0.9
Belgium, 7.8, 1.4
Bulgaria, 10, 3
Croatia, 17.9, 1.6
Cyprus, 15.8, 1.6
Czech Republic, 6.2, 2.0 ( 2014 )
Denmark, 4.5, 1.2
Estonia, 5.2, 1.1
Finland, 8.2, 0.5
France, 10.6, 1.2
Germany, 4.5, 1.7
Greece, 24.5, -0.2
Hungary, 6.2, 2.9
Ireland, 8.8, 7.8
Italy, 11.3, 0.8
Latvia, 9.7, 2.7
Lithuania, 9.4, 1.6
Luxembourg, 6.7, 4.8
Malta, 5.1, 6.3
Netherlands, 6.6, 2
Poland, 9.8, 3.6
Portugal, 12.4, 1.5
Romania, 6.7, 3.8
Slovakia, 10.6, 3.6
Slovenia, 11.7, 2.9
Spain, 21.4, 3.2
Sweden, 7.5, 4.1
UK, 5.1, 2.3

Where did you get this from?

Interesting to note that the UK is pretty much on a par with Germany and also actually the US (5.5%, 2%)

 

[Chippy_boy]

I don't really understand your logic. Why should we sign up in full? What would we gain from joining the Euro? Why is the "special case" the worst case? it seems to me that some of the exemptions we benefit from, not being in the Euro, the rebate, are better to have than not have.

As I've said before, the EURO is at the root of many problems and if it were to be scrapped, Europe would be the better for it, with the PIGS being able to devalue their currencies, boost their exports, get their economies moving.

 

[cibaman]

As I've said before, the EURO is at the root of many problems and if it were to be scrapped, Europe would be the better for it, with the PIGS being able to devalue their currencies, boost their exports, get their economies moving.

I agree, but I don't know how the Euro could be scrapped. Would it be in one go, with all countries simultaneously returning to their old currency, or piecemeal over several years? The problem as I see it is that there isn't a market rate for where the new currencies would trade, which I imagine would create huge volatility, at least initially.

And I'm not sure how many countries would support a move to scrap it. The Euro might be sub optimal for many of them, but coming out of it creates significant risks, especially if the initial conversion rate is too high or low.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I agree, but I don't know how the Euro could be scrapped. Would it be in one go, with all countries simultaneously returning to their old currency, or piecemeal over several years? The problem as I see it is that there isn't a market rate for where the new currencies would trade, which I imagine would create huge volatility, at least initially.

And I'm not sure how many countries would support a move to scrap it. The Euro might be sub optimal for many of them, but coming out of it creates significant risks, especially if the initial conversion rate is too high or low.

I think if it is to go, it will be because it becomes unsustainable. At the moment, the Greek situation is just about manageable in that the sorts of sums needed to be pumped into the Greek economy are just about bearable by the Germans. If (when) a much larger country gets into trouble, there will be no way they can be bailed out - the sums needed will be too huge - and the only option will be for them to leave the Euro. And once that happens, it will imho all start to unravel. Bizarre though perhaps it might seem, it could be France or Italy that bring the currency down. Both countries are basically bankrupt and in the case of Italy with it's BBB- credit rating, it's ability to borrow its way out of a crisis would be severely tested... even more so if the credit rating was cut further in a downturn.

If Greece leaves then Portugal or Ireland would likely follow and Italy would be next and then the Euro as we know it, is finished.

 

[grunge]

Where did you get this from?

Interesting to note that the UK is pretty much on a par with Germany and also actually the US (5.5%, 2%)

I formed the list manually, getting a list of EU countries online then cross referenced them with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_unemployment_rate

and

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115&plugin=1

I normally try to find 2 sources for info but didn't have time so had to trust these ones.

 

[BigJoe#1]

I don't really understand your logic. Why should we sign up in full? What would we gain from joining the Euro? Why is the "special case" the worst case? it seems to me that some of the exemptions we benefit from, not being in the Euro, the rebate, are better to have than not have.

Quite simply because when fundamental decisions are taken we will be excluded. Decisions will, quite rightly, be made for the benefit of the Euro and the impact on the pound will not be fully considered. Unfortunately Mr Cameron has to learn that in the real world outside his comfortable millionaire lifestyle you cannot have the best of both worlds just because you tell people you can.

My opinion and I respect that you have yours. I think we would be much better off out of the whole mess, otherwise as it sinks, we will be dragged under with it and I don't think we will have been party to the full decision making process that will lead us there!