EU referendum

[Ancient Citizen]

Judging by the replies on here and those of everyone I speak to I think it will be a whitewash leave vote! I've yet to speak to a single person who is adament about voting to stay in. The only thing that will swing it the other way for me is if droves of people bottle it come voting day. The only people that will really resoundingly vote leave are young people and they are also the ones least likely to vote anyway.

This is indeed a weird anomaly, I've had the same experience of virtually everyone asked saying 'out,' and that's a combination of Labour/Conservative/others.
However, if you study most of the polls, they generally trend towards around 5% more folk intending to remain.
Maybe it's down to the people we know empathising with us, but this isn't the case during elections, or general political views, so fuck knows
which side is going to win this.

 

[EalingBlue2]

This is indeed a weird anomaly, I've had the same experience of virtually everyone asked saying 'out,' and that's a combination of Labour/Conservative/others.
However, if you study most of the polls, they generally trend towards around 5% more folk intending to remain.
Maybe it's down to the people we know empathising with us, but this isn't the case during elections, or general political views, so fuck knows
which side is going to win this.

That is exactly what everyone said in Scotland, it seemed like everyone was voting out and that independence was the only way. Must admit when talking with family and friends back in the UK or people out here short term and voting the exact opposite is true it would be mainly in .

 

[AlgarveBlu]

This is indeed a weird anomaly, I've had the same experience of virtually everyone asked saying 'out,' and that's a combination of Labour/Conservative/others.
However, if you study most of the polls, they generally trend towards around 5% more folk intending to remain.
Maybe it's down to the people we know empathising with us, but this isn't the case during elections, or general political views, so fuck knows
which side is going to win this.

I thinks it's basically down to the outers being louder and more passionate about the cause (similar to the jock referendum) and the remainers will just tick the remain box but with a few reservations and without any great enthusiasm.

 

[blueonblue]

Same here, I have meet ONE person who wants to stay in (Yep, he`s an arsehole rag), I spend most weekends away in rural locations and its the same there, from farmers to pottery workers from Stoke and all points in between its an out vote.
I spent a week in and around Grimsby and there was no sign of an inner, so I did think its a North/South thing, but them my eldest lives and works in London an tells me the majority he knows down there are for out.

 

[grunge]

I've got about a 80/90% in rate on people I speak too. the majority are in the tech industry and education, I dont know if that's making a difference.

the exiters I've met tend to be quite confused about what they think they will be getting, One of them wanted out because of Zero hour contracts!. Im really not sure how that works.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

I thinks it's basically down to the outers being louder and more passionate about the cause (similar to the jock referendum) and the remainers will just tick the remain box but with a few reservations and without any great enthusiasm.

Yes, possibly, but why wouldn't 'inners' be just as passionate? It is true that 'outers' are vehement about leaving, with no possibility of
dithering at the ballot box, but this doesn't seem to be reflected by the remainers, those I've asked that want to remain generally do it with an air
of resigned acceptance.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Yes, possibly, but why wouldn't 'inners' be just as passionate? It is true that 'outers' are vehement about leaving, with no possibility of
dithering at the ballot box, but this doesn't seem to be reflected by the remainers, those I've asked that want to remain generally do it with an air
of resigned acceptance.

In most cases quiet confidence and a confident belief that they are right same as those who voted stay in Scotland. You don't need to be angry loud and outspoken about the status quo.

also if you look at all detailed polls there are demographics that tend to show in and out areas. Older people more out, younger in, university educated tend in, cities more in than rural, big business more in than small business so I guess how many people any of us talk to and if they are in or out will be determined a lot by who we talk to.

As for the comment on passion talk to people who have recently left the place you work some will be madly passionate about leaving and how right they were, how it's the worst company ever and they have been so vindicated. That doesn't mean that those who choose to stay and go back to the same job tomorrow they had today , have to be jumping for joy about going to work , even if they much prefer that to the trouble of finding another job and joining a new company and quite like it. It is after all just another day the same as yesterday.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

In most cases quiet confidence and a confident belief that they are right same as those who voted stay in Scotland. You don't need to be angry loud and outspoken about the status quo.

also if you look at all detailed polls there are demographics that tend to show in and out areas. Older people more out, younger in, university educated tend in, cities more in than rural, big business more in than small business so I guess how many people any of us talk to and if they are in or out will be determined a lot by who we talk to.

As for the comment on passion talk to people who have recently left the place you work some will be madly passionate about leaving and how right they were, how it's the worst company ever and they have been so vindicated. That doesn't mean that those who choose to stay and go back to the same job tomorrow they had today , have to be jumping for joy about going to work , even if they much prefer that to the trouble of finding another job and joining a new company and quite like it. It is after all just another day the same as yesterday.

They will certainly believe themselves right, as do outers. Your second paragraph is also probably right, apart from the education bit, as it assumes older university educated people
are voting in; not the case everytime, although it's impossible to determine accurately. I'd agree about big business, certainly at senior management level, at worker level, again not so sure.
Small businesses are the biggest employers overall, so if they're predominantly outers, the outcome appears far from certain.

 

[Monkfish]

odds for 'out' to win are identical to those for Labour to win most seats at the next election so the bookies don't think its uncertain (and that's with 90% of the bets going on 'out')

 

[grunge]

odds for 'out' to win are identical to those for Labour to win most seats at the next election so the bookies don't think its uncertain (and that's with 90% of the bets going on 'out')

Bookies only follow the money. All that says is a lot more people are putting money on leaving.