EU referendum

[mcfc1632]

I don't think we'll agree free trade. I think we'll agree trade with small tariffs (say in the 2% region) so that the EU isn't harmed much by the UK taking our business elsewhere and the EU isn't seen to be giving the UK the best of both worlds. I don't think we'll agree to contributing anything significant to the budget and freedom of movement won't be agreed. Similar to what Canada seem to be signing up for.

There's always a middle ground.

That (IMO) is very close to the right answer - and it will be dressed up by both parties as Win/Win

 

[Chippy_boy]

The EU will be in a very tenuous position though - if we get quite favourable terms, then that will lead other members to think 'we might as well quit too, because we can get decent terms by being out of the EU!'. Very tricky for the EU this as they'll already be wary of us initiating a domino effect.

I've been saying exactly that for the past 500 pages.

All this chest-puffed-out talk of "but we're the worlds 5th largest economy", "of course we can agree a tariff-free, no strings trade deal". The top 3 are the US, China and Japan and none of them have managed to agree a such a deal!

And then there's the mechanics of how this fantasy deal would be agreed. Something like 24 of the members states don't really export much to us at all and would have nothing to gain from such a deal. But they would be hurt by one. UK businesses, free from the burden of EU legislation could benefit from a lower cost base and could compete unfairly with their domestic businesses who do have to comply with the European legislation. They will want to vote no to any such proposed deal. Germany may want it (actually, they wouldn't, for the reasons you mention) but to be ratified it needs the support of 20 member state and there's no way 20 states would agree to it.

Imagine the consequences if we did actually manage to agree a no-strings, tariff-free trade deal. One of the big problems foreign (ex-European) businesses face when trying to set up in the EU is complying with the myriad of social and other legislation. What if they could set up in the UK, free from all of that, and STILL be able to export freely and without tariff from the UK to the EU? Businesses would think this was marvellous and there would be an exodus of Japanese, American, Chinese, Malaysian etc businesses out of the EU to the UK. UK would grow strongly at the expense of other European nations. Does anyone honestly think the EU would vote for this???

 

[FanchesterCity]

Watch the 1 minute Lawson put down of the cbi. For all the "business experts all vote in" people I think Lawson has a bit of clout and experience as a respected former chancellor and knows the uk eu relationship.

His answer to those who say the brexiters need to tell us what the alternative economically would be If we vote leave is

It would simply be would be outside the eu. It may surprise some to know but most countries in the world are in fact outside the Eu and in recent years the performance of countries outside the eu has performed better than those countries in the eu.

Most of the financial world is the USA and China - the two largest economies and markets (outside of EU) - both of whom we are trying to compete with.

Four of the top 10 economies are in the EU.
Japan's economy is larger than any of the EU nations, but it has a huge manufacturing sector - we let ours slide away, and what remains of manufacturing is largely owned by foreign companies. So whilst we can say 'we could be like Japan' - yes, we could, IF we manufactured to the extent they do. Probably a 20-50 year process. And politicians are portraying Japan as a little island nation - not mentioning a 130million population - 50% larger than any EU nation.

 

[Monkfish]

Possibly so. Wouldn't put it past them to suddenly and coincidentally find an important concession on 22/6.

Couldn't see anything they could do that would do that, I'm in the remain camp but must admit it is a bloated slow moving organsiation. Anything they would do would probably be counterproductive anyway

 

[Chippy_boy]

It may surprise some to know but most countries in the world are in fact outside the Eu and in recent years the performance of countries outside the eu has performed better than those countries in the eu.

1. SOME countries outside the EU have performed better. MANY clearly have not.

2. How many of these that have done better have 44% of their exports going to the EU? How many of them have a domestic manufacturing base that is dominated by foreign investment that is there largely because of the country being in the EU? How many of them have an economy dominated by their services sector? Answer: None.

You paint an irrelevant picture because we are uniquely dependent upon the EU in a way that none of the countries you might compare us to are.

 

[CityStu]

I gave you the exact figures, 2 weeks ago (give or take a day) 87% of bets were for leave

Today 57% of bets placed are for remain

No opinion, just facts.

So more big money bets have gone on Leave recently then?

 

[BlueHammer85]

 

[Chippy_boy]

Well said chippy, I find it ignorant to say we can negotiate big trade deals with our measly industrial British market. We just don't make as many things anymore! China wants our British brands eg bags, clothes and London high street brands but not our steel etc. Plus other manufactured and industrial goods. Wow what a trade deal we have in store! Japan wants to sell their cars to the eu through us with no tariff, so what can we sell them in exchange to keep them here? Kath kitson bags and clothes...

In a nutshell mate.

This fantasy "free to negotiate our own deals with other countries around the world" sounds superficially marvellous, doesn't it. But people need to stop and think about what that actually means (putting to one side for a moment how long it would take and how difficult it would be). Why would having a trade deal with China be so marvellous for us, compared to the trading arrangements we already have? There may be some marginal benefit perhaps, but is this going to offset the huge losses we'll face from the unheaval, uncertainly and loss of jobs a Brexit vote would bring about? OF COURSE NOT.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Well said chippy, I find it ignorant to say we can negotiate big trade deals with our measly industrial British market. We just don't make as many things anymore! China wants our British brands eg bags, clothes and London high street brands but not our steel etc. Plus other manufactured and industrial goods. Wow what a trade deal we have in store! Japan wants to sell their cars to the eu through us with no tariff, so what can we sell them in exchange to keep them here? Kath kitson bags and clothes...

Good argument mate......these are all the realities of leaving the EU and things the "outs" dont want to think about.......I'm looking at this as in risk/reward.......and EVERYTHING I see and read just confirms the risk of leaving is alot greater than any long term reward we might have and in the short term everybody (ins and outs) agree the the uncertainty will only damage our econemy...

 

[mcfc1632]

I honestly think that a large number of brexit voters are easily lead by the rallying calls of 'take back control', 'Proud to be British' and 'not being told what to do by foreigners'. It's certainly not all brexit voters, but a fair whack of them.
But equally, a lot of remain voters are driven by the fear of a large 'unknown' and 'better the devil you know'.

The strength of political personalities is also having a considerable effect, and whilst the delivery of great speeches can very impressive and vote winning because the manipulate emotions in the same way starving children in Africa can manipulate emotions, it doesn't necessarily hold that things are going to improve just because we'd all like them to (one way or another).

It's harder to sell 'remain' because we're already in the EU and there's discontent and rightly or wrongly many of today's issues are being laid at the EU. It's a lot easier to sell 'leave' because it plays on ideals and aspirations for the future and it's selling the notion of a favourable outcome by leaving. Everything that is bad today is at least in part because of EU membership and everything that COULD be good in the future will come from leaving the EU. Classic sales technique right there - what you have is inadequate, what you could have is available to you if you agree to buy right now...

That is IMO just a lazy generalisation - much the same as if Leavers state that the Remainers are a bunch of scared kiddies sheep-like in their need to treat the Project fear rhetoric as if it is gospel

It's harder to sell 'remain' because we're already in the EU and there's discontent and rightly or wrongly many of today's issues are being laid at the EU. It's a lot easier to sell 'leave' because it plays on ideals and aspirations for the future and it's selling the notion of a favourable outcome by leaving. Everything that is bad today is at least in part because of EU membership and everything that COULD be good in the future will come from leaving the EU. Classic sales technique right there - what you have is inadequate, what you could have is available to you if you agree to buy right now...

That view is the opposite to conventional wisdom - which is that it is much harder for an organisation pushing for change to win over one seeking the status quo - I do sense that Remain ae getting nervous