EU referendum

[Chancy Termites]

The FX market is definitely feeling the pressures of the potential brexit. You're right that its uncertainty, but it is very much the uncertainty of brexit. The pound is depreciated against lots of major currencies, enough to offer an insight into the thoughts of real money and other investors. Lets not forget an outvote is just the start. Then we enter negotiation phase, its not obvious that there will be upward pressures on the pound during a protracted negotiation period.

For me, enough researchers, economists, investors and alike are suggesting brexit will pose real risks to the UK government. Say what you will about them, they're not stupid, they're probably not even as vested as other commentators as they will continue to operate regardless. Players in the FX market would probably welcome a disintegration of the euro, so the fact that there are voices in that market warning against is enough to pay attention. I think Moody's even came out and said they'd consider a negative on the UK credit rating further down the line.

This whole talk about the in campaign being scaremongers is disingenuous in my opinion. The out campaign do nothing but scare monger over refugees, immigration, loss of control. its cognitive dissonance. We have no control over what our politicians do, and the legislation they pass, we just like to think we do.

For me this whole topic boils down to matters much more important than immigration (something which will continue unabated, regardless). Its about the continuing trend to regional trading blocs. The biggest powers in the world, the USA, Russia, China, are all powerhouses. Huge gdps, huge populations, huge opportunity for industries. The EU can offer the same. Look at bodies such as the IMF, NATO, the UN, all have a great deal of clout because they are many voices, hopefully, pulling in one direction. Globalisation is a truly irresistible force, and it would, in my opinion, be madness to isolate ourselves from this. If we had ever taken the EU seriously, we could have a serious voice at the table and could shape it from within, on our own there is no hope.

honestly, even if we cut our ties with europe, we obviously would still want access to the market. Which will mean ceding some elements of sovereignty, to me its not obvious why we would want to do this without being able to steer.

Further, Europe has made great strides to facilitate peace across a traditionally warlike region. Some say its not due to the EU, some say the EU played a part, but whatever you think, being intrinsically tied with our closest neighbours offers greater security in general, than not being. Sure maybe mistakes were made during the recent refugee crisis, but a part being an active part of the EU means we can develop closer ties and prevent these issues from happening again. Further, the EU with britain is stronger than without, so on a certain level, we can offer a great deal more to the rest of europe and help to steer it closer to where we think it should be. It really should be asked, but why are the likes of Putin keen for brexit, whereas those such as Obama are not. We can help build the type of eurozone we want as a part of it, and I firmly believe we should do. If the EU weakens, it is bad for the UK in a lot of ways, the EU will have less weight. Sancitons on Russia, helping to draft a nuclear agreement with Iran, it could all potentially affect us in terms of economics and security.

I know people like to hark on about trade, and I do believe they have valid points. However, last time I checked our trade surplus was with germany, not the remaining member states. If memory serves, and it may well not, we rely a great deal on trade from the EU and account for what, 10/20% of total EU exports, or similar? Someone can confirm I am sure. But even if we had a surplus, people show a glaring disregard for both sides of the economic equilibrium. If we are buying more from the EU than we sell, this doesn't necessarily put us in a better bargaining spot. For one, input costs could rise. How does that filter down through a company's structure? It may very well result in cost cutting. What gets cut first? Staff. How many SMEs buy obtain input products from the relatively low cost eu? What happens if they become more expensive, can that company even operate. I strongly believe that tarrifs will rise, I think its pretty fair to say the EU will continue to try and prop itself up. This may simply result in more industry in the EU as they fill the expected void from a reduction in exports to the UK. I do think people underestimate how strong the EU is at negotiating trade agreements. Its a no brainer for a lot of countries. negotiate with the EU, one legislation to cover 27 countries. Great.

That said, I'm wearily omniscient over the whole thing. i think most politicians know the direction the globe is heading, and what we need to do/be/offer in order to be a part of it.

So much to disagree with in this post.

Currency fluctuations are very much a short term phenomenon and derive from the uncertainty not the possible vote for independence. If the polls showed we were 90% in favour of independence then that uncertainty would not exist. Long term there's as much reason to suspect that the pound will rise against the Euro as fall, that is if there still is a Euro which is not necessarily the case as most of the EU's banking industry remains on a precipice.

As for economists, most thought we should join the Euro; few saw Labour's credit bubble crash coming and just as few saw the problems building in French, German and Italian banks, which Greece has been sacrificed to pay for.

Moody's and other credit agencies were blithely unaware of the meltdown taking place around them too. All in all I think you're about the last person left who gives their opinion any credence.

The biggest powers in the world, the USA, Russia, China, are not in the EU, nor are Australia, the UAE, Iceland, New Zealand and plenty of other countries both large and small who manage fine.

Once we become independent we can stay in NATO if we wish, we will still be one of just 5 permanent members of the UN security council and we can retake our seat at the WTO. Independence means more internationalism for the UK not less.

The 28 member counties of the EU accounted for 30% of world trade in 1980 which has fallen to 17% now and looks set to drop below 10% inside a decade as there continues to be no overall growth in the EU, unlike literally all other trading blocs in the world. Independence means removing ourselves from this millstone. The EU also represents a declining market for UK exports so in short it's becoming less significant to us over time and that process is continuing.

There is no reason at all why we should be any less strong at negotiating trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world than they are. None.

You make no mention of our net contribution to the EU's funds - some 10 billion per year that we could have back immediately. What about the added expense of the CAP which inflates our food bills by an even larger amount? Imagine the positive benefits on our balance of trade when we get our fishing waters back - a primary industry with a ready export market worldwide.

First and foremost though, by making this an economic argument you are suggesting that you are prepared to put a price on your right to vote for your legislators. We should not be ruled by appointees - let's leave tha for China and the ghosts of the USSR.

Cameron has accidentally given us a chance to choose independence and remove ourself from the clutches of The Enemies Of Democracy. We have to take it as we might not get another opportunity for decades. And we will be financially better off anyway.

 

[BimboBob]

So much to disagree with in this post.

Currency fluctuations are very much a short term phenomenon and derive from the uncertainty not the possible vote for independence. If the polls showed we were 90% in favour of independence then that uncertainty would not exist. Long term there's as much reason to suspect that the pound will rise against the Euro as fall, that is if there still is a Euro which is not necessarily the case as most of the EU's banking industry remains on a precipice.

As for economists, most thought we should join the Euro; few saw Labour's credit bubble crash coming and just as few saw the problems building in French, German and Italian banks, which Greece has been sacrificed to pay for.

Moody's and other credit agencies were blithely unaware of the meltdown taking place around them too. All in all I think you're about the last person left who gives their opinion any credence.

The biggest powers in the world, the USA, Russia, China, are not in the EU, nor are Australia, the UAE, Iceland, New Zealand and plenty of other countries both large and small who manage fine.

Once we become independent we can stay in NATO if we wish, we will still be one of just 5 permanent members of the UN security council and we can retake our seat at the WTO. Independence means more internationalism for the UK not less.

The 28 member counties of the EU accounted for 30% of world trade in 1980 which has fallen to 17% now and looks set to drop below 10% inside a decade as there continues to be no overall growth in the EU, unlike literally all other trading blocs in the world. Independence means removing ourselves from this millstone. The EU also represents a declining market for UK exports so in short it's becoming less significant to us over time and that process is continuing.

There is no reason at all why we should be any less strong at negotiating trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world than they are. None.

You make no mention of our net contribution to the EU's funds - some 10 billion per year that we could have back immediately. What about the added expense of the CAP which inflates our food bills by an even larger amount? Imagine the positive benefits on our balance of trade when we get our fishing waters back - a primary industry with a ready export market worldwide.

First and foremost though, by making this an economic argument you are suggesting that you are prepared to put a price on your right to vote for your legislators. We should not be ruled by appointees - let's leave tha for China and the ghosts of the USSR.

Cameron has accidentally given us a chance to choose independence and remove ourself from the clutches of The Enemies Of Democracy. We have to take it as we might not get another opportunity for decades. And we will be financially better off anyway.

Beautiful. Just beautiful.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Or it could just be a load of hot air.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

The EU has nothing to do with European peace!!!!!

The Monnet Plan was nothing more than a coal grab from Germany to boost the post war French economy. It caused great tension in Germany as the french basically stole Saarland and so they would have the upper hand in coal and steel production. The ECSC was a measure to keep Germany on side while still allowing France to control the coal. This was not a peace plan it was a punishment to Germany.

The EU has done fuck all for peace apart from reducing it by it's expansionist plans to the east.

Exactly this. This 'Safer' nonsense is exactly that, complete nonsense. The only way this view can be supported is that
within an economic union it is unlikely that we'd fight amongst ourselves, so if you believe that our traditional enemies of France and Germany
are potential military threats to Britain, then the idea has some credence. The truth is that they're not, but other countries are, hence our
membership of NATO.

 

[TonyM]

As an interested outsider, I'm hoping for but not betting on an exit. When everything comes down to the actual vote, people tend to fear major changes and vote accordingly. As an American that would love to move to Europe (be that the UK, Ireland, or elsewhere) so that I can experience a different culture (though not shockingly so different), I find it nearly impossible to find any company willing to jump through the hoops to attempt to bring in a well qualified person in from outside the EU. I know I am more capable and have more experience than most of the people that ultimately end up in the positions (per a couple phone calls that I've had with companies). It just isn't worth their time and effort to try and bring over the candidate that they wish to hire versus a lesser candidate (not my words).

So it is completely for selfish reasons that I hope that the "Brexit" happens. I'd love to live for a few years over there, but it is nearly impossible for me to do so legally. I would hope that a change would make it easier or at least equally as difficult to bring me in versus somebody else in the EU.

Great point. The high quality you could employ from around the world if you had an efficient visa system gives you a competitive edge. You could still employee from the EU too but just cherry pick the best.

 

[aguero93:20]

The 28 member counties of the EU accounted for 30% of world trade in 1980 which has fallen to 17% now and looks set to drop below 10% inside a decade

Were China included in 1980? I'd say their growth has a lot to do with that figure.

 

[Zuriblue]

Were China included in 1980? I'd say their growth has a lot to do with that figure.

India as well. The European countries have mature economies so will see a decline as Pacific Rim and Asian countries economies expand.

The WTO stuff quoted by CT is actually bullshit. The UK has been a WTO member since 1995 and a member of GATT since 1948. The EU seat is in addition to the countries individual seats not replacing them.

The trouble is that a lot of the Brexit crowd are putting out stuff that is, at best, misleading and, at worst, completely untrue.

 

[mcfcinprague]

India as well. The European countries have mature economies so will see a decline as Pacific Rim and Asian countries economies expand.

The WTO stuff quoted by CT is actually bullshit. The UK has been a WTO member since 1995 and a member of GATT since 1948. The EU seat is in addition to the countries individual seats not replacing them.

The trouble is that a lot of the Brexit crowd are putting out stuff that is, at best, misleading and, at worst, completely untrue.

As are the Brin crowd, it's what happens at referendum/election time

 

[Zuriblue]

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

For me this whole topic boils down to matters much more important than immigration (something which will continue unabated, regardless). Its about the continuing trend to regional trading blocs.

No one has yet explained why we can't be part of a European regional trading bloc without having to undergo ever closer political and economic union. Japan, China, Russia & the USA are discrete political entities so don't have to worry about that. Yet there are regional trading blocs in North America and the Far East that involve multiple countries and where there is no requirement for closer political and economic integration.

I have no problem with a single European market. It makes great economic sense. But I do not want a European Union, which is what's on offer. And if we don't feel we should be a full member of that (including joining the Euro) then the only alternative is to come out.