EU referendum

[coleridge]

Still waiting for those benefits we get, but you can add in the consequences if you can get past pure speculation, seriously the whole stay in campaign has been doom & gloom without resorting to fact.

We do NOT have "Free" trade.
You would have to be barmy to leave your front door open every night just to do business, so why are borders different.
You say none of the 28 countries "Need" us, why then do we "Need" them ?, nor as you know full well is it 28 countries who make the call, they will do as they are told by Germany and France, where are they going to find a market for the goods and services they depend on ?.
If we are out, then who has the pressure on them to do a deal, besides losing the 12+billion we tip up you somehow think they want to lose one of their biggest markets at a time when they will need to make up that shortfall.
Germany will not sit still as the only big cash cow left in while seeing its UK market disappear.
As we get our fishing grounds back, just where are they going to get their fish ?.

Argue the logic out of that ;0)

Most of the fish are already gone due to human activity. UNESCO says 2050 is about the end of sustainable wildlife in the seas and oceans. But you keep worrying about those quotas.

 

[Helmet Cole]

Most of the fish are already gone due to human activity. UNESCO says 2050 is about the end of sustainable wildlife in the seas and oceans. But you keep worrying about those quotas.

Nicely dodged the actual question there ;-)

 

[Chippy_boy]

Still waiting for those benefits we get, but you can add in the consequences if you can get past pure speculation, seriously the whole stay in campaign has been doom & gloom without resorting to fact.

We do NOT have "Free" trade.
You would have to be barmy to leave your front door open every night just to do business, so why are borders different.
You say none of the 28 countries "Need" us, why then do we "Need" them ?, nor as you know full well is it 28 countries who make the call, they will do as they are told by Germany and France, where are they going to find a market for the goods and services they depend on ?.
If we are out, then who has the pressure on them to do a deal, besides losing the 12+billion we tip up you somehow think they want to lose one of their biggest markets at a time when they will need to make up that shortfall.
Germany will not sit still as the only big cash cow left in while seeing its UK market disappear.
As we get our fishing grounds back, just where are they going to get their fish ?.

Argue the logic out of that ;0)

i can't be arsed mate, I've been on here for hours arguing. There's umpteen benefits we have. Have a google and if you can't be arsed with that, just read this for starters:

http://news.cbi.org.uk/reports/our-...t-2-benefits-of-eu-membership-outweigh-costs/

I didn't say none of the 28 countries need us. I said most of them don't need us as much as we need them. There's 27 of them and only one of us. In simple terms, each of them only feels 1/27th of the pain we do, if we fail to reach agreement. I shouldn't have to say this, but on this forum it seems even the bleending obvious needs stating, so I will add that it is of course not as simple as that since we don't trade with each of the 27 equally, but the point remains.

So the pressure is far more on us to do a deal than it is on nearly all of the other states. And you've completely ignored my comment about the political consequences. France in particular is extremely sensitive to the fact that if we get to leave and yet keep all the benefits and none of the downsides, everyone else will want to leave and that would mean the end of the EU as we know it. There is very strong political incentive for them to play hardball with us, let alone the opportunity to stick two fingers up to us, which as we all know, the French love to do given the remotest opportunity.

Honestly I think anyone who imagines we can leave and simply and easily renegotiate an agreement for goods AND SERVICES (a very big factor for our service-led economy), they are simply dreaming. Really it will never happen like that in a year of Sundays. It will be long, drawn out and painful. I can guarantee it.

 

[hgblue]

We've been around and around and around this loop. All 28 countries need to agree and no single country needs us as much as we need the EU. It's not in the interests of perhaps 20 countries to agree to the terms we would seek. That's why it would be a very difficult negotiation. And if they were all to agree that effectively gives the green light to every other country that might think about leaving. There's already pressure in France, Germany, Holland and others for exit referendums. It could mean the break up of the EU if the UK left and ended up with a great deal that everyone else thought they would like too.

@blueonblue: OK, I'll file you in the "I want to leave and bugger the consequences" camp, which is fine.

If it ends up with the break up of the EU, and a restoration of the common market of friendly nations trading together but running their own affairs, then that would be a very desirable outcome.

 

[Chippy_boy]

In doing my 10 second google for blueonblue above, I came across this, which I had not read before:

http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-iss...ness-facts/eu-two-futures-cbi-april-2016-pdf/

I would honestly suggest people have a read and try to keep an open mind whilst doing so. And then by all means make your mind up. But there's some interesting data to support what I've been saying, for example:

In the negotiations, the balance of power would be held by the other 27 member states

While it will be in the interest of both sides to secure a new trade deal, it would be more critical for the UK. In trading terms, 45% of the UK’s exports go to the EU, compared to just 7% of EU exports which come to the UK. In GDP terms, 12.6% of UK GDP is at stake compared to 3.1% of EU GDP.20 There will also be a broader political dimension to the negotiations. In the year following the UK referendum, both France and Germany will have elections. National politics will have an impact on what these countries are willing to offer the UK. Failure to reach a deal would have a much greater impact on the UK than the rest of the EU which gives the other 27 member states the stronger bargaining position.

 

[Chippy_boy]

If it ends up with the break up of the EU, and a restoration of the common market of friendly nations trading together but running their own affairs, then that would be a very desirable outcome.

I agree, but one which France, Belgium, Germany et al would fight tooth and nail to avoid.

 

[hgblue]

I agree, but one which France, Belgium, Germany et al would fight tooth and nail to avoid.

The only way this happens is if the people of a major member state grow some balls and set an example. Others would most certainly follow.

 

[coleridge]

Nicely dodged the actual question there ;-)

I wasn't answering your question. Don't flatter yourself. I am not interested in your childish debate. You keep reading the Daily Mail as it clearly keeps you in your place.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Kent is a classic case in point for the misinformation.

Kent was back 50+ years ago a wealthy holiday destination. Air travel came made it cheap to go to Spain to Greece etc so people especially from London started travelling abroad (as many on this site do) this crippled and closed businesses as happened to Blackpool. Poor empty areas, boarded up B and B's then became a place where immigrants or the poor could go . Then the same locals who went on holiday to Greece themselves rather than blaming free market economics decided to blame immigration for the decline of places like Margate. But it's all about economic decline and is no different to what happened in the Rhonnda or mill towns of Lancy.

Also it mustn't be forgotten that Yorkshire doesn't have the monopoly on closed mines and the effect on pit villages. Betteshanger was the last pit to go back to work after the strike.

The point I made regarding house prices appears to have been misconstrued into me thinking that Kent was full millionaires pads - far from it as outlined above. I have seen many deprived areas in Kent when travelling to a colleagues home in Canterbury. However the point I was making regards nobody wanting wholesale house building if it affects property values still stands if the property is worth £100k or a £million - the owner still potentially stands to lose out.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Not necessarily Japan, but maybe Norway, Iceland or Switzerland? All a similar distance to Holland and all will be just as easy to trade with if we're out. And what about the UK candle stockists who get 30% of their candles from Holland? Likewise, the Dutch candles become more expensive and the Wolverhampton company is in a good place to pick up that slack.

Fuck me - thats just caused a run on candles in the shops around Anfield.............candles could become more expensive? UK candles going for export - how will they cope !!!