FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

[Zin 'messiah' Zimmer]

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That’s just given me a semi

 

[NZBlue]

Tell you what. Quite happy to do a charity bet with you witnessed by an independent bluemooner.
You hit red or black 10 times on the bounce, I'll pay £500 to your chosen charity, you don't you pay £500 to mine.
Deal?

I'll take that bet

10 times in a row you get red or black- the only other outcome is an edge and that's not going to happen.

When do we do the observed bet?

 

[SebastianBlue]

Expected values, it doesn't change the undeniable fact that each draw is an independent event and therefore they have exactly an even chance of being drawn at home on each occasion.

Well, actually, a statistician (I happen to be one) would say the method of draw is by no means random, meaning they don’t have exactly an even chance on each occasion.

If it was a truly random selection process, then yes, that would be the case and probabilistic analysis would confirm no bias. But, as it is not, expected values could be used as a baseline to determine how close to random the selection process actually is and give some indication to the level of bias inherent in the process.

 

[cookster]

I'll take that bet

10 times in a row you get red or black- the only other outcome is an edge and that's not going to happen.

When do we do the observed bet?

Ha Ha, didn't write that well did I.

 

[chaddblue]

Fantastic draw. Will be a fantastic occasion and a great match

Rags got the 2nd best team they could have done so not sure why people have a problem with it

 

[MCFC1993]

Looks like we'll be beating United in the final on the way to our treble.

 

[Bluemoonadam]

Bit unfair, that.

Embedding the team in and, really, still in learning stages.

Maybe, hope we batter them anyway.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Try getting HTTTHTHTHH in that order or any other combination, it’s all the same odds

The issue is the draw is not even as close to random as flipping a coin (which is also not actually random), hence why aggregate expected value probabilities come in to play, which is beyond pure discrete event probability.

It’s the basis of many areas of science (statistical confidence/significance) and actuarial computation, among other things.

 

[NZBlue]

Ha Ha, didn't write that well did I.

Actually from my perspective I think you wrote it very well :-)

 

[Zin 'messiah' Zimmer]

Fantastic draw. Will be a fantastic occasion and a great match

Rags got the 2nd best team they could have done so not sure why people have a problem with it

Because of the entitlement that’s crept into the fanbase…

We are still head and shoulders above them, but the old fear of ‘inferiority’ is kicking in and a majority want us given a free run…

Welcome the competition is my view, we excel in such moments and this will be no different