FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

[Franny 1234]

Would of preferred a northern away tie. So my grandson gets to see more grounds.But can't complain a home tie against a side we're more than capable of beating Hopefully Wembley here we come. CTID

 

[berryblue]

Burnley will sell 6000 easily and it will be lively before and after in town .

Not if the buggers stick on TV at 8pm Monday night.

 

[paska]

Wondering if who tosses the coin has a bearing on the outcome ???

If they’re on Gill’s dime it certainly does

 

[paska]

Also, I was trying not to get in to this because a few are already having a go at me for making pretty basic statistical factual points about the discussion, but ‘flipping a coin’ is absolutely not an equivalent to the cup draw process.

The discrete event probabilities in each are quite different and the Cup draw’s aggregate expected value probabilities are substantially more complex than simply flipping a coin hundreds of times.

To be clear, the cup draw process is not ‘random’. No statistician worth their salt if asked to create a ‘random’ number selection process would ever choose to have people affiliated with the organisation running the selection using their hands to draw balls out of a bowl on international television.

In fact, they should at least be using ‘no human interaction’ lottery standards, but they chose not to for… reasons.

Crooked reasons

 

[Alfie Budd]

The team were forced to do a promo tour of UAE before the Wigan game, and it backfired.

Wasn't the UAE trip a few days before we lost at home to Middlesbrough in the cup? Think it was the year after we lost to Uwe's Wigan.

 

[lasereyes]

OK, then you go and you need to hit red, red, black, black, red, red red, black, red, black in that order, who has the better odds of winning?

That's not the argument though is it? It's Scum getting 10 home draws in a row vs. not. If you roll a die 10 times and get 10 sixes, the odds of getting a six next time are theoretically still 1 in 6 - but only if the die is fair. Getting 10 in a row is clearly possible (1/1024 as was stated earlier) but every additional 6 raises the odds of the die being biased.

That said, I have no fucking clue if the draw is rigged. We've had pretty fair draws in the past few years. Some tough 'uns this year, but fairly easy for the past few years - including CL

 

[lasereyes]

Yes, the physical act is not ‘random’.

The concept (like most specific concepts of randomness) could be considered ‘random’, even if it is exceedingly difficult to actual create such a random system.

If anyone is interested in a deep dive (I am sure @dronefromsector7G and @Gray would love to read about this subject), this is a great primer on the problem with randomness (and how we perceive it, very often inaccurately).

The Crucial Thing a Computer Can’t Do

In order to produce true randomness, computers must reach outside themselves.

slate.com

To be clear, if you wanted to create a selection system that was easily influenced, but still maintained the appearance of randomness, you wouldn’t be far off with a process that involves people affiliated with an organisation pulling balls out of a bowl on television.

Appearance of randomness with ex-United players picking balls out of a glass bowl ...

 

[didsburyblu]

Not if the buggers stick on TV at 8pm Monday night.

As already stated can only possibly be on the Saturday only question is what time

 

[Lowtower]

When do they decide what time and date?

 

[Stephen230]

Didn’t we arrive back just the day before and Pellers turned up in a hoodie and jeans?

I think he rocked up in a hoodie when Forest beat us at home in the Cup. On one hand, you think, what the fuck does it matter what the manager’s wearing? But when he wears a smart suit every other week, it’s kind of giving out bad vibes of not being as professional as if it were a league game.