FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

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blueste41 said:
But you are using the wrong theory. Let's go back to the United 10 home draws in a row (since that's what we are really discussing) . As each draw is mutually exclusive of another the odds of being drawn at home remain constant at evens:-

Home, Home, Home, Home, Home Home Home, Home, Home, Home.
We would calculate the odds of that sequence being drawn as
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)
Now lets take another seemingly more random sequence of draws and calculate the odds of the sequence occurring
Home, Away, Away, Home, Home, Home, Away, Home, Away, Home
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)

If you truly believe the odds of United's next draw are any different to evens you should put money on it because you will be beating the true odds of the outcome.
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I'm not going to get into an argument with you pal, as what you've written above is correct, however your 2nd random sequence isn't the only way of being drawn at home 5 times and away 5 times, and since nobody really cares if it was HAHAHAHAHA or HHHHHAAAAA or any of the other 250 combinations of 5H and 5A, only that 5 were at home and 5 were away, your whole argument is flawed and incorrect.

You ARE correct, in that the theoretical probability that they will be drawn at home in the NEXT draw is 1/2, but what people are discussing here is the theoretical probability of them being drawn at home TEN TIMES IN A ROW.

10 home draws = 1/1024
9 home draws and 1 away draw (ANY ORDER) = 10/1024
8 home draws and 2 away (ANY ORDER) = 45/1024
7 home draws and 3 away (ANY ORDER) = 120/1024
6 home draws and 4 away (ANY ORDER) = 210/1024
5 home draws and 5 away (ANY ORDER) = 252/1024

then it's just reversed for homes and aways for the remaining

You're wrong, get over it, and don't let it spoil your day.

Oh, I won't be doing any more maths lessons as people don't really want to read this shit on a football forum ;)
 
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staffsblue said:
I agree. Was drinking in a pub near Marylebone full of them pre match and they were sound, even though some of them chose to drink poncey cocktails!
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I was drinking outside The Globe which was full of Brighton inside and out. No issues and had a laugh with them. I did read afterwards that there was a bit of trouble outside Wembley with some of theirs playing up which was corroborated by some Brighton fans themselves on one of their forums but every club has them to be fair.
 
blueste41 said:
But you are using the wrong theory. Let's go back to the United 10 home draws in a row (since that's what we are really discussing) . As each draw is mutually exclusive of another the odds of being drawn at home remain constant at evens:-

Home, Home, Home, Home, Home Home Home, Home, Home, Home.
We would calculate the odds of that sequence being drawn as
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)
Now lets take another seemingly more random sequence of draws and calculate the odds of the sequence occurring
Home, Away, Away, Home, Home, Home, Away, Home, Away, Home
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)

If you truly believe the odds of United's next draw are any different to evens you should put money on it because you will be beating the true odds of the outcome.
Click to expand...
Well, it’s more likely to be home cos they like to give em home draws ;)

But last time I checked there’s no market to bet on that.
 
the-ecstacy-of-eight said:
I'm not going to get into an argument with you pal, as what you've written above is correct, however your 2nd random sequence isn't the only way of being drawn at home 5 times and away 5 times, and since nobody really cares if it was HAHAHAHAHA or HHHHHAAAAA or any of the other 250 combinations of 5H and 5A, only that 5 were at home and 5 were away, your whole argument is flawed and incorrect.

You ARE correct, in that the theoretical probability that they will be drawn at home in the NEXT draw is 1/2, but what people are discussing here is the theoretical probability of them being drawn at home TEN TIMES IN A ROW.

10 home draws = 1/1024
9 home draws and 1 away draw (ANY ORDER) = 10/1024
8 home draws and 2 away (ANY ORDER) = 45/1024
7 home draws and 3 away (ANY ORDER) = 120/1024
6 home draws and 4 away (ANY ORDER) = 210/1024
5 home draws and 5 away (ANY ORDER) = 252/1024

then it's just reversed for homes and aways for the remaining

You're wrong, get over it, and don't let it spoil your day.

Oh, I won't be doing any more maths lessons as people don't really want to read this shit on a football forum ;)
Click to expand...


I was at the casino and saw it land on #17
5 times in a row, fortunately I had a tenner on it and let it ride.
 
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Franny 1234 said:
All our coach windows got smashed on our return from that. I forgot about them.
CTID
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Think it has to be rags in 2011, Chelsea in 1989 as top two c***s then it's a close one between Villa, wall pushers and even Spurs from 1981
 
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Eds said:
Think it has to be rage in 2011, Chelsea in 1989 as top c***s then it's a close one between Villa, wall pushers and even Spurs from 1981
Click to expand...
Chelsea fans still singing Roman Abramovich's name. Zero self awareness.
 
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