FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

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Would of preferred a northern away tie. So my grandson gets to see more grounds.But can't complain a home tie against a side we're more than capable of beating Hopefully Wembley here we come. CTID
 
SebastianBlue said:
Also, I was trying not to get in to this because a few are already having a go at me for making pretty basic statistical factual points about the discussion, but ‘flipping a coin’ is absolutely not an equivalent to the cup draw process.

The discrete event probabilities in each are quite different and the Cup draw’s aggregate expected value probabilities are substantially more complex than simply flipping a coin hundreds of times.

To be clear, the cup draw process is not ‘random’. No statistician worth their salt if asked to create a ‘random’ number selection process would ever choose to have people affiliated with the organisation running the selection using their hands to draw balls out of a bowl on international television.

In fact, they should at least be using ‘no human interaction’ lottery standards, but they chose not to for… reasons.
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Crooked reasons
 
blueste41 said:
OK, then you go and you need to hit red, red, black, black, red, red red, black, red, black in that order, who has the better odds of winning?
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That's not the argument though is it? It's Scum getting 10 home draws in a row vs. not. If you roll a die 10 times and get 10 sixes, the odds of getting a six next time are theoretically still 1 in 6 - but only if the die is fair. Getting 10 in a row is clearly possible (1/1024 as was stated earlier) but every additional 6 raises the odds of the die being biased.

That said, I have no fucking clue if the draw is rigged. We've had pretty fair draws in the past few years. Some tough 'uns this year, but fairly easy for the past few years - including CL
 
SebastianBlue said:
Yes, the physical act is not ‘random’.

The concept (like most specific concepts of randomness) could be considered ‘random’, even if it is exceedingly difficult to actual create such a random system.

If anyone is interested in a deep dive (I am sure @dronefromsector7G and @Gray would love to read about this subject), this is a great primer on the problem with randomness (and how we perceive it, very often inaccurately).

slate.com

The Crucial Thing a Computer Can’t Do

In order to produce true randomness, computers must reach outside themselves.
slate.com slate.com

To be clear, if you wanted to create a selection system that was easily influenced, but still maintained the appearance of randomness, you wouldn’t be far off with a process that involves people affiliated with an organisation pulling balls out of a bowl on television.
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Appearance of randomness with ex-United players picking balls out of a glass bowl ...
 
levets said:
Didn’t we arrive back just the day before and Pellers turned up in a hoodie and jeans?
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I think he rocked up in a hoodie when Forest beat us at home in the Cup. On one hand, you think, what the fuck does it matter what the manager’s wearing? But when he wears a smart suit every other week, it’s kind of giving out bad vibes of not being as professional as if it were a league game.
 
the-ecstacy-of-eight said:
There are 252 different combinations of (different ways of gettings) 5H and 5T ------> 10!/((5!)(5!)) = 252

There is only 1 combination of (way of getting) 10H (or 10T whichever one you prefer) ------> 10!/10! = 1

You then use this value and multiply it by 0.5(to the power of 10) to find the probability of the event occurring.

Remember probability tree diagrams from school/college? Well, I used to teach them, along with all of the Mathematics on any syllabus up to and including A-level Further Mathematics, for about 20 years ;)
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But you are using the wrong theory. Let's go back to the United 10 home draws in a row (since that's what we are really discussing) . As each draw is mutually exclusive of another the odds of being drawn at home remain constant at evens:-

Home, Home, Home, Home, Home Home Home, Home, Home, Home.
We would calculate the odds of that sequence being drawn as
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)
Now lets take another seemingly more random sequence of draws and calculate the odds of the sequence occurring
Home, Away, Away, Home, Home, Home, Away, Home, Away, Home
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)

If you truly believe the odds of United's next draw are any different to evens you should put money on it because you will be beating the true odds of the outcome.
 
lasereyes said:
That's not the argument though is it? It's Scum getting 10 home draws in a row vs. not. If you roll a die 10 times and get 10 sixes, the odds of getting a six next time are theoretically still 1 in 6 - but only if the die is fair. Getting 10 in a row is clearly possible (1/1024 as was stated earlier) but every additional 6 raises the odds of the die being biased.

That said, I have no fucking clue if the draw is rigged. We've had pretty fair draws in the past few years. Some tough 'uns this year, but fairly easy for the past few years - including CL
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Since we're now addressing the central concern of many, namely that draws are rigged in United's favour because they always get Home draws I don't see how that is true. Surely the quality of the opposition is as important (if not more so) than if you face them home and away?
In essence the Blues that believe it is rigged are saying that United V West Ham and then United V Fulham is an easier sequence of draws than Bristol V City and then City V Burnley.
 
Stephen230 said:
I think he rocked up in a hoodie when Forest beat us at home in the Cup. On one hand, you think, what the fuck does it matter what the manager’s wearing? But when he wears a smart suit every other week, it’s kind of giving out bad vibes of not being as professional as if it were a league game.
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I doubt Pellers turned up in a hoodie for the Forest game as it was more than three yeras before he joined us.
 
Alfie Budd said:
Wasn't the UAE trip a few days before we lost at home to Middlesbrough in the cup? Think it was the year after we lost to Uwe's Wigan.
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I had the dubious pleasure of being at that one, bloody awful game. From memory we did the promo thing and supposedly arrived back late Friday/Early Saturday! (getting our priorities right!)
One game I would like to block from my memory.
Remember 2 main things about that one, the first was that Middlesbrough had a Jack Whitehall lookalike in goal . The 2nd was getting some very strange looks in the Family Stand from both my daughter and fellow 'attendees' about my 'emotions' during the game. Have tried to avoid the North/ Family Stand since, wherever possible!
 
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