French politics | Macron calls shock GE

[mat]

With the French election a year away it’s time to look at the main runners and riders.

Macron. Centrist, polling around 40%

Le Pen. Far right, looks like she will provide a closer race than last time out

Melenchon. Far left, considered to pose bigger risks than Le Pen.

Polling currently showing first round voting intentions similar to 2017 which were

Macron 24.8%
Le Pen. 26.0%
Rest 35.1%
Centre right 14.2%

But voting intentions for second round are showing a swing to Le Pen. Last time out the second round result was

Le Pen 46.5%
Macron 53.5%

Next few months look to be crucial for Macron’s chances of re-election with his handling the vaccine rollout and getting France out of its current lockdown and the economy beginning to show signs of recovery.

A Le Pen or Melenchon victory won’t certainly result in a radical government with the legislative likely to curtail their more extreme tendencies. However although Le Pen has rowed back from her desire to leave the EU she remains openly hostile to it and we can reasonably expect Frexit to never be far away from front and centre should she win the presidency.

It was such a neutral thought-provoking post up to the point you started on the nasty lefty.

Redirect Notice

Looking at his policies what are you afraid of. Frexit?

Macron is currently portrayed in some quarters as incredibly authoritarian during Covid. Also his handling of the yellow vest movement pre Covid and the police brutality that came with them hasn't been forgotten by the electorate.

I'll get looking at various sources and come back to you on my predictions for it.

I’d favour a Melenchon victory over Le Pen, and Macron over either of them.

A Le Pen win would, I predict, see the rise of nationalism on the continent which can never be seen as a good thing.

Indeed.

She was close the previous to last election IIRC?

Her tactic of gaining support from lost fishing town etc almost won it for her.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

With the French election a year away it’s time to look at the main runners and riders.

Macron. Centrist, polling around 40%

Le Pen. Far right, looks like she will provide a closer race than last time out

Melenchon. Far left, considered to pose bigger risks than Le Pen.

Polling currently showing first round voting intentions similar to 2017 which were

Macron 24.8%
Le Pen. 26.0%
Rest 35.1%
Centre right 14.2%

But voting intentions for second round are showing a swing to Le Pen. Last time out the second round result was

Le Pen 46.5%
Macron 53.5%

Next few months look to be crucial for Macron’s chances of re-election with his handling the vaccine rollout and getting France out of its current lockdown and the economy beginning to show signs of recovery.

A Le Pen or Melenchon victory won’t certainly result in a radical government with the legislative likely to curtail their more extreme tendencies. However although Le Pen has rowed back from her desire to leave the EU she remains openly hostile to it and we can reasonably expect Frexit to never be far away from front and centre should she win the presidency.

Strange how a party on the left who want to provide decent healthcare , pensions (already far far better than the UK) Services and Welfare are seen to pose 'bigger risks'' than a bunch of racists / facists. What is wrong with people?

 

[KPXBLN]

Too soon.

On current trends, Macron will be re-elected.

Also, way too soon.

PS. German elections this year, Merkel is not standing, CDU mired in sleaze (nowhere near as bad as the Tories, but it matters in Germany), voters went for CDU because of Merkel, Greens looking strong, SPD have stopped bleeding, AfD becalmed at 10%.

I don't really follow it closely enough to have a well-informed opinion, but my friends who do follow politics here reckon that the guy CDU are seemingly going to pick as their candidate (Laschet) is less likely to win than the other guy (Söder) they were considering.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Vote is on Sunday. Polls are tightening up and some now have Le Pen in front of the two horse run off. Very worrying. Would be an absolute gift to Putin if she won.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Hopefully she doesn't win.

But if she does I'd be in favour of Olaf Scholz sending in the tanks to denazify France.

 

[bluethrunthru]

News just in - Its been confirmed Vladimir Putin has already cast his 750k votes for Marine Le Pen

 

[mat]

Le Pen will either win the first round or lose by 2%.

That will make French voters shit the bed. The French Tony Blair will win the second round with a decent margin.

 

[JRockBlues]

Isn't Senor Tebas a supporter of Le Pen? That's enough for me to want Macron to win.

 

[mat]

 

[ZenHalfTimeCrock]

Le Pen will either win the first round or lose by 2%.

That will make French voters shit the bed. The French Tony Blair will win the second round with a decent margin.

Hope so.

Maybe needs translating into French.